Merry Christmas eve! Many across NNJ, PA and NE woke up to a white ground this morning. At my location in NW NJ, we got about 1.5". Really makes for a nice scene this Christmas Eve. The bad news is it will wash away tomorrow as some rain will move in for Christmas day.
We then go into a wildcard period next week. Areas south of NNJ likely see more rain next week when areas to the north have the chance at some more snow. In particular, interior New England should see more snow accumulate with areas like Southern New England to NNJ a battle zone of snow/ice and rain.
Lets take a look...
Warmer air moves in tonight and it rains Christmas day...
This will take out the snow that fell this morning sadly.
We then have an interesting situation Monday evolving. High pressure will establish itself to our northeast, holding in cold air as a disturbance approaches from the SW. There is a shot areas like PA NNJ etc see snow from this.
Due to the strength of the HP, this disturbance will weaken as it approaches but it still can drop a few inches Monday in PA and NW NJ. It will be a close call on if this system can keep up its strength.
We then go into a very volatile setup as warm air tries to surge from the SE next week but is held off in New England by cold air holding firm. This will set up a battle zone and at this time it appears Ski Country can do well. For areas to the south, it will be harder to snow...
The reason this is happening is there is a massive ridge of HP out in the pacific (red blob) which is causing all the cold air and storm energy to originate in the west. This will dump insane amounts of snow over the western ski areas....
The energy then tries to eject east towards our region. Warm air is ahead of it except in New England, as there is enough HP over Canada to reinforce cold air due to the block over Greenland. This sets up our battle zone of rain and snow.
In order to see snow further south, we need to see that blue in the west move eastward and knock down the warm air. This MAY happen by around the turn of the New Year...
For areas in the Mid-Atl and southern New England if this verifies this will be the short for more sustainable winter weather. We need to see if this verifies or if it just defaults back to its current state.
Stay tuned. Merry Christmas!
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