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The 2023 Winter Outlook

Friday, November 8, 2019

Friday: Yesterday Summed it Up

Good morning. Big chill out there today! Just wait till tonight when temps crash into the 20s.

Summary:
  • Weak storm last night left a few inches of snow in the Mtns of New England
  • Very cold tonight into tomorrow
  • Storm on Monday night-Tuesday should favor interior New England for snow with the chance of some back end snow closer to the coast
    • I discussed yesterday why I did not believe this was a big winter storm threat for most areas closer to the coast
  • Historical cold arrives Wednesday with temperatures crashing well below normal
    • Hat and gloves weather
    • Lasts at least through next weekend


Our weak storm system last night left a few inches of snow in the mountains of New England and a coating in other areas up there. To the south, it was mostly a cold rain. Cold temps are here to stay with some moderation by Monday. The big news making cold shot arrives Wednesday. 

The storm system we have been discussing for Tuesday is being projected (for now) as I expected yesterday. Remember I mentioned the chances for snow near coasts was unlikely due to no blocking in place and the storm all coming down to timing between the northern and southern jet streams. Currently models have a inland frontal wave of snow with maybe the chance for a changeover for areas just off the coast as the storm ends.

The European model shows this below valid Monday night into Tuesday. I think it is even too generous with the snow on the back end...



We will see what happens. Good shot however that several inches of show piles up in the interior with this. Given it is the 2nd week of November this makes sense vs the coast. I will keep providing updates as this evolves. Nothing is set in stone.


Then we have a potential historical chill incoming for Wednesday...



The above picture are temperatures Wednesday morning. It will feel colder with the wind chill. This is January weather!

Highs will only reach upper 20s to low 30s. This cold moderates a little but lasts at least through next weekend. It may be November but this is very rare.

Here is a larger scale view of temperature departures from normal Wednesday in F...



The air is directly from the Northern Canada...



This colder than normal pattern is here to stay for now but nothing lasts for ever. I would not be surprised to see moderation by the time December rolls around. 

Enjoy the day. Will have daily updates. 

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