Friday, April 28, 2017

Weekend Update: Better Than Last

Good morning. The weekend has finally arrived so what will the weather bring? 

We will start off today with cloudy skies but then the sun will start to break through as we get into the afternoon....


It will be a warmer day with highs in the upper 70's.

Saturday looks to be a decent day, although it should be mostly cloudy as a weak cold backdoor front flirts with moving into the area. A stray shower is not out of the question as this moves in. Conditions will stay warm (70's) then temperatures should drop as we head into Sunday morning. Highs on Sunday will be in the 60's with party cloudy skies.

Thats really all there is to talk about. As we enter may Thunderstorm season should start cranking up so we may (ha no pun intended) have some excitement to track. 

Monday, April 24, 2017

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: Rough Start, Smooth Finish

Good morning. Well the weekend turned out the opposite as expected. Sunday was the nice day and Saturday was quite dreary. The models did not handle disturbances along the frontal boundaries well at all.

This week starts rocky then really brings in some late spring like warmer weather.

A low pressure system will track up and along the coast tomorrow and part of Wednesday...


This will cause peroids of rain for Tuesday into midday Wednesday. Today will also be mostly cloudy as this system approaches.

Things then clear out nicely for Thursday and Friday with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in high 70s...

I will take a closer look at the weekend later this week, but right now things are looking good.


Friday, April 21, 2017

Friday Weekend Update: Ok is The Word

Good morning. The weekend has finally arrived so the natural question is what will the weather bring? We just had some rain move though the area last night and today will feature clearing with partly cloudy skies. Highs will not get much past the low 60's.

A cold front then sags south across the area tonight..

 This will keep things on the cooler side tomorrow as well with temperatures in the low 60's for highs. I do expect sun to break though tomorrow however.

By Sunday a wave of low pressure rides along the frontal boundary...


This means cloudy skies with showers to the south as seen above.

Overall the best day is Saturday. Sunday will be a hit or miss for many areas.

Enjoy the weekend. 

Monday, April 17, 2017

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: Back to Seasonable

Good morning. Well it could not be a nicer Easter weekend than we just had. Temperatures in the 80's yesterday made things feel more like mid June rather than mid April. Temperatures today will also stay more on the warm side with highs in low 70s, but a cold front drops temps for the core of the week.

By tonight you can see the colder air moving in...



This means a cool down for Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures in the high 50's to low 60's for many spots.

Mostly cloudy skies should be expected Wednesday into Thursday as frontal boundaries bring unsettled weather. By Thursday, showers should move into the area as a low pressure system passes to our north as seen below..



I think the sun then starts to come out again as the day gets underway Friday which should pave the way for a nice seasonable weekend. At this time Saturday and Sunday look to feature mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the low 60's. 

Thats all for now, I will update again as the weekend gets closer. 

Friday, April 14, 2017

Easter Weekend Update: Nice Weather Stays Put

Not much to talk about these days weather wise which means excellent conditions prevail. 

Today is a beautiful day with temperatures in the mid 60's. High pressure will be in control which will make for sunny skies.

A warm front then moves into the region tomorrow afternoon. This can cause a few showers to form mainly more to the north as seen below..


Overall nothing to ruin the weekend. The better news is this warm front spikes the temperatures for Easter Sunday. Expect highs in the low 80s for many spots!


Thats all for now, enjoy the weekend!

Monday, April 10, 2017

Monday Morning Weekly Weather Summary: Smooth Sailing

Good morning. Well, there is not much to say for this week other than spring will be in full swing! Temperatures today through Wednesday will range from the high 70's today to low 80's tomorrow.  Things will then moderate a little Wednesday through Friday with temperatures dropping into the 60's for highs. Regardless, it will be a gorgeous week with plenty of sunshine. 

The holiday weekend also looks to be in the clear. Mostly clear skies with temperatures in the mid to high 60's. Can't rule out a stray shower but at this time I wouldn't worry about it.

This is all due to high pressure being in control all week. Notice the placement of the high pressure off shore bringing with it warms winds from the south...


This also will help shield out any rain that tries to move towards the area. A cold front does move in Wednesday, which brings temps down for 2nd half of week but models indicate it will not cause much in the way of rain...


So I think you get the point. We have the nicest week of the year on tap. Enjoy it!

Thursday, April 6, 2017

Thursday Update: Here Comes the Rain

Good morning. It will be a soaker today as rounds of showers and storms move through the area...



This will mostly clear out by later tonight but cloudy and unstable conditions will prevail through Friday...

Notice the snow near the Great Lakes and Mountains of NY. This is due to a big cold pool of cold air aloft thanks to an impressive upper level low pressure system..


Things are clear for the weekend but on the chilly side. Highs on Sat will only be in low to mid 50's with warmer air returning for Sunday and especially Monday were we can hit 70!

Enjoy the weekend. 

Monday, April 3, 2017

Monday Morning Weekly Weather Summary: Rounds of Rain

Good morning. As we all can see early spring is in full swing and that means a lot of up and down weather. This weekend was a good example of that where we saw heavy rain for most areas but a mountain snowstorm up in New England. Most ski areas got between 10-12 inches, not bad for early April.

Moving on to this week, it will be more ups and downs. 

Today will be nice with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the high 50's to low 60's.

Rain moves in late tonight however...

A low pressure center will pass to our west tomorrow bringing with it rain that is heavy at times. Tuesday is a total washout.

Things will then clear for Wednesday with sunny skies and temperatures in the low 60's. 

This does not last long however as more rain moves into the region Thursday. The Thursday could be quite impressive dropping another 1-2 inches of rain...


We have a low pressure system that will close off in the upper atmosphere. This means the storm is slow moving and the rain lingers keeping things cloudy with showers for Friday. You can see below the closed circulation at 18000 feet in the atmosphere with this system..


You can see even by Friday it is still lingering with showers...

This should clear out by the weekend allowing the skies to break up. Temperatures will be on the chilly side however. I expect this weekend to feature temperatures in the low to mid 50's due to this big low pressure system bringing in winds from the northwest on its departure.  You can see below temperatures at 5000 ft will be below freezing this weekend over the region...

Since we now have a strong spring sun it is much warmer at the surface. Like I said, temperatures will hit the low to mid 50's with cold mornings. 

Thats all for now, we will keep an eye on these storm systems as the week goes on. 

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

Wednesday: Late Season Mountain Snowstorm on Tap

Good morning. Skiers be on alert, it looks  likely that the mountains of New England can see a decent snowfall Friday into Saturday. 

A low pressure center will move in from the west Friday and slide east under an area of high pressure. This high pressure should supply just enough cold air aloft to support snow in elevations above 2000 ft....

Model snow printouts look like this...

I am skeptical of the snow down in CT. I think a general area of decent snow falls from the Adirondacks to the Green to the White mountains with this system. Further to the south it will be a mixed bag just just plain rain as you get near the tri-state. 

More to come on this. 

Monday, March 27, 2017

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: Seasonal Week With Severe Weather in Plains

Good morning. Its pretty remarkable how there can be so much transition in one month, but thats what March is all about. We went from an all out winter to an all out spring pattern in a matter of weeks. Sure we could still see the occasional spring snow up in New England but overall thats a wrap.


This week will feature temperatures in the mid 50's with rain today tomorrow and Friday.

The current weather system should clear out area by this afternoon leaving overcast conditions...

Notice the snow over mid to northern Maine. 

Tomorrow, more rain approaches by the mid morning as a low pressure system passes to our west...


Things then clear out for Wednesday and Thursday with sunny skies and highs in the 50's.

The big weather story this week however will be the severe weather in the southern plains. Very warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico will collide with cooler air approaching from the west due to an upper level trough. This should cause some super cell thunderstorms and potentially tornadoes Wednesday afternoon. You can see model projections below showing the storm popping up especially in TX..


We will keep a close eye on this over the next 24 hrs. 

That is all for now. Thanks for reading. 




Monday, March 20, 2017

Monday: One More Shot of Winter Air This Week

Welcome to the 1st day of Spring! The season is under transition and we will see a lot of back and forth this week to that point. Things will start off more on the seasonable side today and Tuesday with temperatures in the upper 40's to low 50's  with mostly sunny skies.

Winter then gives us another jab however as an arctic air mass arrives Wednesday...



This arctic shot will only bring temperatures into the mid to upper 30's for highs Wednesday and Thursday with lows in the teens. It will feel more like mid-February again not late March.

Warm air however returns on Friday and Saturday with temperatures building back into the 60's by Saturday!

Things then get interesting Saturday night into Sunday as rain moves into the area with potential snow to the north...


I am watching this very closely especially for ski areas. This can be one of the last hurrah's for them. The reason the models are showing snow to the north with this system is due to a high pressure system building in on top of the low pressure from the north. Situations like this usually do produce some snow for New England, especially the ski areas. Further to the south it is highly unlikely anyone sees the frozen stuff.

Thats all for now, thanks for reading. 




Saturday, March 18, 2017

Major Shifts Last Night: Limited Impacts

*Note- I accidentally deleted last night's post. Any comments I can not see or respond to from that time.*


Good morning. Well, that was interesting. Every major model has backed off on anything impactful for today. Just some light snow for spots. We knew how tricky this system was to begin with, but I will say I am suprised with the degree things shifted. Talk about curve balls.

At this time looks like up to an inch maybe locally twi can fall in higher elevations of pa into NNJ. From there, the only consistency I can find is extreme eastern Mass/the Cape seeing accumulating snow. This will have to be watched in real time. 

Systems like this will always be hard to predict. Their features are small scale in nature which means a pin prick of a change in whats modeld has drastic changes in fhe forecast. Who knows maybe there will be a few suprises later today.

Friday, March 17, 2017

Friday Morning: A Closer Look at Tomorrow's Snow Threat

Summary:


  • Light snow moves in tomorrow morning
    • It will be rain to start for areas around I-78 south
  • A heavier band of snow develops Sat afternoon-Night
    • The exact placement of this is very difficult to nail down due to nature of storm system
  • The higher totals on my map are at elevations over 700ft 

Good morning. I have tweaked my map from yesterday regarding tomorrow's snow event. It is extremely difficult to nail down the accumulations with this one due to the fact they will be associated with something called an inverted trough. In simple terms an inverted trough means there will be a narrorw band of heavier snowfall in a localized area. It is almost impossible to the models to nail down the exact location in situations like this.

In any event here is my map. Again, the top range of the totals are for high elevations above 700ft. It is important to remember that. This is a light event for most. 



Light snow moves into the area tomorrow morning. For areas more south of my zones the initial precipitation can be rain. Notice I have marked that the higher end of totals are at higher elevations. That is an important point for this event as temperatures will be marginally cold for snow Saturday. 

Heavier snow should develop on Saturday afternoon into the night as a coastal low takes over. This is where that inverted trough is supposed to develop to produce the heaviest band. At this time it looks like NNJ into Southeastern New England has the best chance of getting in on that band. There will be localized heavy amounts (5"+) depending on who is in the best spot.

Looking at the models, light snow moves in tomorrow morning as a warm front associated with the approaching low moves moisture into the area...


Notice the rain and snow in NJ to my point above. This initial batch should not cause much in terms of accumulations except for higher elevations. 

A costal low then takes over on Saturday night...



This is where the heavier snowfall should develop in my highlighted zones. You can see the next frame of this progression below...


Notice how this model doesn't have much snow up in SE New England. Other models do however...



Again, that heavier band of snow you see above (darker blue) is caused by the inverted trough. You an see an inverted trough on an upper air map by a kink in the height lines...



Where ever this sets up gets the most snow. I can guarantee you one thing with this system, some will be disappointed.

More later. 

Thursday, March 16, 2017

No Post Tonight, Tomorrow AM Update

No changes to thoughts from this morning. Will evaluate updates to the Saturday into possibly Sunday morning snow threat for my highlighted area in the morning. 

Thursday Morning: More Snow on Tap Saturday

Thats right, that pesky little disturbance I mentioned yesterday looks like it want to produce on Saturday. 

The disturbance moves into our region early Saturday morning from the north...

This should cause snow to fall from I-78 north into New England. As this disturbances intensifies, low pressure looks to develop off the coast Saturday afternoon...


This is the tricky part, the exact placement of the heavy band of precip/snow is going to be tough to nail. We have evidence of something called an inverted trough that can develop. These are known for producing a narrow band of heavy snowfall. The model above shows it developing of NNJ into SE NE later on Saturday afternoon. However, other models vary with its placement.

My first estimate of what this system can produce is below....


I will update this map tomorrow morning as necessary.  It may be March, but the weather pattern we are in is more like early February. The weather will always surprise you. 

More later tonight, be sure to check in. 

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Wednesday Morning: The Aftermath

Good morning. Our storm is now over, and we can evaluate what happened and why. It is no secret that the snowfall amounts did not live up to expectations around the I-95 but lets take a look at final outcome...

Vs my final forecast...



VS my initial impact map made Friday...



You can see my error was not to bring the 4-8 (light blue zone) further north. In reality it should have be touching the red zone. The red zone overall actually made out well. I reported 16" at  my location  in NW NJ and areas further north and west did see up to a 2 feet and locally more.  We discussed the risk in my video discussions of the I-95 but I was surprised how quickly that warm air moved in yesterday morning.

The crazy thing is (not to make excuses) every major model had all snow for I-95 except for the NAM. Hard to just ride one model into the sunset when making a forecast. However, the one red flag was the temperature profile of the upper atmosphere. Even tho most models had all snow, the margin was so thin that any slight adjustment would bring just enough warm air into the mix to cause sleet.  Thats exactly what happened. Our storm center formed about 30 miles more west than expected and well the rest is history. Places near I-95 were literally right on the edge the whole time which is why snow and sleet kept interchanging.

So moving on, today is cold and blustery (will feel like Feb) with blowing snow and snow showers moving through later..


This is due to the upper level low associated with yesterdays storm moving through...



The colder than normal air will be around at least the next 5 day. This weekend we have to watch the shot for some light to maybe moderate snow as a storm system dives down from the NW. If this system redevelops on the coast we could have an issue but thats not my forecast at this time. New England would be the focus anyway.

Thanks for all the interactions yesterday.

Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Storm Winding Down, Snow Showers Linger Tonight

130pm Update:

Snow is ending across the state of NJ into the NY metro. We will have snow showers throughout the night however as some left over banding moves across the area from PA...



To the north over New England, snow continues through tonight. There will be a changeover near Boston and southern CT and RI. To the inland I expect heavy snow to continue. The highest totals will be in interior New England. Some areas will see over two feet. 

It was a disappointment for any areas south and near I-95. The storm lived up to its power (high winds, intense precipitation) but the warm air moved in more than expected. Areas to the north and west saw at least 10-14 inches so far. Much more has fell out in NY State and NE PA. I will evaluate everything tonight in a final post. For any of you that may have some choice words on your lack of snowfall, the comments section is up and running below.

Stay tuned.

830am Live Update: All Out Blizzard in North Jersey

We are now entering the height of the storm!



6am Update: Storm Intensifying Rapidly, Snow/Ice/Rain Line Drama

Good morning. Our storm system is intensifying rapidly and will continue to do so as the morning wears on. Warm air aloft has worked its way into areas along I-95 and even a little west of I-95 quicker than expected. This means some of you are waking up to sleet. To the far south over Balt/Wash, Phili and SNJ the snow is over and you will mostly be ice/rain from here on out. This is not a surprise. Along I-95 including up to RT. 78 into NYC a battle is setting up between ice and snow. I expect there to be a lot of back and forth this morning between the both. Although it can cut down on accumulations, the intense precipitation coupled with the high winds will make this storm just as dangerous and powerful. The same holds true for areas of southern CT, RI and eastern Mass. Warm air should work its way into those areas by later this morning. For the interior, the Blizzard will bear down hard through this afternoon. I will emphasize that the storm has not weakened or developed less powerful than expected. This is just a matter of adjusting the ice/snow line.

My quick video below breaks down these updates along with the snowfall map. I will be back later this morning around 10 am with footage from the height of the storm...



Monday, March 13, 2017

The Blizzard of 2017 Evening Update: Time to Hunker Down

My latest video below gives you a play by play of what to expect for tonight into tomorrow's historical blizzard. I discuss timing of snowfall, what areas may change to sleet and rain, along with more detail on snow totals. This storm will be one for the history books. I will have frequent updates throughout the storm on the blog along with @weatherwilly on twitter. Look forward to keeping everyone updated. Of course there will be live footage. 



Monday: The Blizzard of 2017 Will Be Historical

*HISTORICAL MARCH SNOWSTORM TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY*


SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOME HEAVY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. AS STORM CENTER INTENSIFIES OFF DELAWARE COAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SNOWFALL RATES WILL PICK UP RAPIDLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT 1-3" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN HARDEST HIT AREAS. WINDS NEAR COAST WILL BE GUSTING OVER 50 MPH WITH OVER 40MPH GUSTS INLAND. THIS SHOULD MAKE TRAVEL NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TUESDAY. FOR COASTAL AREAS AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF I-95, SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO A MIX AND EVEN RAIN TO THE FAR SOUTH TUESDAY. ALL OTHER AREAS WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE HARDEST HIT AREAS SHOULD SEE OVER A FOOT AND POSSIBLY UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW.

Play by play video tonight at 7pm

Here is my Final Forecast....




Latest model guidance has only trended more impressive with this storm system over the last 24 hours. Every major model is now indicating an intense low pressure system with remarkable snowfall rates. The height of this storm will be tomorrow morning into the afternoon. At this time whiteout conditions should spread through  most of the area. Here is latest GFS model below which has finally caught up to other model guidance...

8am...



2pm...


8pm..



You can see how intense the low pressure center is and the remarkable snowfall rates as seen by the dark blue.

Winds will be intense as well by Tuesday morning...



At 18000ft this is a work of art....


We have energy from 3 jet streams basically consolidating in the east. The trend in this data point alone gives me confidence that this threat is for real.

I will have a play by play video breakdown live at 7pm tonight. Live coverage also on tap all day tomorrow.

Sunday, March 12, 2017

6pm Update: The Blizzard of 2017

Historic March blizzard is on track. Latest model guidance has trended even more aggressive with the intensity of the storm. This latest video provides my most updated perspective. My final snow forecast is out tomorrow morning. Stay tuned, this should be one for the books!




Sunday Morning: Crippling Blizzard to Slam Region Tuesday

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW ARRIVES LATE MONDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND QUICKLY BUILDS IN INTENSITY BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD HIT 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR IN SPOTS. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORM OF THE SEASON AND POSSIBLY THE LARGEST MARCH STORM IN OVER 20 YEARS. MAJOR CITIES FROM BALTIMORE TO BOSTON WILL BE LARGELY IMPACTED WITH HEAVY SNOW, HIGH WINDS AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES,ESPECIALLY NYC AND BOSTON. WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE, 1-2 FEET OF SNOW WILL FALL REGION WIDE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FOR DELMARVA, BALT/WASH AND SOUTH JERSEY. 

Next update on this situation will be at 6pm. We need to keep a close on how close to the coast this gets as borderline areas can be effected snow total wise. 


I have updated my map from yesterday morning with a few tweaks. I brought heaviest snow a little further south based on latest trends. In the purple zone a general 1-2 feet can be expected. I am keeping the 12-18 for now until the final forecast comes out tomorrow morning. I still am concerned that this does inch more into the coast which will keep totals down to the south especially over Balt/Wash and Southern NJ due to mixing. 




The European, Canadian, NAM, and GFS models are all flashing major signals over last 12 hours.

Below you can see the most latest European frames from Tuesday morning, afternoon and evening (click to make bigger)..




This along with the Canadian model are most aggressive with this storm system. What you see above is a major deal as the storm center passes just off the coast of NJ then NE towards Cape Cod. 

You can see the wind gusts in Kts projected for Tuesday afternoon into evening. This will result in blizzard conditions for areas near the coast..



The GFS model has been a little chaotic last 2 runs and has the storm exiting more quickly to the southeast...


This would mean heavy snow does not make it as far inland. Its snow printout map looks weird to me with a snow hole for part of the interior...

Its ensembles show a similar thing. It may very well end up being correct, but from the analysis I did of the model this projection seems off. 

Stay tuned for tonights video update!