Sunday Morning Storm Update: Made Some Tweaks

Good morning. We have our first signifigant winter storm on the season knocking on our doorstep this morning. In fact, I think areas north of I-78 see a quick burst of snow later this morning. An inch or two can pile up before the changeover. The real storm then starts Monday.

My usual 7pm Update will be live tonight.

I updated my forecast to try to account for where Monday's snow band may set up. As I discussed this is extremely hard to pin point...

Updated Timeline:

• Front end burst of snow this morning for areas from I-78 north. An inch or two can pile up before a change over to ice and rain (south)
• There will then be a changeover to rain and ice and stay all snow over interior New England
• Then expect a lull in the storm tonight before part two takes over Monday morning
• This is where an impressive band of heavy snow can develop over the region
• Timing is Monday morning into early Tuesday

For the Green Zone: mostly rain some flakes at the end Monday

For the Light Blue Zone: Ice storm in PA with a quick burst of snow this morning changing to rain by this afternoon. Snow then will fall again Monday. I do not think you get into heavy band at this time but that can change.

For the 4-8" Zone: Burst of snow this morning accumulates 1-2 inches then changes to a sleet storm. Rain can also work in for areas closer to coast. Snow then returns Monday morning accumulating several inches

For the 6-12" Zone (over  NW NJ and  NE PA): This is where I am trying to pinpoint that band of heavy snow Monday. Temps will not go above freezing today and by tomorrow morning you can see potential heavy snowfall rates through the evening. This is highly hard to predict and has potential to bust.

For the 10-16" Zone: All Snow


So our storm system is currently cranking to our west. Overrunning precipitation is currently approaching the forecast area...

Temps currently are dry and cold. This means when the precipitaiton arrives in a few hours snow should break out for areas north of I-78...

I am thinking that this causes 1-2 inches of snow to fall to the nw of I-287. 

Things then change to sleet and rain...

We then get a lull in the storm tonight (still snowing over New England) and the real action potentially starts tomorrow morning as a low redevelops off the NJ coast. 

This is where an impressive almost impossible to predict band of snow develops on the back edge of this storm...

This is from Monday morning to Tuesday afternoon. I am intersted to see how tonights model runs look when it comes to handling this snow band.

If our upper level low is strong and deep enough, then this will happen. If it shifts north then NJ is taken completely out of the snow. 

Stay tuned, more to come tonight. This is still evolving.