Good morning. What a nice snowy day it was yesterday! The region saw about 3-6 inches with the 5-6 inch amounts falling where some impressive banding of snow set up (see snowfall reports here). I did not expect those bands to develop so far inland like they did. This was not my best forecast. I should have stuck to what I put out Friday morning...
Instead I adjusted it to this yesterday morning...
Why did I do this. Two reasons, the dry air initially really held back the precipitation and I did not expect that mesoscale banding to make up for it throughout the interior. The fact that the morning model suite showed the precipitation shield moving more east I decided to pull back the amounts. This was a mistake and I let getting burned in the past influence changing my forecast. So with all that being said I am 0-1 on the year. The good news is I think we have a lot to track this winter season.
I will be discussing future storm threats in a post tonight or tomorrow morning. Two periods of focus, middle of this week for mostly New England and again into early next week. Stay tuned!
I would think you didn't flop on the forecast. If changes in total amounts were made in less than 24 hrs is a minor hiccup but that didn't put you in the shame camp. People needs to be prepared within a day's advance. ��
ReplyDelete