Friday: Yesterday Summed it Up

Good morning. Big chill out there today! Just wait till tonight when temps crash into the 20s.

Summary:

• Weak storm last night left a few inches of snow in the Mtns of New England
• Very cold tonight into tomorrow
• Storm on Monday night-Tuesday should favor interior New England for snow with the chance of some back end snow closer to the coast
• I discussed yesterday why I did not believe this was a big winter storm threat for most areas closer to the coast
• Historical cold arrives Wednesday with temperatures crashing well below normal
• Hat and gloves weather
• Lasts at least through next weekend

Our weak storm system last night left a few inches of snow in the mountains of New England and a coating in other areas up there. To the south, it was mostly a cold rain. Cold temps are here to stay with some moderation by Monday. The big news making cold shot arrives Wednesday. 

The storm system we have been discussing for Tuesday is being projected (for now) as I expected yesterday. Remember I mentioned the chances for snow near coasts was unlikely due to no blocking in place and the storm all coming down to timing between the northern and southern jet streams. Currently models have a inland frontal wave of snow with maybe the chance for a changeover for areas just off the coast as the storm ends.

The European model shows this below valid Monday night into Tuesday. I think it is even too generous with the snow on the back end...

We will see what happens. Good shot however that several inches of show piles up in the interior with this. Given it is the 2nd week of November this makes sense vs the coast. I will keep providing updates as this evolves. Nothing is set in stone.


Then we have a potential historical chill incoming for Wednesday...

The above picture are temperatures Wednesday morning. It will feel colder with the wind chill. This is January weather!

Highs will only reach upper 20s to low 30s. This cold moderates a little but lasts at least through next weekend. It may be November but this is very rare.

Here is a larger scale view of temperature departures from normal Wednesday in F...

The air is directly from the Northern Canada...

This colder than normal pattern is here to stay for now but nothing lasts for ever. I would not be surprised to see moderation by the time December rolls around. 

Enjoy the day. Will have daily updates. 

Thursday: Inland Snow Tonight, Storm Next Week has Issues

Good morning. Most areas will deal with a cold rain today (starting in the afternoon) with a few inches of accumulating snow in the mountains of New England. There is the chance that the first flakes of the season fall for areas in NW, NJ,  NW CT and NE PA on the back end of this late tonight. Nothing that accumulates but regardless do not be surprised if you see a little snow if you live at a high elevation in those areas.

Cold then arrives this weekend. It will be hat and gloves weather Saturday with some moderation Sunday.

We then focus on the next storm threat for Tuesday and Wednesday. I will say at this time I am not very bullish on the chances for anything signifigant for areas near the coasts. In fact, I am not that bullish on a big storm in general based on latest data. I think we will be dealing with eaither an inland wave of low pressure or an offshore dud. In both scenarios the I-95 doesn't see much winter weather. With a lack of atmospheric blocking in place, this storm all comes down to timing of the northern and southern jet stream interaction. 

At this time if I had to pick one model it would be the GFS....

Although what you see above is unlikely the final solution, what it does show is a frontal wave with inland snow with maybe the chance for some snow on the back end for the I-95 Wednesday morning.

The reality is even though cold air is on tap for this storm we do not have the blocking setup in the atmosphere I usually look for. In English this means there in no mechanism to lock in the cold air for this storm.  The only way to see consistent snow for the I-95 is perfect timing between the northern and southern branch of the jet stream. Can it happen? Sure, but very hard to bet on that.

The Canadian model shows that scenario...

At this time I would not bet on that. 

My first guess is inland snow Tuesday with the chance of flakes Wednesday morning for areas closer to the coast.


The model ensembles are not helping at all showing a massive spread of potential low pressure placements...

All this tells me is this storm is nothing but pure timing of northern and southern jet stream energy due to a lack of blocking in the atmosphere.

This will be a tough one to forecast. All options are on the table but I am not betting on anything signifigant at this time.

Oh and by the way, record breaking November cold follows this storm threat. Hat and gloves weather for the rest of next week!

More to come.

Wednesday Update: No Changes for Tomorrow, Watching Winter Potential Next Week

Overview:

Good morning. I do not have many changes for the wave of snow that will impact interior New England tomorrow night. This will not be a big deal as most of the accumulations will be in the Mountains per my map. Other areas see a coating. For the NYC metro its just some rain. There is a CHANCE the mountains of NW NJ (1000ft+) see first flakes with this at the tail end.

The focus then turns to a potential winter storm early next week. I showed you guys earlier this week the "players" that could be involved  in producing this storm. Although it is far from set in stone, the potential is still there and today we will take a closer look. Regardless, cold air that is a month ahead of schedule arrives this weekend into next week with temps in the 30s.

Breakdown:

For tomorrow night, here is my map. I made no changes from yesterday. Expect 2-4 inches for the mountains and a coating elsewhere in the blue area. There is the outside chance a few areas at higher elevations on the nw edge of the green zone see first flakes.

Here is model projection for tomorrow night into early Friday, notice hints at some flakes in NW NJ at the back end...

Very cold air then follows for the weekend with lows in the 20s highs in 30s to low 40s...

We then turn our attention to the storm threat for next week. Here was my original image illustrating this threat from Monday...

To examine this further, lets take a look at the jet stream and what can come together to produce this storm...

The key here is do the two jet streams labeled above come together along the east coast. If they do there is enough cold air in place to produce an early season winter storm in the red circle area. I also labeled a key factor here that "high pressure ridge" in the atlantic. This helps steer the storm up the coast. Depending how how strong this ends up being will determine if we have a storm that comes up the coast. This is the most unclear detail at this time. 

As an example look how the models have shifted last few days with the sharpness of this high pressure ridge...

Notice in the last few frames how the model has sharpened the ridge out in the Atlantic.

At this surface this is what that does. Notice the storm pop up...

So you can see the factors we need to watch here. As I said on Monday they are all on the table its just if they come together. 

If we think about this logically (which in weather terms doesn't always mean it ends up right) the overall air pattern early next week features a very cold air mass and a warm ocean...

One would think that a storm would want to form on the boundary between the warmer air off the coast of the Atlantic and the cold air that is bleeding into the country. This would mean a storm that comes up the coast.

In terms of areas to watch for early next week  for snow IF this develops, I think are represented best by this map below which uses historical analogs (similar atmospheric setups) to project impacts...

Given the impressive nature of the air mass I would say even the NYC metro and all of coastal New England have a shot here. for Southern NJ into DE and MD I would not count on it.


We got something to track here! Lets see if it comes together. Daily updates to come.

Tuesday Update: Honing in On New England Snow Threat

Good morning. Yesterday I discussed the snow threat for New England for the end of this week. I left the chance for some flakes to fly a little further south. The updated data is in and I am now starting to finalize what I think will happen Thursday night.

Here is my updated map...

Notice there is an adjustment a little north compared to yesterdays first guess of where impacts may be...

Tomorrow I will release my final forecast.

Overall the models are starting to come into agreement. Yesterday I discussed how I thought the GFS was not handling the situation properly and that the European had a better idea. As stands today the GFS has corrected more towards the European but the European also has moved more towards the GFS. This is very common and is a great example of why we need more than one model. At this time I would say a blend of 60% European 40% GFS is the way to go for this system.


Here has been the GFS adjustment west last few days from nothing to a frontal wave with snow...

The european has also shifted a little in the upper levels of the atmosphere...

All this means is that the models are starting to converge on a solution. My map above is my best guess on what will happen.


Very cold air follows this weekend...

Highs in 30s for many areas and lows in low to upper 20s by Saturday night.


We then keep our eye on next week for potential storm development. Here is my image from yesterday. This is just speculation at this point but its worth discussing due to the pattern. We will discuss more if necessary if anything evolves..

Stay tuned. 

Monday: Cold Air and Winter Potential Next 10 Days

Good morning. All you need to do is go outside and you will realize winter is in the air over our region. Temperatures are currently in the high 20's to low 30's. Expect a little moderation this week but as we approach the weekend we have storm potential to track both end of this week and early next week.

Summary:

• Very cold temps this morning give way to a moderation as we progress through the 1st half of the week
• expect highs in the mid to upper 50s
• As we approach Thursday night there is the potential for a winter storm to impact the interior (NW I-95, mainly New England)
• accumulating snow is possible especially in New England Thursday night into Friday
• Higher elevations of NW NJ also can see some flakes
• A bitterly cold air mass this arrives for the weekend
• Highs will be in the 30's Sat and Sunday and 20's at night!
• More action on the table next week as the pattern stays cold and active

So lets dive into details...

We are currently in a very impressive weather pattern for early November. A big ridge in the jet stream out west is blocking any mild pacific air from entering the country. Instead we have direct injections from Canada...

This pattern is looking to stick around for at least the 1st half of November. This means there is enough cold air for winter weather potential despite what the calendar says.


As we approach Thursday night a piece of energy from the SW is going to be moving into our area. If the configuration of the jet stream aligns properly this can cause snow to break out Thursday night for many areas....

The above image is the European model valid late Thursday night which I think has been handling this the best. Not a big storm but a wave of low pressure that can pile up some moderate accumulations across the interior.

The European ensemble mean gives the best idea of where the accumulating snow 
CAN occur...

If this pans out, areas of NW NJ above 800ft will also see some flakes fly. Other areas close to coast is rain.

Now of course this isnt a lock.

The GFS model has not been as bullish and has a flat wave with no storm...

I explained on twitter yesterday I think this is wrong due to how the GFS is handling the upper air energy...

It is too fast and flat with the northern disturbance as shown above which squashes the storm. A common error with this model and I believe it starts to correct closer the European.

Here is the area I would be focused on for this..

We will keep an eye on this. 

In the wake we have bitterly cold air that arrives for the weekend...

Highs this weekend will likely feel like mid December in the 30's with lows at night in the lower 20s!

We then have more potential mischief next week....

I will wait to comment on this, but the pattern is very loaded right now. I would be surprised if we do not see at least 1 storm from all of this next 2 weeks.

Stay tuned more to come.

Tracking Storm Potential for Thursday Night/Friday

Details to come tomorrow morning.

Friday: Quite The Front Last Night

Our first real cold front of the season has arrived.

Temperatures are very cold this morning up and down the east coast...

The squall line that moved through late last night associated with this front was very impressive. The winds really where whipping around 12 am.


The cold air settles in for the weekend with nighttime lows in the 30's and highs in the upper 40's to low 50's this weekend.

Temps moderate a little early next week then we have an even more impressive cold shot on tap as we head towards next weekend as I mentioned earlier this week.

We will be talking more about this. The season is changing!