The only question will be does it want to snow. Good morning.
We have currently been in a mild period of weather across the east. That pattern will start to end this weekend as New England sees a snowfall event then other areas to the south start to transition to colder weather Christmas week. In fact, we have a very impressive "blocking pattern" that is projected to develop the last week of December. If this verifies it will be hard to escape the end of the month without some snowflakes or even a storm.
Lets take a look...
Currently we have warm air (red) over our area from the south...
This has been the pattern all week, hence the mild conditions.
By later this weekend, a storm system brings snow to New England. This will be the start of our pattern change...
Storm moves in Saturday late afternoon into Sunday morning. Many areas will see a few inches of snow and ski areas may see up to 10"...
We then enter the period that could see more action further south. One of the most important factors for a chance at snow in the Northeast closer to the coasts is high pressure over Greenland or a Negative NAO pattern. As next week evolves models develop a very impressive -NAO as seen by red or high pressure over Greenland below...
Why is this important? It slows down the jet stream in the east giving the chance for storm energy to consolidate and also tends to lock in cold high pressure systems ahead of storms.
The first period I have my eye on is around the 23rd for something to spin up. The models do not show anything yet, but it bears watching due to this block and two strong impulses of energy in the eastern 1/3...
If nothing develops then, this pattern will continue through the end of December and will give us a few more shots for stormy weather to develop. In fact, some models even show some flakes Christmas Day..
No guarantees, but with an end of December pattern like this at least we got a shot...
Stay tuned.
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