Friday, September 22, 2017

Friday Update: Maria Stays Offshore, Limited Impacts

**Winter Outlook 2018 Out Monday October 19th**

Good Morning. After making a devastating impact to Puerto Rico, Maria will spare any impacts to the US.

All model guidance now takes this offshore...

This is due to an approaching trough that will cause the flow to take it out to sea...


That trough should leave us with a great Fall chill by next weekend...


Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Wednesday: Maria Making Direct Impact With Puerto Rico



The image above says it all. Maria made landfall with Puerto Rico as a Cat 4 storm just before 7am this morning. I can only imagine some of the damage the eastern part of this island is seeing. Winds are looking to be sustained at 150+ mph based on air recon and satellite analysis.  The radar and wind instruments are all down on the island due to the severity of the storm.

This storm will move through Puerto Rico today and then turn north...


This hurricane then gets too close for comfort for the east coast next week...




I do think this storm stays offshore, but it will need to be watched extremely closely as this storm will stay quite powerful. 

Will have updates to come. 



Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Tuesday: Jose Barely Noticeable Today, Maria Now a Major Storm

Good morning. What was hurricane Jose is now just a leftover low pressure system that will stay offshore and have limited effects today. You can see based on the satellite below this is not an impressive system...


Now compare that to Maria which is a real problem right now as it barrels towards Puerto Rico as a cat 5 storm...


I haven't seen any images yet, but it ravaged the islands of Dominica last night with a direct blow and now has Puerto Rico in its cross hairs.

Here is the updated cone from the NHC...


This storm is expected to turn due north then the question is will it become an east coast threat. At this time I do not think so. It will be a close call but most major model guidance have it curving out to sea due to an approaching trough from it west...


Below shows the trough coming in and kicking it out...


Regardless, we will have to still keep an eye on this as it is way too close for comfort. Lets also hope this doesn't hit Puerto Rico as bad as it is expected to.

More to come. 

Monday, September 18, 2017

Monday Tropical Update: Jose Flirts With Coast, Maria Needs to Be Watched

Good morning.  The tropics continue to be active and we will be dealing with some effects from Hurricane Jose Tuesday and Wednesday. The storm will stay offshore but some rain will make it inland and winds should pick up, especially along coastal areas.

The National hurricane center shows the expected track......


By tomorrow afternoon you can see some outer rain bands trying to make it inland...


Winds will start to pick up by Tuesday night near coastal areas as the storm passes to the east of the Cape. Expect gusts up to 50 mph along the coast maybe locally higher for areas on the Cape. 

The most rain and wind overall will be eastern New England....

This all clears out by Wednesday night letting us then focus on the next more powerful hurricane (could develop to Cat 4) Maria...

Model guidance show a potential track that can effect the East coast next week...


With an area of high pressure to its north, this needs to be watched closely as it can cause the storm to not curve out to sea...


Looks like we will have a lot to keep us busy over the next week.

Thanks for checking in. 

Sunday, September 17, 2017

Tropical Update Tomorrow AM

A lot to discuss. Impacts from Jose are still on the table for middle of this week and we have a more powerful system Maria to follow in the long range.

Stay tuned.

Friday, September 15, 2017

Friday Tropical Update: Jose Flirting With Northeast

Good morning. Well as I mentioned Monday, I would keep you posted if anything evolved with tropical storm/hurricane Jose and it has. Most of the model consensus has come into agreement that this storm will come very close to the east coast early next week. The exact details differ as always but its a threat that needs to be watched.

Currently Jose is a tropical storm but will strengthen back to a Cat 1 and possibly Cat 2 hurricane....


The movement of the storm is being dictated by steering areas of pressure, in particular an area of high pressure to its east...



Earlier in the week the models had this storm turning north then making a sharper turn to the north east. Since then things have changed due to a blocking area of high pressure to Jose's north strengthening on the models. Below shows this trend. Keep an eye on how the placement and strength of that high pressure area to Jose's northeast changes on the image below...

Notice on the last few frames (recent model runs) the area of high pressure becomes larger and further southwest. This blocks Jose and prevents the storm from just moving directly out to sea. I am confident at this time the storm gets blocked, its just a matter of how close to the coast does this get.

The GFS model is the most aggressive and has a Cat 1 Hurricane tucked right into the Mid-Atlantic...

The European is more offshore and flirts with eastern New England...

Both scenarios are very plausible and it will will depend on how strong that block or area of high pressure is I showed you before. If the polar jet stream decides to get too active, it will break down that block and the storm is allowed to escape easier.

At this time I am favoring a solution more towards the European which shows a close call type scenario. If a solution like the GFS verifies then we would have a much bigger problem on our hands.

Stay tuned, daily updates to come. 

Monday, September 11, 2017

Monday Morning: Irma Winding Down, Could Have Been Worse

Winter Outlook 2018 Out Monday October 16th

************************************************************************************


Good morning. As we look at our latest satellite image below, we can see Irma is a shadow of what used to be (currently a very weak cat 1)...



Heavy rains and possible tornado activity will continue today into Northern Florida and Georgia.

The storm hit a few areas particularly hard yesterday including parts of the Keys, Marco Island and Naples. Sustained winds were around 70mph for those areas (higher in the keys) but some gusts above 130mph were recorded. I haven't seen all the reports yet of damage but I know there is some. In terms of storm surge, I have not confirmed that situation either, but I believe it was not as bad as feared.

This storm was impressive in so many ways, especially when it was out over open water. The thing that I found the most fascinating was how the models struggled with this storms exact track even up to yesterday. The land interaction with Cuba for example, was not forcasted on all major models, then the same models that did nail the Cuba interaction failed to see that Irma would move more inland yesterday and not just skirt the west coast of Fl.

The interaction with Cuba was the first reason why this storm did not hit as a Cat 5. Despite the fact the upper air and water conditions were favorable once the storm turned north Friday night towards Florida, it never quite had the time to rev up to what it was. Granted, it got back to a Cat 4 right before landfall. The biggest thing I noticed however was that the eye wall never fully regenerated. The microwave image below shows this. Notice the circle in the middle and how it weakens a little when it goes over Cuba then tries to restrengthen but never gets back to a full closed structure....




You can see it strengthen as it moves north from Cuba but its weighted to the northeast side. The result was still an impressive wind field but not as intense as it could have been. This did surprise me as the pressure really started to drop but the eye never fully recovered. 

Another major factor that helped this storm stay more tame was its track. Notice how the storm goes due north then right into SW Fl as opposed to riding directly up the coast. This helped keep the potential devastating storm surge at bay as the wind configuration was not as ideal for a big surge.

Even tho the European model nailed the west track it failed to see the turn inland as seen below...



The red X's represent the actual storm track vs European model runs. 

So at the end of the day this storm will be remembered as being significantly impactful but not completely devastating as we all feared. We saw how factors can effect a large storm like this and how models struggle even up to the day of the event to handle these factors. In my opinion we dodged a bullet overall. 


So hey how about Jose???  That storm will linger in the Atlantic for a week before trying to figure out where to go. Yes some models have it as an east coast threat, but most have it harmlessly moving out to sea....



I will be the first to keep you posted if anything changes.

That's all for now, thanks for checking in. 

Sunday, September 10, 2017

Sunday Morning: Irma Now Back to Powerful Cat 4, Making landfall in Keys Currently

Irma has restrengthened to a powerful Category 4 storm and its currently making landfall in the Keys. Winds are sustained around 130 mph and the storm can still strengthen some before its landfall on the SW coast of Florida later this afternoon. In the short video below I break down Irma as it makes landfall and expectations for impacts through Florida as the day progresses. Naples, Ft. Meyers, and surrounding areas need to brace for impact. I will have another update later this afternoon.


Saturday, September 9, 2017

Saturday Night Video Update: Irma on Its Final Approach

My latest video discussion breaks down Irma as it makes it northerly turn towards a Florida landfall. This storm will be as strong as expected and everyone at this point should be fully prepared. I will be tracking this as it makes its landfall tomorrow morning.


Saturday Morning Update: On Track, Eastern Florida Gets Crushing Blow...Video Tonight


Good morning. Irma is currently barreling through Cuba and is about to take a turn north towards Florida. Latest winds have weakened due to interaction with Cuba but do not be fooled! This will strengthen again as it makes it turn north towards the Keys and eastern FL. I expect a Cat 4 at landfall.

The outer bands are already starting to impact southern Florida as seen by the radar...




Here is updated NHC track, nothing has changed much just a nudge west...


This is worst case scenario for areas like Keys, Ft. Meyers and Naples, as part of the storm stays over water so it doesn't weaken as fast initially.

Here are updated model projections...


Storm makes landfall early Sunday morning completely crushing the Keys...


By Sunday night its battering Naples area (although impacts start much earlier)...


This will start to weaken significantly by Monday morning prob more than what is shown above but leave a path of destruction in its wake. Below are max wind gusts....


Folks on FL east coast expect sustained winds from 70 to 100mph with gusts above 130 mph, locally much high in hardest hit areas (150mph+). This is no joke!!! The storm surge will be 8+ feet for most prone areas.

Below in my previous post is a video I cut last night breaking this down. I will have another video update tonight between the 6-9pm time frame as Irma makes her final approach into Florida. It will be interesting to see how it re intensifies once over the open water again. A lot to follow!

Stay Tuned!

Friday, September 8, 2017

Friday Night Video Discussion: Irma Making a Beeline Towards Florida

My latest video discussion breaks down what to expect for this historical and massively destructive Hurricane. The power of this storm truly is remarkable.




Video Coverage 830pm

Stay tuned

Friday Hurricane Update: Track Adjustments Being Made

Good morning. We are now getting into crunch time when it comes to tracking Hurricane Irma and its impacts to the US coast. This storm will be absolutely historical and unfortunately leave a big path of destruction in its wake. Based on observations and latest model data I have made updates to my original track and will explain why below. But first, here she is...


The storm is really not weakening at all and maintains a scary structure as seen above. Current winds are at 160mph+. I do not see too much of a weakening trend in its future here. The water is too warm and the upper atmosphere is favorable. 

I have made adjustments to my track. Here is my new map...


Notice the shift I made west. Although we have data indicating this can still be on the eastern side (edge of my red cone) the observations I am seeing back up the western models. The National Hurricane center is similar...

 The american model suite is a little more east of all of this....


This was more in line with my original track but I think it is now wrong. The next image shows the storm positions vs the american models projections over the last few days....


Notice all the lines are basically north of the actual storm positions. This is showing us that the American model has been too far north with its projections so far. The result of this was an earlier turn in the Hurricane hence the more eastern track. If this trend continues it is a warning sign that the American model is making an error.

The European and British models have been more west and have held their ground. The next image shows the European models ensemble system track...

You can see the westward impacts shown above. I adjusted this slightly east to make my map but the idea is clear, all of FL needs to be prepared for a direct hit.

Taking a closer look at impacts, here are projected sustained wind speeds at landfall. I warn we need to still wait 24 hrs to know the exact magnitude of strength but regardless it will be a powerful blow...


Image below shows landfall early Sunday morning with sustained winds of around 130 mph for the Keys into Southern FL. Just a devastating scenario.

The storm will weaken as it travels up Florida but not fast enough for the whole central and southern part of the state. Below shows the wind field as storm moves up coast...


I can not stress enough how impact this Hurricane will be.  Today is critical for watching things evolve and lock in on the exact impact zones. I am interested to see how strong this gets once it starts its right turn towards Florida.

Special video breakdown tonight at 830 pm. Stay tuned.

Thursday, September 7, 2017

Stay Tuned for Frequent Updates

Updated track and video discussions will be out tomorrow and continue throughout duration of this event. Stay tuned.

Thursday Hurricane Update: Honing In On The Track

Good morning everyone. As Irma draws closer to the United States we can now start to really hone in on what this track is actually going to look like. Forecasts can now be made but as always I think this storm throws us a few surprises right until the end. 

The storm currently is approaching Turks and Caicos islands and is maintaining its strength...


Latest readings have a pressure of 921 mb and wind speeds of 178 mph.

My original expected track from a few days ago was this...


I have drew a map with my updated thoughts which have not changed much. Impacts for southern zones start Friday night..



Anyone down in these areas please use the National Hurricane Center to make decisions. Remember I and not a pro and do not do this as a full time job.They have adjusted their track more east in last 24 hours however so I am not far off from what they now have...



I expect this storm to have major major impacts on the east coast of FL along with the coast of South Carolina and Northern Georgia. We will not fully know how bad the conditions will get until about 48 hours before but all signs point to historical impacts. As an idea, here is the projected wind field as the storm moves in from the GFS model. I am using the GFS because it is the closest to what my ideas have been...




Those pink and dark red areas near the center are winds easily over 115 mph and can be much greater. Remember this track is not a lock, any west or east movement puts all of FL and all of the SE coast at risk. This model will shift around! In terms of the pressure level seen that is sub 900, I do not think it gets that low. I will say however sub 920 is not out of the question due to the extremely warm water in this region...



So is there a risk this trends more west or east? At this time I think the trend would be more east if we had to speculate, although I factored all thinking into my current forecast. Where things can go wrong is as usual based on the upper air pattern...



We have multiple components steering this storm. I have discussed many of them over the last few days but this is all of them on one page. 

I will start doing video discussions this weekend along with my morning commentary. Stay tuned.



Wednesday, September 6, 2017

Wednesday Update: Irma Barreling Through Islands, My Forecast on Track (For Now)

Good morning. Irma has continued to maintain its Category 5 intensity with winds of 185mph plus and is currently barreling through the Islands as seen below. This includes the US Virgin Islands.  This storm will maintain its intensity as it makes its way to the US Mainland.

I put my initial track/forecast out (in yellow) Monday night which had impacts from eastern FL into the Carolinas...


Models since then have shifted more towards my ideas as seen by the next image....


Don't be fooled, this forecast is far from over. I will say however that my view of this storm not hitting western FL or the Gulf is starting to pan out well. At this time my biggest concern is eastern FL and the Carolina's. I strongly believe that folks in the southeast need to starting taking this very seriously. 

The National Hurricane Center is starting to shift their cone more east...


Everyone needs to realize that we still are over 100 hrs away from this storm threatening the US. This means more changes in track can occur. The escape route of out to sea is still on the table but I do not assign it a high probability at this time. 

To give an example of model spread check out the GFS models potential storm locations for Saturday night...



You can see the fork in the road developing. Each circle represents a potential storm location. Now check out how this spread widens by early next week!...



This is my point, we have a lot of details to work out here. Everyone on the east coast needs to be on alert. 

As I have been discussing, the exact track of this storm depends on a few key factors steering the storm. These factors include an area of high pressure in the Atlantic and a remnant trough of low pressure moving towards the Southeast US.

The European model was the one major model showing a more west track yesterday from western FL into the eastern Gulf. On its latest run it has shifted east. So lets check out why...

First image below is yesterdays European model at 18000ft in the atmosphere. This shows upper air disturbances. Focus on the piece of energy marked by X diving into the SE....



Now check out the same image but from the GFS model....

Notice on the GFS image this disturbance is further south earlier. This helps steer the storm more due north earlier than European. In simple terms think of it like a seesaw.  Since the euro was originally later with this disturbance the storm was more guided west from the high pressure in the Atlantic before it was allowed to move north.

I based my whole forecast on my expectations on how this evolution would unfold. So far so good but I will be the first to admit this still can change big time. 

Looking at latest models you can see how they maintain a very strong cat 4 or even 5 hurricane as this gets close to the US.

Here is the latest GFS...

New European which has shifted east from yesterday...


Both now follow my ideas but I warn this still can shift. Again, everyone from FL to the Carolinas needs to be on major alert here. 


Thats all for now, more to come keep checking in!