Below is my final snowfall forecast for tomorrow....
*note: the upper end of ranges i.e. 6 inch 8 inch amounts will be more localized. For lower lieing areas i expect more wide range of 3 to 4 inch amounts. This is most of the forecast area*
Here's a good gauge:
NYC: 3" on non paved
Phili: 2-3"
Baltimore: 2-3"
Princeton: 4"
Coastal NJ: 3-4" (less on road)
Morristown: 3 to 4"
Boston: 3-4
Hartford: 4"
Interior Mass/Me 4-8"
I made some adjustments based on the latest data that came in this morning. I am fairly confident in a broad area of 3-6 inches with the highest amounts up in eastern New England. There still will be some mixing along the southern coasts and on Cape Cod. I did cut down the amount of mixing however and have an overall snowier solution seen above.
Snow spreads into the southern zones late tonight and makes its way into central-northern NJ by daybreak to late morning. New England starts to see the snow fly from late morning/early afternoon on. Snow ends late afternoon in the southern zones, early evening in central zones and early Sunday morning up to the north (New England). Overall it will make for an old fashioned snowy December day. Who's dreaming of a white Christmas?
Here is a model projection of the storm from late tonight through tomorrow...
In the wake of this storm the cold air is basically locked in for the majority of December. We will then have to turn our attention to the middle of next week and then again early the following week for storm potential. Winter is here folks. Let the games begin.
Play by play video forecast out tonight at 7 pm.
Thank you for taking the time to post this information. I look at several different sites, but you always seem to be the most accurate. Your effort and time are greatly appreciated.
ReplyDeleteThank you! Greatly appreciated
DeleteThis is so exciting! I've been dreaming of a White Christmas for the last few years... looks like I'm finally going to get my wish! Thank you for all that you do... I always look forward to your posts. Enjoy the snow!
ReplyDeleteYou too! Thanks
DeleteHi Willy, been a while. With all that mild weather in October and November, I got lulled into thinking that nothing too interesting was happening. But now we have tragic fires out in California once again, and something like a Nor'easter ready to crash into a cold trough over the east coast, as if it was January-February 2015 or 2016 all over again. And something like a "perma-ridge" hanging over the western mainland (thus the fires), along with a weak AO and vortex, and a thus a pulsating eastern trough (it pulls north a bit, then dips south, over and over). Whoa, what's going on???
ReplyDeleteIn my wakening stupor, I am looking at the usual WX tea-leaves. So what have we got? Looks like a developing La Nina in the equatorial Pacific. A neutral or even slightly positive NAO in the Atlantic. A negative Arctic Oscillation, but nothing much going on in terms of stratospheric warming. There's lots of snowpack over Siberia, but no real anomalies, about what is expected by now. Back to the Pacific, the MJO is mostly neutral, but I see a strongly positive PNA and a strongly negative EPO. So, back to the Pacific water temp anomaly map -- I don't see a big pocket of warm water in the Gulf of Alaska as in 15 and 16, but there is a pretty big warm pocket just above the La Nina cold flows in the Eastern Pacific, right off of Baja and maybe down as far as Guatemala. Is this what's driving the Pacific dynamics, is this what's supporting the return of the resistant western ridge (hopefully temporary -- I know that you eastern snow people like the wavy jet stream that is produced by this, but southern California needs some rain!)??
And then the mystery factor -- the overdue return of an anti-zonal (easterly) QBO. Looks like that might run through the winter season. So the set-up looks pretty complex and mysterious. Why does the Pacific seem to be active, seems to be driving the situation, and yet we're getting a loose polar vortex effect?
It's got me scratching my head! Awaiting your usual insight. Jim G
Jim, how you been man? The weather always throws surprises. I did not think we would get this kind of ridging along the west coast this year. It will be interesting to see if it holds. Right now 1995 1996 is actually a pretty damn good analog for this winter based on the start we are seeing and the current SSTA in the pacific.
DeleteThe stratosphere has not had a big warming yet but the models keep indicating it will warm and potentially result in a SSWE over the next few weeks. IF this occurs then this cold really has a chance to stay locked for this winter. Recent models have shown that there can be a few warm wave fluxes hitting the stratosphere so lets see what it results in.
We have a weak la nina currently but other temperature patterns in the pacific, some of which you just alluded to are varying the background state. The key might be that QBO though and its effect on transporting heat to the upper latitudes. This might be the X factor this year which will keep the polar vortex weak, the AO negative and cause all sorts of mischief in the lower 48.
This pattern should stay locked in for December. It will be interesting to see if we have a January pullback. If that strat warms however and that vortex rotates our side of the globe then any pullbacks will be brief.