Sunday Morning Storm Update: Next 24 Hours Tell The Tale

Summary:

• There still exists the potential for a significant storm middle of this week
• Models are currently still offshore with this storm system 
• Over the next 24 hours better data sampling should help the models more accurately depict what will happen
• This is where we should see more trends (east vs west) develop
• any western trends would mean more impacts
• At this time I assign a 60% probability of impacts for eastern New England and maintain my 50% for ares more in the interior from the Mid-Atlantic into New England

Good morning. As we continue to monitor the evolution of a potential significant storm system for the middle of this week, important data points should help iron out details over the next 24 hours. 

As stands now, not much has changed since yesterday. All the major models are showing the storm develop just off shore with some impacting eastern New England. Ensemble members of these models also continue to indicate this has some room to move west. The key to all of this will be how these models trend with updated data sampling as our two pieces of energy start to come into range...

In many cases we start to see trends emerge as this energy is sampled better by the models in the 72-84 hours up to an event.


You can see how this energy is starting to come together by Wednesday...

The whole development of this storm comes down to how these two interact.  We will evaluate this today ,especially as the updated models come in this afternoon.

So to the current projections. Here are the model projections...

GFS...off shore but a strike to eastern New England

European...west of the GFS with a bigger strike from the eastern mid-atlantic to eastern new england

The ensemble spread (GFS model with varied inputs to test for error and reran multiple times)...

You can see some members still indicate a western spread (seen by red low dots).

What is even more impressive is how strong some of these members are. Anything in red below is sub 980 low pressure...

My image from 2 days ago also still stands, we need that trough to stay off the west coast (#1) as it will help pull storm west. It has started to trend this way but does still have more to go.

So we will wait and see how things look tonight when this updated sampled data comes in. At this time I assign a 60% probability to a hit along eastern New England and maintain my 50% probability of a hit more inland from Mid-Atlantic up into New England.


Stay tuned.