7pm update:
No need to say much. This is playing out exactly as i expected for once. Several inches of snow to the NW with a changeover to snow working its way east. Limited accumulations there however.
Bitter cold on tap for rest of week.
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Good morning. Sorry for no video last night, I got home later than expected. A light to moderate winter event will effect parts of the region today. Low pressure will develop along a cold front and bring precipitation into the area this afternoon into tonight. Expect rain or a mixed bag of precipitation to start for most areas with a few hours of snow at the tail end tonight.
Summary:
- Some light snow this morning but limited impacts
- Main impacts are tonight for most areas after 5pm
- Heavier snow and rain moves into the region this afternoon after 2 pm
- Expect snow in NW NJ at high elevations and a mix of rain and snow for other areas to start
- By 6-9 pm any rain should change to some snow for most areas
- 1-3 inches will accumulate in areas that saw rain/mix to start
- 3-6 inches for areas at high elevations in NW NJ and PA
- Storm is over between 8-11pm
- Bitter cold follows for Wednesday and Thursday as an arctic blast hits the region
Here is an updated model snowfall map. Except for NW areas of the state, most of these 1-3 inch amounts occur tonight not today...
To the north, more snow falls in the interior..
In terms of storm timing, here is what to expect...
This morning light snow is seen on the radar, but nothing that will cause any impacts..
By the time we get to later this afternoon, snow breaks out to the northwest with rain or mixed precipitation for most areas..
The transition to all snow then occurs between 7-9pm..
This is where most areas pick up 1-3 inches. The storm is then over before midnight.
Bitter cold then starts to arrive Wednesday and peaks on Thursday. Temperatures on Thursday will struggle to get past the single digits...
This is all thanks to a piece of the polar vortex swinging through the area.
If you think this is bad, our friends out in the midwest will see recording breaking cold. Temperatures will go below -20 for many areas tomorrow with below-30 to the way north. This is EXTREME cold...
Luckily this moderates a little before it hits us.
In the long range things then moderate as we head towards next week. As I mentioned the other day, at this point snow lovers need to be happy with one big storm before the season is over. I think thats the best we can do at this point.
I will have an update tonight.
I know you said northern Vermont has a decent amount of snow, I live in central
ReplyDeleteMaine and we have about 18" of hard pack on the ground and was just at the mountains and well over 3-4 feet up there, how do you think Maine will continue to fair the next month or so? Thanks for frequent post, always good to have someone who puts in the work give the forecast. Andrw
I think Maine does great through March this year. More snow coming your way for sure. Glad you are enjoying the blog!
DeleteHey Willy, it's been a while, I haven't been bothering you so far this season. That's because I decided to knuckle down and learn a bit of real meteorology, I've been watching the Teaching Company course on basic meteorology ("The Wonders of the Weather") by Dr. Robert Fovell at UCLA. And I learned about humility regarding the weather, if nothing else! My goodness, my head is still spinning from all that horizontal sheer, vertical sheer, Coriolis effect, vorticity, convection, advection, frontal boundaries, low pressure spin, adiabatic process, occlusion, convective condensation, mountain effects, Hadley, Ferrel and Polar cells ... geez, it's all so complicated! I probably need to go thru all this stuff again to retain even 50% of it.
ReplyDeleteNonetheless, let me make a comment or two on this particular winter season. Yes, we did have a big polar stratosphere warming around the turn of the year, and predictably, the warped vortex and massive cold shots have been happening. Like, right now!! And we've also been getting storms that get spinned up in the south at the big bend of the southern jet, right according to the playbook. But most of those storms seem to bring a whole lot of warm air up with them. And the NAO has been staying mostly +, so they don't get bottled up anywhere near us. I guess this winter has been something of a battle between CP and MT air, the usual script, but MT has been more powerful than usual. Why might that be? OK, despite my new-found humility, let me venture a guess -- the QBO, and some kind of crazy side-effect of the El Nino trend in the Pacific. As you probably know, the QBO flipped back to westerly / zonal late last year, and those winds usually pump more warm air into the semi-tropical basin to our south. I know that the putative El Nino is being rated as a weakling at best, and that the waters off the coast of Peru and Chile are still quite chilly (sorry, I can't resist a bad pun). Looks like a Modoki Nino at best. BUT . . . look at all that warm water just to the north, coming up towards Guatemala, Mexico and the Baha . . . and notice that the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Atlantic are also relatively warm. It looks roughly as though some kind of heat-flow from the central Pacific into the southern US is occurring. So when the southern jet gets kinked and flows up toward us, it seems to be conveying enough heat to keep the snow pretty far inland once it meets up with the polar jet.
Well OK, with all due humility, I know there might be a lot more to it than that. But still, this seems to roughly describe our east coast winter season thus far. And the QBO zonal trend should be growing into February and March. I agree that you could still get lucky with an event where the cold pushes the warm flow far enough east so that snow accumulates along the coast. You might get a bad week for the NAO. But if the trend continues, we might be in for an early spring, unless there's another stratosphere warming event.
Just my .02, with all due humility! Jim G, Montclair NJ
Hey Jim! Glad to hear from you.
DeleteI think what you just said makes a lot of sense! I have been looking at those warm waters as well along with the QBO. There is no question the warm air is winning this year in terms of approaching storm systems. A large part is a lack of a west based -NAO to hold in the cold highs. But I think its a little more than that as well. There is so much water vapor down there in the tropics right now that when there is any chance for that air to surge it wins the battle with the cP air. We saw late summer this trend start with all that rainfall and now its effecting the winter. Also, the atmopshere is not even behaving like an el nino. The SOI has been more la nina in the last several weeks.
Bottom line I think you nailed it! Its a problem that is not going to go away and to get the big storm before winters is over we need the block or i'll be ready for spring myself.
As far as the courses you are taking go. I have looked at some of those myself along with other self education tools. It is alot to digest and takes years. The basic stuff like atmospheric circulation (Hadley, Ferrell etc) is very helpful to understand. Really is the foundation for how our jet streams and atmosphere works.
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