Friday Afternoon Update: Very Cold, Light Snow Tonight, Storm Next Week?

Good afternoon. I am back from my ski trip now so normal posting will resume. The theme so far post Christmas has been the bitterly cold weather we are experiencing. It is currently 18 degrees in Morristown NJ which feels like 75 compared to the sub-zero temps I experienced in Vermont. 

The bitter cold will continue over the next 7 days at least as the air is sourced directly from the arctic...

This means well below normal temps...

This is very impressive and colder than I expected for December. Bundle up, many more single digits to teens to come for lows heading into the New Year!

So the next question naturally is will it snow?

Well it will snow lightly tonight into tomorrow morning. I do not expect much accumulation however...

Maybe up to an inch in spots but mainly a dusting.

We then turn to the middle of next week. Models were showing a potential significant storm for Wednesday and Thursday but have since backed off....

This can still change since we are over 5 days out. There actually are some players on the field here that could produce a fairly significant storm but its all about the timing....

We will have a strong impulse of energy (#2) dive in towards the Gulf.  This then can phase with northern jet stream energy (#3) if it is not too progressive. In order to slow down #2 and allow #3 to catch it we need to see #1 or the pacific trough pull back west. IF this happens we can have a major storm blow up and move up the coast.

The models are not showing this but there is enough time left for this to change. If I had to put a probability I this I would say 40% chance at this time. 

That's all for now, stay tuned for updates.