Monday, July 24, 2017

Monday Morning Weekly Weather Summary: Clearing and Calm Till Friday

Good morning. Our area is currently under the influence of a frontal boundary this morning which means more impulses of rain moving through the area...

By this afternoon this frontal boundary should drape to our south which will allow the wet weather to end and usher in dryer and more pleasant air for Tuesday through Thursday.

You can see below the cooler air (green) that moves in Tuesday with a northwest wind. This will keep the humidity values down some as we enter the core of the week..

Expect temperatures Tuesday through Thursday to be in the low 80s with mostly sunny skies.

On Thursday night, a cold front approaches from the northwest bringing with it showers and some possible storms...

Models are then indicating we can see a wave or two of low pressure develop along this front Friday which could be a chance at more consistent rain...

Regardless, it looks like this will clear out by the weekend paving the way for decent weather. If this front stalls then that forecast will have to be changed. Will update later this week. 

Enjoy the week!

Monday, July 17, 2017

Monday Morning: On Vacation This Week

Sailing to Bermuda currently, although a healthy moisture feed in the Atlantic is keeping the sun at bay.

Will resume posting next week. Also, the blog will start discussing Winter 2018 as Aug approaches. No outlooks till October but I will start to post on some factors I am looking at.

Stay tuned!

Monday, July 10, 2017

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: Hot Muggy Conditions Take Hold This Week

Good morning. This week will feature a good dose of hot and humid summer weather especially as we get into the heart of the week. As usual, this will bring with it the chances of thunderstorms as boundaries of air and upper level disturbances cause this hot muggy air to lift at times.

Today will be the nicest with temperatures in the mid 80's and tame humidity. As we enter Tuesday this changes as the winds shift and come in from the south bringing the humidity with them.

A frontal passage will produce thunderstorms some of which may be severe as we enter Tuesday afternoon...

All areas will have the shot at the storms, but the most likely area for severe weather will be a little more towards the north.

Wednesday should be mostly dry with maybe a few isolated pop up storms. Temperatures will stay warm in the upper 80's.

Even muggier air arrives on Thursday with temperatures in the low 90's with high humidity values. We will also have the chance at more strong to severe storms as an upper level disturbance will again increase the chances for the warm humid air to rise and form storms. 

We will have to watch how the weather evolves as we enter Friday. Models are hinting that a wave of low pressure may form along a frontal boundary which could cause more rounds of showers into Friday morning....

The frontal boundary will however lower temperatures into the low to mid 80's Friday giving the regions a break in the heat. 

The weekend then looks to be fairly tame with mostly sunny conditions lower humidity and temperatures in the mid 80s.

I will update as we get closer to the weekend along with comment on any severe weather we see tomorrow or Thursday. 

Thursday, July 6, 2017

Thursday Weekend Update: Wet Today, Clearing by Weekend

Good morning. As we wake up today, a low pressure center is moving towards our area along a stalled frontal boundary...

This will keep things cloudy today with a few rounds of showers especially to the south.

Showers run into tomorrow morning as the low finally departs to our northeast...

Sun will come out tomorrow once this system leaves the area.

As we head into Saturday we will have a nice day with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 80's.

A cold front then approaches Saturday night. Showers should develop ahead of this front but as of now it looks like they are confined to areas in New England as seen below...

I am not ruling out showers for areas closer to the coast Saturday as any disturbance ahead of this front can cause a few pop ups.

The cooler air from the front arrives Saturday night with lows in the mid to high 50's for many spots...

This will lead to a beautiful day Sunday with temperatures in the upper 70's for most spots and sunny skies. 


Friday, June 30, 2017

Friday Holiday Weekend Outlook

Good morning. As we head into a nice long holiday weekend, more humid summer air is back on tap. Today will feature temperatures in the low 90s with humid conditions. This warm moist air combined with some upper level energy moving in over the area will fire up some showers and storms later this afternoon...

The main focus will be to the north of Delmarva as that is where the most upper level energy will be present....

As we get to Saturday things will stay hot and humid with temperatures in the upper 80's to lower 90's in spots. There will be another shot at showers and Thunderstorms later Saturday afternoon as a weak cold front moves through the area.

In the wake of this cold front the humidity will ease on Sunday but temperatures will still be in the mid 80's with Sunshine. Some isolated showers but overall Sunday looks dry.

You can see below the drier air work in Sunday as winds shift more from the west northwest ...

Monday and Tuesday also look to be beautiful days with lower humidity and temperatures in the mid 80's.

Bottom line: a typical summer weekend on tap with hot (and humid) conditions and some storms. The heat eases some as we head into early next week. 

Enjoy the weekend!

Monday, June 26, 2017

Monday Morning Weather Summary: Beautiful Week Ahead

Good morning! The humid air of late last week has cleared out and we are entering a stretch of gorgeous weather over the next few days. Mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the 70's to lower 80's will be the theme all week. 

All this is due to an upper level trough or dip in the jet stream over our area seen in blue...

This keeps winds coming from the west northwest hence the cooler drier air we will be experiencing.

There will be a few frontal boundaries moving through the area can cause a few stray showers as the week moves on but I do not expect much until at least the end of this week where a larger low pressure system up in Canada can cause enough forcing to cause some showers to pop up over the region Thursday into Friday...

A warm front then looks like it wants to move through this weekend which will cause temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 80's with unsettled weather. I will keep an eye on this as the week progresses.

Looking at the long range...

Taking a quick look at the long range I do not see any data supporting sustainable heat over the east at this time. We will have our warm shots but the pattern overall looks to keep things more mild and active as we head towards July. This means temperatures mostly in the 80's which I do not think anyone will be complaining about.

More at the end of this week. 

Friday, June 23, 2017

Friday Weather Update: Muggy Tropical Day on Tap

Good morning everyone. Today will feature very humid unsettled conditions as a bunch of weather systems move through the area. We have a lot of energy in the upper atmosphere moving through thanks to former Tropical Storm Cindy and an approaching upper level trough. The image below shows all of this energy heading towards the area..

This energy brings with it very humid air. The image below shows the water content in the air...

This will make things feel very muggy today and provide good fuel for heavy showers and storms to develop today into tomorrow morning. 

You can see as we get towards the afternoon, the unsettled weather moves in...

This will continue all day into early Saturday morning. By mid morning Saturday all this should have moved through. 

The humid air should start to ease later in the day on Saturday as a front moves in from the west. This will pave the way for a beautiful day on Sunday with temperatures in the upper 70's under mostly sunny skies. 

Monday, June 19, 2017

Monday Morning Weather Discussion: Strong to Severe Storms Tonight

Good morning. This warm muggy air mass currently over the region will set the stage for big thunderstorms to fire up later this afternoon into this evening as a cold front approaches from the west.

The Storm Prediction Center has our area under an enhanced watch...

Front approaches from the west and the storms should start to enter the NJ area around 4-6pm...

Some of these storms will feature strong straight line wind, heavy rain, thunder and lightning. The best chance for the biggest storms will be west of the city where the air mass is  most unstable.

You can see a metric that gauges instability (ability for air to rise) in the atmosphere will be elevated...

Also, we have a very saturated and humid air mass for the cold front to run into...

Once the front approaches all of this warm moist air will rise condense and form towering clouds causing the storms.

By around 8-10pm all these storms should be cleared out.

The rest of the week then is moderate with temperatures in the low to upper 80's with the chance at more storms later in the week.

I will be tracking this on twitter later today @weatherwily

Monday, June 12, 2017

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: Bring on the Heat

Good morning. Our warmer than normal air mass arrived yesterday and it will persist until Wednesday. You can see below the high pressure system to our southeast bringing in the warm air from the south...

Temperatures today will be in the low to mid 90's. There will humidity in the air but it will not be as bad as it could be due to some drier air mixing in from the upper levels of the atmosphere.  Regardless, very hot day today.

The same hold true for Tuesday. Temperatures will be in the low 90's with sunshine. 

Releif from the heat comes on Wednesday as a backdoor cold front moves in from Canada...

This will break the heat as it approaches and high temperatuers will fall into the low 80's for Wednesday and into the 70's for Thursday and Friday.

On Friday however this frontal boundary drifts back north causing the chances for unsettled weather into the weekend.

Expect numerous showers to pop up Friday into the Weekend as impulses along this frontal boundary cause air to rise. You can see below the models trying to show this...

More of the same Saturday...

This doesn't mean all cloudy days with washouts. It means a mix of clouds and sun with a good chance of showers moving through. 

Highs will be in the upper 70's to low 80s for the end of the week.

Thats all for now I will keep my eye on the weekend in case anything changes. 

Friday, June 9, 2017

Friday Weekend Update: Summer Arrives

Good morning. We finally get a break for the choppy weather and begin our stretch of summer like weather this weekend. 

Today will feature mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 70's to low 80s.

As we get to Saturday, high pressure moves into control and result in a warm southwest flow of air into the region. This is where things start to heat up. Expect temperatures to reach the mid to upper 80's with Sunshine.

Sunday into early next week will be hot and humid. Expect temperatures in the low 90's for most spots. 

The heat arrives due to an upper level ridge of high pressure forming over the east...

This blocks out any large scale weather systems and allows us to move into a normal summer pattern of daytime heat and potential afternoon thunderstorms if conditions permit.

Looking at the longer range models it does appear this is a sustainable pattern change. This means welcome to summer!

Enjoy the weekend. 

Monday, June 5, 2017

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: More Unsettled Weather, Hot Next Week?

Good morning. As the story has been all spring, the pattern of cooler and unsettled weather will continue into this week. This  means multiple chances of showers with cloudy skies through most of this week. Temperatures will also be on the chilly side, especially tomorrow and Wednesday. Lets take a look...

A few rounds of showers will pass through southern areas today.....

As a cold front sags south tomrorow, more showers will fire up throughout the region from the morning into the afternoon...

By Tuesday late afternoon these showers should end and cooler conditions prevail into Wednesday as high pressure keeps the cold front to our south...

Wednesday will feature temperatures in the high 60's to lower 70's with mostly cloudy skies. Some sun will poke through. 

As we get into Thursday things will get a little warmer with temperatures in the 70's  with mostly cloudy skies. I do think some sun can break though Thursday but it is a tough call at this time.

By Friday, things warm up into the low 70's with mostly sunny skies. This should continue into the weekend although this is a high volatility pattern so we will have to watch closely. 

What is going on this spring?

Well as I mentioned in previous posts, the atmosphere is all clogged up along the east due to blocking of the jet stream. The image below shows this...

We have areas of high pressure to our west and to our north. This forces the jet stream south over the east coast (blue) causing cooler and unsettled conditions. This pattern has been very consistent over the past month. Will it break?

The good news is there are signs that this pattern can start to break down next week...

Notice in image above the models are hinting we can see the opposite with high pressure developing in the east which would allow warm air form the south to rise into the region. It is likely that next week will feel more like early summer. The question does remain however if this pattern will last or revert back to more of the same.

Time will tell. 

Tuesday, May 30, 2017

Tuesday: Taking a Look at The Week Ahead

Good morning. The holiday weekend ended up being ok. We saw rain yesterday but Saturday and Sunday turned out to be decent days. 

As we head into the rest of this week things will continue to be unsettled with more up and down weather.  Today will feature clouds with the chance of showers...

By tomorrow, the sun comes back out with temperature sitting in the mid 70's. This nice weather lasts into Thursday which will be a little cooler with temperatures in the low 70's due to a passing front Wednesday night.

Then the chop comes back as we head into the weekend. Friday will feature sun, but there is a chance at some showers and storm as we head into the afternoon as a front approaches...

For the weekend, a series of low pressure system will try to move through the region. This means the chances of unsettled weather are high. 

By the time we get to Saturday afternoon, the first low pressure wave moves through the north...

There may then be a break in the action until we get to later in the day on Sunday as a potential larger system is on its heals...

I still think we see sun on both days we just should have some showers to deal with as these impulses move through the region. 

So when does summer really arrive? Well, it still appears we have some time to go. The unsettled and cooler than normal pattern should continue into June. You can see the long range model projections below showing the cooler pocket over the east in the long range...

Eventually this pattern will break, but it has been remarkable how persistent it has been all spring. The heat will eventually come but until then expect more moderate temperatures with multiple chances at unsettled weather over the next 2 weeks. 

Friday, May 26, 2017

Memorial Day Weekend Update: Overall Not Bad

Good morning. As we all start the holiday weekend I thought I would give everyone a weather update.

Rain has moved out or the region and today for the most part isn't bad. Some afternoon showers are possible but nothing serious.

Tomorrow will be the nicest day with mostly Sunny skies and temperatures in the 70s.

Sunday starts off nice but clouds build as afternoon gets underway. Showers should enter the region by Sunday night and continue into Monday. Temperatures stay in the low 70s for this period.

So overall not too bad. Saturday is the day to be on the beach although it will be a little chilly. No outdoor activities should be impacted Sunday unless they run into the night and Monday just is not ideal.

Thanks for reading enjoy the weekend.

Monday, May 22, 2017

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: A Bumpy Ride

Good morning. Well I wish I had better news but it looks to be a very unsettled week weather wise. The good news is the Holiday weekend might end up being ok, or at least for the first half.

I am on a train to new York so I can not upload pictures, but will do my best to break it down.

Showers move into the region today as a frontal boundary sets up over the area. Expect periods of light to maybe moderate rain all day. Not a washout but not pleasant.

Tomorrow it is more of the same as a low pressure center tries to ride up the boundary. Expect some light rain to develop as the afternoon approaches.

By Wednesday things are clear with temperatures in the 70s.

The break doesn't last long however as more showers enter region on Thursday into Friday morning. This will be due to another frontal boundary moving through the area.

As we enter the Holiday weekend, things should be fine for Saturday and Sunday although clouds should start to build by Sunday afternoon as the next disturbance moves into the area. At this time Saturday looks to be nicest day of the weekend. Sunday will be a wildcard and Monday does not look ideal. 

Why so unsettled? It's all due to overall weather pattern at 18k feet. We have a lot of blocking high pressure to the north over eastern Canada and the Eastern Pacific. This is causing the jet stream to buckle underneigth which causes all the energy and unsettled weather to come along with it. 

I will have a weekend update out by Thursday morning.

That's all for now.

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

Tuesday Weather Update: Summer Like Weather Finally Arrives

Good morning. After a washout of a weekend we have the best weather of the season on tap today through the weekend.

A ridge of high pressure will develop over the area which means warm and humid conditions develop especially by Thursday...

Today will actually be the nicest weather overall if you do not like real hot weather with temperatures in the high 70s.

By Wednesday and Thursday the humidity moves in with temperatures in the upper 80's to low 90s. The heat then breaks by the weekend with temperatures moving back into the lower 80's Friday then low 70's Saturday as a cold front moves through.

We will also see some severe weather out in the plains today and tomorrow as that big upper level trough seen in image above moves through...

Believe it or not, the high peaks of the Rockies will also see snow with this system..

Thats all for now, more this weekend.

Friday, May 12, 2017

Friday Weekend Update: A Washout

Sorry for the bad news, but things are not looking good for the weekend.  A low pressure system approaches the area early tomorrow morning and brings with it a steady rain and temperatures in the low 50's...

This rain will continue throughout the day varying in intensity. By Sunday morning the storm is still hitting New England...

Things will try to clear from south to north Sunday afternoon. Clouds may start to break up causing sun to poke through at times, mainly south of New England...

When it is all said and done expect 1 to locally 2 inches of rain across the region...

The good news is things clear and warm up by next week. In fact by the middle to end of next week we might finally see those warm temperatures everyone has been so desperate for as the pattern finally flips...

More to come on this. 

Monday, May 8, 2017

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: A Winter Pattern in May

Good morning. So it has gotten quite interesting weather wise over the last several days. Many of you may be thinking what is up with this chilly May weather? If fact, as you wake up this morning it is in the high 30's to low 40's in many areas and highs will not break the 50's for most folks today.

This chilly pattern will continue all week and some mountain areas up in New England may even see some snowfall! So what is going on?

Well, we actually do have a winter pattern in May. Below you can see the upper air pattern...

Notice the red area over Greenland. That is called a -NAO pattern. It traps the jet stream underneath it and what happens is colder air is forced to pool up under it. In winter, a pattern like this would be producing rounds of cold and snowy weather. Since it is May, we are just left with colder than normal temperatures and unsettled weather.

Today, temperatures will be below freezing at 5000ft.....

We have a strong May sun, so the surface still warms up to the 50's but still that is very chilly for this time of year. 

Up in the mountains you can see snow showers developing in spots...

So when will this pattern break? We should start to see some relief by mid month, but I have a feeling its more around Memorial Day where any true summer like weather takes hold. 

Thats all for now. 

Monday, May 1, 2017

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: Warm today, Cooler Temps to Follow

Good morning, it ended up being a nice weekend overall. As we head into this week things will start off warm today with temperatures in the high 70's to low 80s. It will be mostly cloudy as a cold front will be approaching later tonight bringing with it showers and thunderstorms...

This will all clear out by Tuesday morning but things will be on the cooler side through the rest of the week as this air mass is quite chilly for this time of year. Expect highs on Tuesday to be in the low to mid 70's but temperatures will then move down to the low 60's for highs for the rest of the week.

You can see the cold airmass below...

We then run into more turbulence from Thursday night into Friday as a storm system will move into the area and can pack quite the punch with rain...

Friday looks to be a miserable day with periods of rain. This should try to clear out by Saturday however and spare the weekend with mostly clear skies and temperatures in the 60's. We will have to watch this closely as there is a chance it can linger into Saturday.

I will have a write up later this week breaking it down.