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The 2023 Winter Outlook

Thursday, January 24, 2019

Thursday: Loosing Patience With Winter, Cold Air Not The Issue

Good morning. There comes a point when you have to look at what is actually happening in the weather vs what the models are suggesting. So far this winter, it has not wanted to snow near the big cities of the east. Rain has not been an issue and it seems that any signifigant storm system we get dumps inches of rain on us. Today is a perfect example of this.

 To make matters worse, in between these rain episodes we have had cold shots! So we have settled into the good old pattern of rain,cold,rain. It is January 24th and the clock is ticking on winter. At this point we need an historical run in February and early March (can't count on things like this) or the winter will be a bust in terms of snowfall. I think for the snow lover the best you can count on right now is one big storm before the end of the season. I would take that card in a second.

 I am still watching next week for storm development as an impressive cold outbreak hits the country. The issue is I do not think there will be enough blocking, or in better terms a mechanism in place to keep that cold air locked in ahead of a storm. Regardless, we still need to keep our eye on the Monday to Wednesday time frame.

 Looking at next week, storm or no storm, the polar vortex looks to visit..

This is extremely impressive and is the coldest air in the northern hemisphere on our side of the globe...
Temperatures will plummet to well below zero for the lakes region and the cold air will work its way to the east coast by the end of next week.

 Again folks, the cold shots have not been the issue this year! That part of my winter forecast I may get right ironically. The issue is will this cold stay locked ahead of a storm. Right now there is no signal for that.

 In many cases you look for storms on the front and back end of big cold outbreaks like this. The front end is next week where there is a shot something develops, then the back end is the following week. We will see if anything pops up. 

 Regardless, I think I made my point today. Expect nothing snow lovers and hope your surprised. 
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28 comments:

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