Thursday: Major Winter Storm This Weekend, Major Ice NW of I-95 Possible

Good morning. As our weekend storm threat continues to close in on us, we can now try to sort out additional details. My post yesterday really broke down the setup for this storm and why I thought the cold air at the surface would put of a fight. I suggest you check out that post if you missed it.

Today I want to focus on some more detail behind what the major impacts will be. As I continue to look at updated models, one word keeps coming to mind, ice. Also, who ever does see more rain, temperatures are going to plumet Monday morning and cause a flash freeze. A lot going on!

Before I get to that, do not forget we have light snow coming in late tonight till daybreak. Expect 1-3 inches for many CNJ  northward with locally 4 inch amounts by tomorrow morning.

Back to our weekend storm...


What will start for many as a front end thump of several inches of snow later on Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, will then transition to sleet then freezing rain. This is going to happen as precipitation rates really pick up. That means we can end up seeing signifigant ice accumulations by Sunday. My updated map below illustrates my point...

First off for areas in dark blue, this is an all out snowstorm with well over a foot of snow for many. The region I want to focus on however is the dark pink where after several inches of snow fall, we can see over a half inch of ice accumulate. That would not be a good situation and we need to monitor closely. Remember just because you many only see 4 inches of snow, that does not mean impacts are low. The ice to follow will be a much bigger threat.

Lets take a look at model projections. I am using the NAM model because I think it looks correct...

What starts as a front end thump of snow Saturday afternoon...

Changes over to ice as warm air works its way in aloft...

Due to the deep arctic air mass ahead of this storm...

Temperatures at the surface are not looking to budge seen blow, despite the fact warm air will work in aloft....

This spells ice storm and I am concerned there will be big impacts.

To make matters worse, bitter cold air moves in on Monday morning with temps in single digits and teens causing a flash freeze...

We still are 2.5 days away from this event. Things can change to warmer/colder as always. However, I think its important folks know whats on the table here. If it trends warmer, the map will shift NW if it trends colder, snow amounts will increase and the map shifts SE. I do think what I have looks good however.

There will be a video tonight around 830 pm to break all of this down.