Monday, June 19, 2017

Monday Morning Weather Discussion: Strong to Severe Storms Tonight

Good morning. This warm muggy air mass currently over the region will set the stage for big thunderstorms to fire up later this afternoon into this evening as a cold front approaches from the west.

The Storm Prediction Center has our area under an enhanced watch...

Front approaches from the west and the storms should start to enter the NJ area around 4-6pm...

Some of these storms will feature strong straight line wind, heavy rain, thunder and lightning. The best chance for the biggest storms will be west of the city where the air mass is  most unstable.

You can see a metric that gauges instability (ability for air to rise) in the atmosphere will be elevated...

Also, we have a very saturated and humid air mass for the cold front to run into...

Once the front approaches all of this warm moist air will rise condense and form towering clouds causing the storms.

By around 8-10pm all these storms should be cleared out.

The rest of the week then is moderate with temperatures in the low to upper 80's with the chance at more storms later in the week.

I will be tracking this on twitter later today @weatherwily

Monday, June 12, 2017

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: Bring on the Heat

Good morning. Our warmer than normal air mass arrived yesterday and it will persist until Wednesday. You can see below the high pressure system to our southeast bringing in the warm air from the south...

Temperatures today will be in the low to mid 90's. There will humidity in the air but it will not be as bad as it could be due to some drier air mixing in from the upper levels of the atmosphere.  Regardless, very hot day today.

The same hold true for Tuesday. Temperatures will be in the low 90's with sunshine. 

Releif from the heat comes on Wednesday as a backdoor cold front moves in from Canada...

This will break the heat as it approaches and high temperatuers will fall into the low 80's for Wednesday and into the 70's for Thursday and Friday.

On Friday however this frontal boundary drifts back north causing the chances for unsettled weather into the weekend.

Expect numerous showers to pop up Friday into the Weekend as impulses along this frontal boundary cause air to rise. You can see below the models trying to show this...

More of the same Saturday...

This doesn't mean all cloudy days with washouts. It means a mix of clouds and sun with a good chance of showers moving through. 

Highs will be in the upper 70's to low 80s for the end of the week.

Thats all for now I will keep my eye on the weekend in case anything changes. 

Friday, June 9, 2017

Friday Weekend Update: Summer Arrives

Good morning. We finally get a break for the choppy weather and begin our stretch of summer like weather this weekend. 

Today will feature mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 70's to low 80s.

As we get to Saturday, high pressure moves into control and result in a warm southwest flow of air into the region. This is where things start to heat up. Expect temperatures to reach the mid to upper 80's with Sunshine.

Sunday into early next week will be hot and humid. Expect temperatures in the low 90's for most spots. 

The heat arrives due to an upper level ridge of high pressure forming over the east...

This blocks out any large scale weather systems and allows us to move into a normal summer pattern of daytime heat and potential afternoon thunderstorms if conditions permit.

Looking at the longer range models it does appear this is a sustainable pattern change. This means welcome to summer!

Enjoy the weekend. 

Monday, June 5, 2017

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: More Unsettled Weather, Hot Next Week?

Good morning. As the story has been all spring, the pattern of cooler and unsettled weather will continue into this week. This  means multiple chances of showers with cloudy skies through most of this week. Temperatures will also be on the chilly side, especially tomorrow and Wednesday. Lets take a look...

A few rounds of showers will pass through southern areas today.....

As a cold front sags south tomrorow, more showers will fire up throughout the region from the morning into the afternoon...

By Tuesday late afternoon these showers should end and cooler conditions prevail into Wednesday as high pressure keeps the cold front to our south...

Wednesday will feature temperatures in the high 60's to lower 70's with mostly cloudy skies. Some sun will poke through. 

As we get into Thursday things will get a little warmer with temperatures in the 70's  with mostly cloudy skies. I do think some sun can break though Thursday but it is a tough call at this time.

By Friday, things warm up into the low 70's with mostly sunny skies. This should continue into the weekend although this is a high volatility pattern so we will have to watch closely. 

What is going on this spring?

Well as I mentioned in previous posts, the atmosphere is all clogged up along the east due to blocking of the jet stream. The image below shows this...

We have areas of high pressure to our west and to our north. This forces the jet stream south over the east coast (blue) causing cooler and unsettled conditions. This pattern has been very consistent over the past month. Will it break?

The good news is there are signs that this pattern can start to break down next week...

Notice in image above the models are hinting we can see the opposite with high pressure developing in the east which would allow warm air form the south to rise into the region. It is likely that next week will feel more like early summer. The question does remain however if this pattern will last or revert back to more of the same.

Time will tell. 

Tuesday, May 30, 2017

Tuesday: Taking a Look at The Week Ahead

Good morning. The holiday weekend ended up being ok. We saw rain yesterday but Saturday and Sunday turned out to be decent days. 

As we head into the rest of this week things will continue to be unsettled with more up and down weather.  Today will feature clouds with the chance of showers...

By tomorrow, the sun comes back out with temperature sitting in the mid 70's. This nice weather lasts into Thursday which will be a little cooler with temperatures in the low 70's due to a passing front Wednesday night.

Then the chop comes back as we head into the weekend. Friday will feature sun, but there is a chance at some showers and storm as we head into the afternoon as a front approaches...

For the weekend, a series of low pressure system will try to move through the region. This means the chances of unsettled weather are high. 

By the time we get to Saturday afternoon, the first low pressure wave moves through the north...

There may then be a break in the action until we get to later in the day on Sunday as a potential larger system is on its heals...

I still think we see sun on both days we just should have some showers to deal with as these impulses move through the region. 

So when does summer really arrive? Well, it still appears we have some time to go. The unsettled and cooler than normal pattern should continue into June. You can see the long range model projections below showing the cooler pocket over the east in the long range...

Eventually this pattern will break, but it has been remarkable how persistent it has been all spring. The heat will eventually come but until then expect more moderate temperatures with multiple chances at unsettled weather over the next 2 weeks. 

Friday, May 26, 2017

Memorial Day Weekend Update: Overall Not Bad

Good morning. As we all start the holiday weekend I thought I would give everyone a weather update.

Rain has moved out or the region and today for the most part isn't bad. Some afternoon showers are possible but nothing serious.

Tomorrow will be the nicest day with mostly Sunny skies and temperatures in the 70s.

Sunday starts off nice but clouds build as afternoon gets underway. Showers should enter the region by Sunday night and continue into Monday. Temperatures stay in the low 70s for this period.

So overall not too bad. Saturday is the day to be on the beach although it will be a little chilly. No outdoor activities should be impacted Sunday unless they run into the night and Monday just is not ideal.

Thanks for reading enjoy the weekend.

Monday, May 22, 2017

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: A Bumpy Ride

Good morning. Well I wish I had better news but it looks to be a very unsettled week weather wise. The good news is the Holiday weekend might end up being ok, or at least for the first half.

I am on a train to new York so I can not upload pictures, but will do my best to break it down.

Showers move into the region today as a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Expect periods of light to maybe moderate rain all day. Not a washout but not pleasant.

Tomorrow it is more of the same as a low pressure center tries to ride up the boundary. Expect some light rain to develop as the afternoon approaches.

By Wednesday things are clear with temperatures in the 70s.

The break doesn't last long however as more showers enter region on Thursday into Friday morning. This will be due to another frontal boundary moving through the area.

As we enter the Holiday weekend, things should be fine for Saturday and Sunday although clouds should start to build by Sunday afternoon as the next disturbance moves into the area. At this time Saturday looks to be nicest day of the weekend. Sunday will be a wildcard and Monday does not look ideal. 

Why so unsettled? It's all due to overall weather pattern at 18k feet. We have a lot of blocking high pressure to the north over eastern Canada and the Eastern Pacific. This is causing the jet stream to buckle underneigth which causes all the energy and unsettled weather to come along with it. 

I will have a weekend update out by Thursday morning.

That's all for now.

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

Tuesday Weather Update: Summer Like Weather Finally Arrives

Good morning. After a washout of a weekend we have the best weather of the season on tap today through the weekend.

A ridge of high pressure will develop over the area which means warm and humid conditions develop especially by Thursday...

Today will actually be the nicest weather overall if you do not like real hot weather with temperatures in the high 70s.

By Wednesday and Thursday the humidity moves in with temperatures in the upper 80's to low 90s. The heat then breaks by the weekend with temperatures moving back into the lower 80's Friday then low 70's Saturday as a cold front moves through.

We will also see some severe weather out in the plains today and tomorrow as that big upper level trough seen in image above moves through...

Believe it or not, the high peaks of the Rockies will also see snow with this system..

Thats all for now, more this weekend.

Friday, May 12, 2017

Friday Weekend Update: A Washout

Sorry for the bad news, but things are not looking good for the weekend.  A low pressure system approaches the area early tomorrow morning and brings with it a steady rain and temperatures in the low 50's...

This rain will continue throughout the day varying in intensity. By Sunday morning the storm is still hitting New England...

Things will try to clear from south to north Sunday afternoon. Clouds may start to break up causing sun to poke through at times, mainly south of New England...

When it is all said and done expect 1 to locally 2 inches of rain across the region...

The good news is things clear and warm up by next week. In fact by the middle to end of next week we might finally see those warm temperatures everyone has been so desperate for as the pattern finally flips...

More to come on this. 

Monday, May 8, 2017

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: A Winter Pattern in May

Good morning. So it has gotten quite interesting weather wise over the last several days. Many of you may be thinking what is up with this chilly May weather? If fact, as you wake up this morning it is in the high 30's to low 40's in many areas and highs will not break the 50's for most folks today.

This chilly pattern will continue all week and some mountain areas up in New England may even see some snowfall! So what is going on?

Well, we actually do have a winter pattern in May. Below you can see the upper air pattern...

Notice the red area over Greenland. That is called a -NAO pattern. It traps the jet stream underneath it and what happens is colder air is forced to pool up under it. In winter, a pattern like this would be producing rounds of cold and snowy weather. Since it is May, we are just left with colder than normal temperatures and unsettled weather.

Today, temperatures will be below freezing at 5000ft.....

We have a strong May sun, so the surface still warms up to the 50's but still that is very chilly for this time of year. 

Up in the mountains you can see snow showers developing in spots...

So when will this pattern break? We should start to see some relief by mid month, but I have a feeling its more around Memorial Day where any true summer like weather takes hold. 

Thats all for now. 

Monday, May 1, 2017

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: Warm today, Cooler Temps to Follow

Good morning, it ended up being a nice weekend overall. As we head into this week things will start off warm today with temperatures in the high 70's to low 80s. It will be mostly cloudy as a cold front will be approaching later tonight bringing with it showers and thunderstorms...

This will all clear out by Tuesday morning but things will be on the cooler side through the rest of the week as this air mass is quite chilly for this time of year. Expect highs on Tuesday to be in the low to mid 70's but temperatures will then move down to the low 60's for highs for the rest of the week.

You can see the cold airmass below...

We then run into more turbulence from Thursday night into Friday as a storm system will move into the area and can pack quite the punch with rain...

Friday looks to be a miserable day with periods of rain. This should try to clear out by Saturday however and spare the weekend with mostly clear skies and temperatures in the 60's. We will have to watch this closely as there is a chance it can linger into Saturday.

I will have a write up later this week breaking it down.

Friday, April 28, 2017

Weekend Update: Better Than Last

Good morning. The weekend has finally arrived so what will the weather bring? 

We will start off today with cloudy skies but then the sun will start to break through as we get into the afternoon....

It will be a warmer day with highs in the upper 70's.

Saturday looks to be a decent day, although it should be mostly cloudy as a weak cold backdoor front flirts with moving into the area. A stray shower is not out of the question as this moves in. Conditions will stay warm (70's) then temperatures should drop as we head into Sunday morning. Highs on Sunday will be in the 60's with party cloudy skies.

Thats really all there is to talk about. As we enter may Thunderstorm season should start cranking up so we may (ha no pun intended) have some excitement to track. 

Monday, April 24, 2017

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: Rough Start, Smooth Finish

Good morning. Well the weekend turned out the opposite as expected. Sunday was the nice day and Saturday was quite dreary. The models did not handle disturbances along the frontal boundaries well at all.

This week starts rocky then really brings in some late spring like warmer weather.

A low pressure system will track up and along the coast tomorrow and part of Wednesday...

This will cause peroids of rain for Tuesday into midday Wednesday. Today will also be mostly cloudy as this system approaches.

Things then clear out nicely for Thursday and Friday with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in high 70s...

I will take a closer look at the weekend later this week, but right now things are looking good.

Friday, April 21, 2017

Friday Weekend Update: Ok is The Word

Good morning. The weekend has finally arrived so the natural question is what will the weather bring? We just had some rain move though the area last night and today will feature clearing with partly cloudy skies. Highs will not get much past the low 60's.

A cold front then sags south across the area tonight..

 This will keep things on the cooler side tomorrow as well with temperatures in the low 60's for highs. I do expect sun to break though tomorrow however.

By Sunday a wave of low pressure rides along the frontal boundary...

This means cloudy skies with showers to the south as seen above.

Overall the best day is Saturday. Sunday will be a hit or miss for many areas.

Enjoy the weekend. 

Monday, April 17, 2017

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: Back to Seasonable

Good morning. Well it could not be a nicer Easter weekend than we just had. Temperatures in the 80's yesterday made things feel more like mid June rather than mid April. Temperatures today will also stay more on the warm side with highs in low 70s, but a cold front drops temps for the core of the week.

By tonight you can see the colder air moving in...

This means a cool down for Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures in the high 50's to low 60's for many spots.

Mostly cloudy skies should be expected Wednesday into Thursday as frontal boundaries bring unsettled weather. By Thursday, showers should move into the area as a low pressure system passes to our north as seen below..

I think the sun then starts to come out again as the day gets underway Friday which should pave the way for a nice seasonable weekend. At this time Saturday and Sunday look to feature mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the low 60's. 

Thats all for now, I will update again as the weekend gets closer. 

Friday, April 14, 2017

Easter Weekend Update: Nice Weather Stays Put

Not much to talk about these days weather wise which means excellent conditions prevail. 

Today is a beautiful day with temperatures in the mid 60's. High pressure will be in control which will make for sunny skies.

A warm front then moves into the region tomorrow afternoon. This can cause a few showers to form mainly more to the north as seen below..

Overall nothing to ruin the weekend. The better news is this warm front spikes the temperatures for Easter Sunday. Expect highs in the low 80s for many spots!

Thats all for now, enjoy the weekend!

Monday, April 10, 2017

Monday Morning Weekly Weather Summary: Smooth Sailing

Good morning. Well, there is not much to say for this week other than spring will be in full swing! Temperatures today through Wednesday will range from the high 70's today to low 80's tomorrow.  Things will then moderate a little Wednesday through Friday with temperatures dropping into the 60's for highs. Regardless, it will be a gorgeous week with plenty of sunshine. 

The holiday weekend also looks to be in the clear. Mostly clear skies with temperatures in the mid to high 60's. Can't rule out a stray shower but at this time I wouldn't worry about it.

This is all due to high pressure being in control all week. Notice the placement of the high pressure off shore bringing with it warms winds from the south...

This also will help shield out any rain that tries to move towards the area. A cold front does move in Wednesday, which brings temps down for 2nd half of week but models indicate it will not cause much in the way of rain...

So I think you get the point. We have the nicest week of the year on tap. Enjoy it!

Thursday, April 6, 2017

Thursday Update: Here Comes the Rain

Good morning. It will be a soaker today as rounds of showers and storms move through the area...

This will mostly clear out by later tonight but cloudy and unstable conditions will prevail through Friday...

Notice the snow near the Great Lakes and Mountains of NY. This is due to a big cold pool of cold air aloft thanks to an impressive upper level low pressure system..

Things are clear for the weekend but on the chilly side. Highs on Sat will only be in low to mid 50's with warmer air returning for Sunday and especially Monday were we can hit 70!

Enjoy the weekend. 

Monday, April 3, 2017

Monday Morning Weekly Weather Summary: Rounds of Rain

Good morning. As we all can see early spring is in full swing and that means a lot of up and down weather. This weekend was a good example of that where we saw heavy rain for most areas but a mountain snowstorm up in New England. Most ski areas got between 10-12 inches, not bad for early April.

Moving on to this week, it will be more ups and downs. 

Today will be nice with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the high 50's to low 60's.

Rain moves in late tonight however...

A low pressure center will pass to our west tomorrow bringing with it rain that is heavy at times. Tuesday is a total washout.

Things will then clear for Wednesday with sunny skies and temperatures in the low 60's. 

This does not last long however as more rain moves into the region Thursday. The Thursday could be quite impressive dropping another 1-2 inches of rain...

We have a low pressure system that will close off in the upper atmosphere. This means the storm is slow moving and the rain lingers keeping things cloudy with showers for Friday. You can see below the closed circulation at 18000 feet in the atmosphere with this system..

You can see even by Friday it is still lingering with showers...

This should clear out by the weekend allowing the skies to break up. Temperatures will be on the chilly side however. I expect this weekend to feature temperatures in the low to mid 50's due to this big low pressure system bringing in winds from the northwest on its departure.  You can see below temperatures at 5000 ft will be below freezing this weekend over the region...

Since we now have a strong spring sun it is much warmer at the surface. Like I said, temperatures will hit the low to mid 50's with cold mornings. 

Thats all for now, we will keep an eye on these storm systems as the week goes on.