Monday Pattern Update: Moderation in Temps This Week, Then Back to Cold

Good morning. As Christmas day is quickly approaching I figured I would take everyone through what to expect over the next two weeks.

In Summary:

• Temperatures will moderate this week, especially by Saturday
• Expect highs in the 40's and into the 50's by Saturday
• This will be due to a storm system passing to our west pulling up warm air from the south
• In the wake of this storm system a pool of bitter arctic air begins to work its way to our area by Christmas day
• Expect a seasonable to colder than normal Christmas with the chance at snow if things align properly
• This will be discussed more in my video below
• In the period up to New Years expect very cold conditions with at least one chance at snow

The short video below discusses my thoughts...

Here are some points from the video.....

The pattern comes down to a few major factors and it is important to consider these factors when also trying to interpret model printouts.

Here are the factors...

A MJO pattern (pattern of tropical thunderstorms that influence the jet stream) that is going into a favorable phase for cold to push east

A Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) that will be very negative

Colder than normal air available in Canada

Very volatile models (sign that pattern is in a period of transition)

As a preface to the video check out the kind of model chaos we are seeing. We go from a projection like this...

To this for the same peroid....

The seesaw will continue however we need to use some commons sense. At -EPO pattern as seen by higher than normal pressures in the Gulf of Alaska is supposed to result in this...

Which looks a lot like the second model image. Also, the MJO going into phase 8 is supposed to result in this...

The cold air that is certain to move into the heartland next week is off the charts (double negative digits)....

This is due to air being discharged directly into the United States from the North Pole, thanks to the EPO. This will bleed to the east by Christmas or just beyond. I do not buy the models that keep the cold air locked to our west. 

Check out the strength of this arctic high!...

More to come this week. Stay tuned.