Tuesday Weather Discussion: Snow to the North, Long Range Questions

Good morning. There are no changes to my snow forecast from yesterday. Snow is currently breaking out to the north and will continue all day. The jackpot areas will be the northern mtn ski resorts that should see over a foot of snow.  You can see on the radar below how the snow is spreading into the area....

Later today the heavy show shifts to interior Maine, Northern VT and NH as the low intensifies...

On the way backside cold air causes lake effect snows and snow showers for the areas that are being hit right now. Overall a ski country special.

From there we have a clipper that can drop some light snow down in areas further south on Wednesday night and Thursday...

At this time most models are weakening this significantly as it comes more east which leaves the mid-Atlantic areas with just the chance at snow showers at this time. It bears watching however as these clippers can be sneaky. 


We then have to watch out for a storm that passes to our south Friday night...

There has been some speculation this can end up coming more north and effecting the northeast with a decent snowstorm. I am not sold on that idea at this time however. For one, the GFS is the only model that has suggested that and what it is showing in its upper air pattern is not backed up by any other models. Of course that doesn't mean this cant still trend to be a snowstorm but trying to be objective and look at all the forecast data suggests we should not get too excited on this one.

The GFS has handled the upper air energy a little differently as it tries to eject the southern piece out ahead of more ahead albeit it has started to trend less with this...

This can change but at this time I wouldn't expect the storm on Friday into Saturday.

From there the Jury is still out in week 2 and beyond. Models are indicating this pattern can default back to a more la nina look with a ridge in the southeast...

However, we cannot ignore that massive ridge over AK. That can deliver some serious cold so I am not sold on any warm ups yet leading up to Christmas. Maybe just a few days of moderation. I know I have been trying to get you guys a White Christmas so lets see how this plays out. There will be alot of storm activity next week and beyond its just a matter of where is it rain and where is it snow.

I am going to have a video out tonight at 7 or 8 that breaks down my long range thoughts in more detail.