730 am Update: Final Forecast, Made Some Changes

12pm Video Supplement: Warm Air Winning

**Don't forget brutal arctic air rushes in Sunday night. Monday morning will be in the single digits**<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Good morning. A few changes to discuss this morning. The current data is coming in  warmer than originally projected and that will have forecast implications today. It is time to get ahead of this and update things.

Summary:

• Storm is trending warmer than thought based on current observations
• This means rain will be more of a factor vs some initial ice and snow for many in the tri-state
• Ice and snow line now will be pushed more northwest on my new map
• NW NJ to southern New England can see high ice impacts (freezing rain)
• I circled region in yellow on my new map.
• Lower snow accumulations for some compared to yesterday
• Storm starts roughly around 5-7pm today.
• snow to start for many, changing over to ice and rain (see new map)
• Still bitter cold on Monday

So lets get to this:

The Final Forecast:

Although it may seem cold out now, the models are now insisting a warmer surge moves in by this afternoon. Image below shows the model trend in surface temperatures (warmer)...

My whole concern about today was that the dense cold air would hang in tough as the storm approached. However, as recent modeling trends show above, more warm air looks to move in as storm gets underway. Notice how the air may warm above freezing even up to northern NJ. We will have to see if this actually happens.

Here is an updated model projection of the storm starting at 5 pm today ending tomorrow morning...

Heavy snowfall for the interior with that ice zone more northwest than originally thought.

Here is current model consensus for the ice zone...

A narrow but potentially high impact band of freezing rain. That spells trouble.

Stay safe out there, I will have another update this evening as storm is underway.