Monday: Some Light Snow/Mix Moving in Today

 Good morning. We have a weak disturbance approaching the region this morning which will bring some light snow (up to 1" high elevations) and mixed precipitation. This will taper off tonight and just be a nuisance. We may however whiten things up in NW NJ again...

We then have our next disturbance move in on Wednesday morning. This looks to be more wet than white outside of extreme NNJ. I am keeping my eye on this to see if it can trend a little colder...

At this time I would not count on snow Wednesday but it is a close call for some and we will keep an eye on it.

Things for the rest of the week are on the seasonable side. We will have a storm approaching the region New Years weekend but at this time it does not look like snow. There could be a scenario where rain changes to snow but its too far off.

More sustainable cold then should arrive by next week. This is the period that needs to produce some snow or it just may not be in the cards this year. The weather pattern that is currently causing rain/warm air to enter our region shows some signs of breaking down BUT we need to see if it is temporary

Above is the pattern for first week of Jan. Notice the blue is bleeding more east. IF this happens we can see some real cold air finally and snow. Issue can be if the models trends back to the west with this. Time will tell. Stay tuned .

Merry Christmas!.....Snow on the Ground for Some, Rain for Christmas Day

 Merry Christmas eve! Many across NNJ, PA and NE woke up to a white ground this morning. At my location in NW NJ, we got about 1.5". Really makes for a nice scene this Christmas Eve. The bad news is it will wash away tomorrow as some rain will move in for Christmas day.

We then go into a wildcard period next week. Areas south of NNJ likely see more rain next week when areas to the north have the chance at some more snow. In particular, interior New England should see more snow accumulate with areas like Southern New England to NNJ a battle zone of snow/ice and rain.

Lets take a look...

Warmer air moves in tonight and it rains Christmas day...

This will take out the snow that fell this morning sadly.

We then have an interesting situation Monday evolving. High pressure will establish itself to our northeast, holding in cold air as a disturbance approaches from the SW. There is a shot areas like PA NNJ etc see snow from this.

Due to the strength of the HP, this disturbance will weaken as it approaches but it still can drop a few inches Monday in PA and NW NJ. It will be a close call on if this system can keep up its strength.

We then go into a very volatile setup as warm air tries to surge from the SE next week but is held off in New England by cold air holding firm. This will set up a battle zone and at this time it appears Ski Country can do well. For areas to the south, it will be harder to snow...

The reason this is happening is there is a massive ridge of HP out in the pacific (red blob) which is causing all the cold air and storm energy to originate in the west. This will dump insane amounts of snow over the western ski areas....

The energy then tries to eject east towards our region. Warm air is ahead of it except in New England, as there is enough HP over Canada to reinforce cold air due to the block over Greenland. This sets up our battle zone of rain and snow.

In order to see snow further south, we need to see that blue in the west move eastward and knock down the warm air. This MAY happen by around the turn of the New Year...

For areas in the Mid-Atl and southern New England if this verifies this will be the short for more sustainable winter weather. We need to see if this verifies or if it just defaults back to its current state.

Stay tuned. Merry Christmas!

Friday Weather Pattern Update: The Stage is Set for Wintery Period End of December

 The only question will be does it want to snow. Good morning.

We have currently been in a mild period of weather across the east. That pattern will start to end this weekend as New England sees a snowfall event then other areas to the south start to transition to colder weather Christmas week.  In fact, we have a very impressive "blocking pattern" that is projected to develop the last week of December. If this verifies it will be hard to escape the end of the month without some snowflakes or even a storm. 

Lets take a look...

Currently we have warm air (red) over our area from the south...

This has been the pattern all week, hence the mild conditions.

By later this weekend, a storm system brings snow to New England. This will be the start of our pattern change...

Storm moves in Saturday late afternoon into Sunday morning. Many areas will see a few inches of snow and ski areas may see up to 10"...

We then enter the period that could see more action further south. One of the most important factors for a chance at snow in the Northeast closer to the coasts is high pressure over Greenland or a Negative NAO pattern. As next week evolves models develop a very impressive -NAO as seen by red or high pressure over Greenland below...

Why is this important? It slows down the jet stream in the east giving the chance for storm energy to consolidate and also tends to lock in cold high pressure systems ahead of storms.

The first period I have my eye on is around the 23rd for something to spin up. The models do not show anything yet, but it bears watching due to this block and two strong impulses of energy in the eastern 1/3...

If nothing develops then, this pattern will continue through the end of December and will give us a few more shots for stormy weather to develop. In fact, some models even show some flakes Christmas Day..

No guarantees, but with an end of December pattern like this at least we got a shot...

Stay tuned.

Tuesday Morning Update: Weaker Trends, Mostly Non-Event Tomorrow

 Good morning. The storm system has trended weaker and offshore overnight. I am gaining confidence this will be mostly a non-event for most areas. That means just a few snow showers tomorrow with very limited if any accumulations. The only region I can still see a few inches accumulate is SE New England.

Here is my updated map:

Unless you live in the blue area I would expect zero issues tomorrow. If you live in the blue zone it still will not be too bad as snow will not fall to heavy and be scattered. 

This is pretty much a non event.

You can see from this one model above, most of the energy stays off shore then we see that back end band hit eastern New England. This has been pretty consistent on models and will cause an inch or two with more in the mountains. 

After tomorrow we then hit a mild period starting this weekend through at least the following week. There are then hints that our next wintery period will be around Christmas but those details need to be worked out. 

Stay tuned. 

Monday Night Update: Forecast Looks Good, Next Update in the AM

After today's model runs I like the current forecast for Wednesday's light snow event. Outside SE New England, I really do not see this as more than 1-2 inches max for most folks. For SE New England, there will probably be a localized area that sees over 4" . Timing is Wednesday morning into the afternoon. 

For most in PA and NJ, I do not expect any major travel delays. Roads should stay warm and it will not be snowing hard enough to overcome that. In the higher elevations of NW NJ, I can see a light cover on the roadways as it will be a little colder. In RI, Eastern Mass, and CT there could be bigger delays in the afternoon.

More tomorrow. 

Monday Update: Shot at Some Snow on Wednesday

 Good morning. For last few days I have been tracking a snow threat for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Nothing major, but definitely the chance to whiten up the ground and cause a few inches to fall in some areas. 

Rain will move though today then things get cold. It is this cold front that our next wintery storm system will try to ride along. The big question is how close to the coast the storm center gets. Some models are showing a non event with a few snow showers while others have a few inches falling. Below is my first estimate of what I think can happen. Timeframe is Wednesday morning into the afternoon. I will be updating this daily so stay tuned...

There continues to be a spread in models with this. Some have a non event while others show a few inches falling. My forecast is based on how I think things will trend. If I need to adjust to no snow that will happen tomorrow. Keep in mind this is preliminary. 

I will have an update around 8pm tonight.

Sunday Note: Watching for Snow Shot Wed

 Good morning. Over the last few days I have been tracking a potential chance for snow on Wednesday. I will have a post tonight breaking down my thoughts. 

Stay tuned.

Saturday Update: Winter is Here, Snow Flakes Start Falling

 Good morning. I hope everyone had a nice Thanksgiving. Our weather pattern has made an abrupt change and winter is now here. Snow is currently falling in the Mountains of New England this morning, where areas like Stowe can see up to 20 inches as a low pressure system spins off the coast of Maine.

For other areas, it is a very cold and blustery weekend. Light snow will fall tomorrow from PA into NNJ and likely accumulate a little in areas like interior Mass. Heading into next week, our cold pattern continues with multiple shots at light snow in New England and the potential for something bigger 7-10 days out.

Lets take a look...

Very cold windy conditions in the Northeast today with storm offshore causing mountain effect snows over New England...

Tomorrow afternoon a very weak clipper low pressure system moves in and light snow will fall from PA into Northern NJ and New England...

For NW NJ up to a coating can fall, for areas like NW CT into interior Mass I can see 1-2 inches from this falling tomorrow.

The cold pattern then continues through all of next week with multiple clipper systems giving the chance at more light snow...

The cold air is being seeded by NW Canada and will continue to flow in all week. As we get to next weekend we will have to watch for something bigger to develop as the jet stream can amplify on Saturday into Sunday...

Stay tuned, more to come.

Tuesday: Thanksgiving Outlook, Colder Weather Takes Hold

 Good morning. Our weather pattern per my last post is evolving as expected. Very cold air over the region now  will give way to slightly warmer conditions Thanksgiving day. Colder air then arrives again for this weekend into next week. Snow will start falling near the Great Lakes and in mountain areas of New England this weekend. 

In term of any snowfall closer to the coast, I think we can see snow showers early next week as an upper level low spins over the area. There is a small outside chance a storm system could develop around Monday, but that is pure speculation for now. Regardless, winter is here.

Stay tuned will have another post this week as details become more clear. 

Friday Weather Update: Taking a Look at Thanksgiving Week

Good morning. Normal posting frequency for the winter season is starting. Expect a few posts a week discussing the evolving weather pattern.

Today I want to briefly touch on Thanksgiving week. The weather will be a little bit of a roller coaster with back and forth weather conditions.

In summary, we will see cold air take hold into this weekend, back off for a day or two then reestablish its self mid week. Thanksgiving may be a little warmer but then things cool down again next weekend. In terms of storms, we have a big frontal system that moves through on Monday that can cause New England mountain snows, then my eyes are on late next weekend for a storm to develop. More below.

Cold air takes hold through Saturday before a brief warmup Sunday. Lows on Saturday morning will be in the 20's in many spots...

Warmer air arrives Sunday ahead of a big frontal system on Monday that sweeps through the area...

There is a blocking pattern in place so as this swings through the ski areas of New England can see some upslope mtn snows on Tuesday as the low pressure sits off the coast. Expect colder than normal conditions for other areas with the chance at snow flurries/showers.

Things then get more seasonable for Thanksgiving ahead of a potential storm system late next weekend into early the following week. This is very far off so now things will get speculative. What I am watching is a blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere evolve. What this means is high pressure over Greenland could cause the jet stream to get clogged up and energy to consolidate along the east coast...

What you see above is what im talking about. Red areas are high pressure, blue are lower pressures. If and this is a big if, we see things come together correctly, a storm could develop somewhere in the eastern 1/3 late next weekend. If on the other hand this pattern breaks down, then nothing will occur.

Just some speculation for now but I will keep an eye on it. Stay tuned. 

Active Weather Thanksgiving Week

 Stay tuned. Will discuss soon.

Cold Air Takes Hold, Winter Can Arrive by End of Month

 More to come but we currently have chilly weather settling into the region next few days. Expect a hard freeze in many areas off the coast at night.

Things will warm up again next week before we see our next shot at cold weather second half of November. The projected pattern below looks very wintery if it holds through early December.

Stay tuned.

The 2022 Winter Outlook

Good evening. Its funny, every year I contemplate if it is even worth putting out a winter forecast. Seasonal predictions are a very humbling experience. The weather will always do what the weather wants to do regardless how much research or modeling goes into a forecast. Regardless, I still put these out because I realize everyone finds them interesting and there have been years where I have been some years where my ideas did pan out.

The forecast is broken into two sections. In section one I have graphics and a quick summary of what I expect. In section two, I will have a video breaking down the research behind the forecast. I will release this video later this week.

Section 1: The Overall Forecast

Temperatures:

Snowfall:

Overall I expect an excellent ski season out west this year as a La Nina pattern and -PDO pattern will cause a lot of storm energy to hit the Pacific Northwest and move into the mountain regions. As this happens we will see warmer than normal temps take over for the eastern 1/3 at times. 

However, I do expect the pattern to have some back and forth where energy consolidates along the east coast aided by high latitude blocking. This means that if we see high pressure to our north over Canada and Greenland the energy that hits the pacific northwest will get trapped under it as it approaches the east coast. This will help lock in colder air and cause winter storms. 

The question is how often does this occur. I think the west coast pattern will be pretty consistent this winter and if that blocking is not in place for the east coast we will see mild weather. Early signs do indicate however that blocking should occur, which means there will be wintery periods in the east. 

I expect above average snowfall for interior New England with average snowfall for the northern Mid-Atlantic and below average for areas to the south (due to southeast ridge). If we get one mega storm however, that can tip the scales for above normal snowfall for a much wider region. I am not dismissing this given how much water vapor is in the atmosphere.

In terms of timing, there are signs winter can get off to a fast start. I already see signs for New England to see snowfall in November and the question will a similar pattern hold for December for areas further to the south. Time will tell.

Section II: The Video

Stay tuned.

 

Winter Outlook out 8pm Tonight.. Big Nor'easter impacts the region tonight through Tuesday

 Stay tuned!

In the meantime, our first Noreaster of the season will impact the region tonight through Tuesday. Expect rounds of heavy rain and some wind. If this was the winter it would be a heavy snowstorm as the current pattern is very impressive.

Check out the evolution of this powerful storm below... from tonight through tomorrow.

WINTER OUTLOOK 2022 OUT MONDAY, OCTOBER 25TH

STAY TUNED

Historic Storm Last Night...Horrible Flooding in Areas

 Ida is gone, but it has left its mark. In Randolph NJ I reported 5.7" of rain with max rainfall rates of 1.3" per hour. I also had a wind gust of 47mph. Just to my southeast however much more impactful. Major flooding with parts of towns underwater including NYC. Up to 8" of rain fell.  We also had a destructive tornado in CNJ that looked like a scene out of Oklahoma.

Weather now gets very nice through the weekend. A fall like crisp will be in the air. Enjoy!

Wednesday: Very Heavy Rain Through Tonight, Flooding in Areas

 Good morning. The remnants of hurricane Ida are moving toward the area this morning and will pack quite the punch. The atmosphere is loaded with moisture and there will be strong dynamics to support very heavy rainfall across the area. Given the soil is saturated and rivers are already very high, flooding will happen in spots. When it's all said and done expect 3 to 6 inches of rain NW of I 95 and locally more in spots.

The National Weather Service has a flood advisory...

Current radar shows a warm front associated with approaching Ida causing a front end band of rain to move into the area. This over running rain will last throughout the day and will become heavy at times...

We have very moist air in place running into cooler air to our north. This assent of air causes lift and rain to occur. Ida is still behind all of this and moves in later tonight as seen by the very intense rain projected below...

This image is valid 10pm tonight. This is where things can get very intense from a rainfall and winf perspective. This is the core of Idas remnants. Expect very very heavy rainfall and Gusty winds up to 35 mph. This is where the flooding concern can really become an issue as the rainfall rates will be extreme at times.

Here are projected wind gusts at this time..

This is over by tomorrow morning. When it is all said and done here is what some models are showing for total rainfall. The numbers look like a snowstorm...

Nam model..

GFS model..

European...

As you can see, very high rainfall is projected. There will be a narrow band that sees over 5 inches somewhere from NW NJ into PA and southern New England.

Stay tuned. Will be on Twitter as this unfolds.

Saturday Night Storm Update: Henri Making Its Final Approach

 Good evening. We can now narrow down the finer details of Hurricane Henri. The latest data keeps the storm a little weaker but still tracks it into eastern Long Island/Rhode Island as it makes a left turn into the mainland and weakens it from a hurricane to a tropical storm. The biggest impacts will be at the immediate coasts with costal flooding and high wind gusts. At this time it does not look like Henri will stay hurricane status before impact (75MPH+ winds). Regardless, there will still be big impacts for some.

Here is updated NHC forecast...

Notice the center of the cone is the large impacts with the winds that will gust over 50mph and storm surge.

The storm currently sits just off the coast of VA and is trying to strengthen...

Not the most impressive looking system ive seen but it still will pack a punch.

Here is expected tropical storm force wind probabilities (39mph plus sustained)...

Storm makes landfall early tomorrow morning...

Areas near the center of that eye will see the strongest winds along the immediate coast. To the west its a soaking rain all day with gusty winds at times.

By the afternoon notice the storm gets pulled west...

Heavy rain becomes the threat in NJ NY etc tomorrow. Several inches could fall...

There continues to be a model spread in terms of rain placement. The GFS has a narrower swath of rain...

The NAM model tugs it much more west into NJ with soaking rains...

I think we split the difference here. 

The storm is over by tomorrow night. In its wake expect to see most damage from flooding at the coasts where that eye hits and stacks up water along the shorelines.

Good thing this isn't going to hit as a stronger storm or it would be devastating. 

We will see how this looks by morning. 

Hurricane Henri to Impact Northeast Sunday

 Good evening. It has been a while since my last post but we got a big weather situation on tap for later this weekend. Tropical Storm Henri is currently sitting off of the east coast of the United States and is forecasted to move north than make a turn towards the Long Island area. The model solutions have been quite spread last few days, but now they are starting to converge on this Long Island solution. It has been a long time since we have had a hurricane hit this region and its safe to say we are overdue. If things pan out as expected, we can see major coastal flooding issues and damage from this storm. 

Lets take a look...

Here is satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Henri...

It is currently a tropical storm and is forecasted to potentially reach a category 1 or 2 Hurricane status right before it makes Landfall Sunday.

Here is National Hurricane Center forecast....

This storm was initially tracking to hit Cape Cod or just to the east but over the last 24 hours some key things have happened to cause all the models to show this storm making the left turn. All major models are now showing this...

GFS...

European...

North American Model...

You can see how these model are showing landfall somewhere between central Long Island to Eastern CT and RI.

There still is quite the degree of spread however as some models show a more west track then what is even seen here...

Above are the hurricane model forecast track spread for the storm. Notice that western cluster. The next 24 hours will be key to determine if those more western solutions have merit. What we would need to see is the storm start to strengthen more rapidly which would support that western solution. 

This whole storm track comes down to what is going on in the upper atmosphere. We currently have a blocking pattern in place with high pressure to the north steering this storm towards the coast and a trough incoming from the west that is helping capture and pull the storm in...

A better way of showing this is the animation below. Notice how the red or high pressure to the north is trending stronger which helps push the storm more west...

At this time I think this hits the center of Long Island. The more westward solution can happen but sometimes these models over estimate the strength of the storm. I also think this hits as at least a category 1 Hurricane with sustained winds 75mph plus and very bad coastal flooding. This is a situation to take very seriously. 

Here is the projected tropical storm wind coverage on Sunday (above 39mph sustained)...

Do not be surprised to see this shift a little bit more west.

Stay tuned. Tomorrow morning I will have a more impact specific post as we finitize this track.