Snow starts to move into the western areas of the map later tonight. By early tomorrow morning the snow starts to make its way to the east. This is all colored areas on this map see snow start to fall including southern New England, NE PA and NW NJ. As the storm intensifies on Tuesday however the focus will then be more to the north. As the storm intensifies, warm air will get pulled into all areas near the coast which will result in rain, especially southeast New England.
I expect a good jackpot with this system for the mountain areas of the northeast. Over a foot of snow is possible for Ski areas especially in northern VT and Maine.
For the folks who live in NW NJ and NE PA its a tough forecast for later tonight/early tomorrow morning but I do believe the flakes fly as the approaching disturbance appears to have some muscle to it. A quick few inches in not out of the question especially in the mountain areas.
Moving to the projections, you can see snow spreads in late tonight/early tomorrow morning...
Not all models are showing the snow making it as far south as NNJ and NE PA but I think some will just maybe not AS south as seen above. I base this on the fact our disturbance will be decently strong...
Models still might strengthen this some as this approaches so that is why I left the chance for 1-2 inches in those more south zones on them map.
In any event, the focus then moves to the northern interior as this storm intensifies later on Tuesday due to an arctic disturbance moving in and phasing....
This causes the heavy snowfall to breakout on Tuesday through Tuesday night in the northern interior....
Notice the warm air/rain getting pulled in as I mentioned with heavy snow to the north.
In the wake of this storm very cold air moves in for the rest of the week...
We then will have to look for another chance of winter precipitation later in the weekend/early next week although I am not sold on anything yet.
Thanks for checking in.
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