Good morning. The remnants of hurricane Ida are moving toward the area this morning and will pack quite the punch. The atmosphere is loaded with moisture and there will be strong dynamics to support very heavy rainfall across the area. Given the soil is saturated and rivers are already very high, flooding will happen in spots. When it's all said and done expect 3 to 6 inches of rain NW of I 95 and locally more in spots.
The National Weather Service has a flood advisory...
Current radar shows a warm front associated with approaching Ida causing a front end band of rain to move into the area. This over running rain will last throughout the day and will become heavy at times...
We have very moist air in place running into cooler air to our north. This assent of air causes lift and rain to occur. Ida is still behind all of this and moves in later tonight as seen by the very intense rain projected below...
This image is valid 10pm tonight. This is where things can get very intense from a rainfall and winf perspective. This is the core of Idas remnants. Expect very very heavy rainfall and Gusty winds up to 35 mph. This is where the flooding concern can really become an issue as the rainfall rates will be extreme at times.
Here are projected wind gusts at this time..
This is over by tomorrow morning. When it is all said and done here is what some models are showing for total rainfall. The numbers look like a snowstorm...
Nam model..
GFS model..
European...
As you can see, very high rainfall is projected. There will be a narrow band that sees over 5 inches somewhere from NW NJ into PA and southern New England.
Stay tuned. Will be on Twitter as this unfolds.
Piscataway NJ checking in. Holy shit, there had to be 8-10" rain between 6PM and 12 midnight. We saw roads flood that I've never see flood except during Floyd in '99. I think we did 15-20 water rescues just in our part of town. Hundreds of flooded cars, just in Piscataway. Almost all flooding was in areas by small creeks/streams. They were just inundated. Too much, too fast. Most flooding was gone by 11:30 or 12PM. I think this NWS forecast for this storm WAY underestimated rainfall for central NJ.
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