Monday: Winter Pattern to Set In Early December

Good morning. A milder week gives way to colder conditions by Thanksgiving through the weekend. We then have a weather pattern developing that can support winter storm(s) for the first two weeks of December. The first period to watch for winter weather will be early next week for areas from the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England.

The winter storm outlook banner is also live again for the season. You can see it on the top of the website. I will update this as necessary.

So lets dive into it..

A storm system cuts to our west this week bringing mild conditions through Wednesday..

Things then cool down noticeably for Thanksgiving into the weekend and the overall weather pattern starts to turn favorable for winter storms...

Looking above is the pattern for the end of this weekend. This has a signature to it that is loaded with potential to produce a storm.  The relationship between the block (high pressure over Greenland) and big vortex of  low pressure over eastern Canada (50/50 low) will cause a big area of high pressure to develop over southern Canada and stay locked. This is signifigant because it becomes a cold air source and forces any storms that are developing to either have to slide under it or in most cases redevelop off the eastern seaboard. 

At this time I am confident that at least New England can see a signifigant winter storm from this set up by early next week. Areas in the northern Mid-Atlantic (north of MD, S NJ, DE) are also in play if the high pressure is strong enough. We will have to keep a close eye on this.

The latest GFS model gives an idea on how this can play out...

Notice how storm starts west but slides under high pressure and redevelops off coast by Monday. 

We will keep a close on on this. The pattern then stays favorable  for winter weather through the 2nd week of December. Things may be looking very white soon.