Friday: Significant Winter Storm to Impact Region Sun & Monday

Good morning. A signifigant winter storm will impact the Northeast Sunday and Monday.

My map below is my updated forecast. I will also have a video out tonight around 7pm.

Summary:

• A low pressure system approaches the area from the west on late Sunday morning, early afternoon
• Areas across interior PA and NW NJ will see all snow and ice as temperatures should not go above freezing for the duration of this event
• Areas to the southeast of I-287 expect mostly rain to start Sunday afternoon

• The low pressure system then redevelops into a powerful storm off the NJ coast on Sunday night into Monday
• expect heavy snow to break out across most of New England and NNJ by the time we get towards Monday morning
• This is where several inches of snow can pile up in those darker blue zones
• Rain should still hold on for areas south of I-78

• By Mid to late morning Monday rain should change to back end snow for most areas south of I-78
• A few accumulations are possible in these areas by Monday evening

• Storm then starts to pull away by Monday night

• I have concerns of this storm making last min shifts to the northeast
• this would mean NNJ doesn't see as much heavy snow

So as you can see this is a very complex and tricky storm system. The reason is we do no fully know exactly where this low pressure center will redevelop off the NJ coast. IF it develops more north than modeled then only New England sees the heavy snow. If it develops just south of Long Island then NNJ gets in on the heavy snow Sunday night.

The model European model below (from Sunday morning to Monday night) gives a general idea on how this may evolve. My concern is the European is a little too far south with the heavy snow and this can end up adjusting more north. This means NNJ is still in the wildcard position for this storm...

First off, this is a very signifigant storm system. Notice that back end band of heavy snow being showed towards the end of the loop. My concern stems on if this shifts more northeast compared to whats shown. If that happens then its mostly all of southern New England that sees the heavy snow. I have been burned before on storms like this making last min shifts. 

Notice even areas down to Phili can see snow at the tail end of this causing some accumulations. 

I am going to cut a video tonight around 6 or 7pm to discuss the evolution of the major winter storm.

Stay tuned.