Monday Morning: Storm Update

Good morning. A signifigant winter/ice storm is on tap for many areas tonight through tomorrow morning. I am making no changes to my forecast issued last night. Please see the region by region summary below the map. My biggest concern is for areas in NW NJ, NE PA and CT, and especially anyone above 800ft. I really think there are going to be some bigger impacts than advertised with ice accumulations. For areas closer to NYC it shouldn't be AS bad but still can get ugly tonight.  I will have a 7pm video update tonight

• Green Zone: All Rain

• Pink Zone: Period of snow and mixed precipitation Monday eve gives way to freezing rain Monday night turning to all rain by Tuesday morning. Up to 2 inches of snowfall can fall and 0.15" of ice. Some travel impacts to be expected. Areas include, Hunderton, Essex, Union, Hudson, Bergan counties in NJ

• Red Zone:  Ice storm zone. Burst of snow late Monday eve changes to all sleet then freezing rain by Monday night into Tuesday morning. I expect high impacts in this region. 2-4" of snow  Monday evening starting around 6pm followed by up to 0.4" of freezing rain in localized areas. I expect travel to be disrupted in this region Monday night and Tuesday morning. Areas in include Morris,Sussex and Warren counties in NJ

• Orange Zone: Snow changes to sleet by Tuesday morning 2-4"

• Dark Blue Zone: All Snow 3-6"

The National Weather Service is being overly conservative with this storm in my opinion and only has winter weather advisories out...

This boggles my mind for areas to the northwest (Morris County, Sussex, Warren, Northeast PA) as there should be winter storm warnings in my opinion. To the east near the city impacts are not as big a deal.

In terms of timing here is the evolution of the storm...

By 7-9 pm snow and ice mix begins to work its way into the area...

By midnight I expect all snow to breakout in areas to the northwest with freezing rain and sleet to the east...

By 3am a all out ice storm with heavy freezing rain and sleet is underway in the northwestern regions with a changeover to rain for many near the city...

By 7am ice storm is still on going in areas to the northwest at higher elevations with rain in other areas. For CT, ice storm is still in full force with freezing rain near the coast.

Storm ends by mid morning for many areas. I fear this can be worse than what public outlets are advertising right now, especially to the northwest. Although models are very bad at perdicting this, the freezing rain outputs are very concerning with up to 0.5" of accumulated ice...

If this verifies it will be no bueno for areas to the northwest and expect downed tree limbs and power outages, especially if winds pick up on Wednesday with ice on the trees.

I will have a video update out by 7pm tonight. Stay tuned!