WINTER OUTLOOK 2023 IS NOW LIVE

The 2023 Winter Outlook

Wednesday, January 8, 2020

Wednesday: Snow Squalls Today, Big Warmth This Weekend

Good morning. We have an arctic front on our doorstep with snow squalls approaching this morning into the afternoon. 

The reason for snow squalls (brief intense bursts of snow,  like winter thunderstorms) is due to a big temperature gradient between air at the surface and the very cold air rushing in aloft...


Above is the current radar. Notice the cells over PA of heavy snow.

By mid morning to afternoon they are over our area...


For areas north of I-78 keep an eye out later this morning. These can sneak up real quick and cause whiteouts. 


Then real winter air arrives tonight with temps crashing into the teens...


Things stay chilly till Saturday and Sunday where a blast of warmth brings temps into the 60s!!!



Saturday will be the nicest day as rain moves in Sunday.


Winter then is no where to be found till at least MLK weekend in the east (maybe after). It has been a rough pattern.

There are small clues the pattern can change by end of this month but there is nothing I am jumping on at this time. There is the chance this just goes into Feb but we will see.

9 comments:

  1. Hi Willy, it's been a while, but I finally got back to the WX sites to see why the winter thus far has been more or less absent! So what's going on? Looks like the 'perfect storm', from your perspective! A strong + NAO, strong polar vortex, PNA goes negative for the rest of the month, nothing much in terms of polar stratosphere temp spikes. I see the Pacific warm water blob in the Gulf of Alaska, but it seems to have stayed just a bit too far west to draw the northern jet down over the east coast, the big dip (which ain't that big with a strong AO) seems to be closer to the Mississippi. And today it looks like the warm blob is fading anyway. The ENSO is pretty much neutral, no big drama in the Pacific. The MJO is in the Maritime, might wander into the central Pacific by month's end, but for now, nothing much. The zonal QBO is fading, looks ready to flip easterly if it hasn't already - maybe that will kick-in next month. But for now - looks to me like a series of coincidences in ocean and atmosphere global dynamics that are keeping the snow away! What are you seeing? Of course, the season is still young, who knows what the ground hog has in store for us after the Super Bowl. Remember a few years ago, the Super Bowl at MetLife Stadium, it was a fairly warm day - then right after that, winter really dug in. So, we shall see! Jim G

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