We then turn our attention to a storm system that will impact the area this weekend. At this time there is a chance this can be wintery in nature for the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England. I will explain below what will make the difference between seeing rain or an old fashioned snowstorm Saturday.
First off, we have a nice cold arctic high settled in over our region currently. Temperatures will be in the 20's today then start to climb back to average by Wednesday...
Here lies our key to next weekends storm system. A low pressure system is going to develop over the mid-west and start to roll east...
Now once this storm starts to develop in the mid-west the critical part of this forecast arrives. Does this storm simply move directly east due to strong high pressure to the north blocking its northern advancement, or does some of that high pressure weaken and its allowed to pull north a little? If the latter happens we have a chance at a snowstorm if the former happens its rain.
Lets show both examples...
Example One: High pressure is strong to the north and low is forced to slide east under it.
As the storm slides east it begins to "pull down" that cold air sitting in Canada over our area, also aided by the high pressure to the north...
Example Two: the high pressure weakens allowing the storm to move more north...
In this scenario because the storm can move more north it does not "tap" the cold air and bring it as far south...
So what is influencing weather the high pressure stays strong enough you ask?
All comes down to the arrangement of the atmosphere at 18000 feet...
In the rain scenario, the high pressure weakens due to the energy from our storm interacting with energy in Canada seen below (two circles). This weakens the high pressure and pulls the storm north and also the warm air up to the east coast (red line)...
In the snowstorm scenario the opposite happens. The two pieces of energy do not interact and we have a strong confluent flow providing cold air for the storm to tap as it slides east...
I will end off with the historical analogs showing this is possible as seen by median snowfall based on past similar atmospheric setups...
I will be tracking this all week and have updates daily. Too early to speculate on what i think happens.
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