As for our current weather pattern, there is really nothing that is exciting me right now. Over the past several days models have been showing a massive winter storm for this upcoming weekend but I have not bought it.
For example, we went from seeing this epic blizzard...
I expect this still goes back and forth but the reason I am not expecting much is due to the upper air pattern. We simply do not have the major features I look for to support a snowstorm near coastal areas. What we are left with is a "thread the needle" situation where the timing of upper air disturbances has to be just right for it to snow here. I would not be betting on that.
Looking above we have a few things to note. For one there is no high pressure over Greenland. This means the flow of the jet stream will be quite fast and it all comes down to the timing of the two red circles to come together at the perfect moment to create a storm. The only thing that can help slow this down is that ridge out in the Atlantic but it needs to be sitting in the perfect spot. IF its too strong the storm cuts inland. If its too weak, it goes out to sea.
So as you can see this is a low probability to see a snowstorm this weekend. Yes it can happen but without atmospheric blocking in place I would bet against it.
For the long range there is SOME evidence the polar vortex will start to weaken and there is a chance for some winter to occur by mid February but the jury is still out.
I need to call it as I see it. I hope i am wrong.
Stay tuned.
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