Our storm currently is sitting off the NJ Coast and snow will start to develop over the region in the next several hours. By the early afternoon conditions should really start deteriorating and snowfall rates can be over 1" per hour. The snow then ends by later tonight. I highly recommend to not be traveling on the roads this afternoon.
As I expected, models still differ on where exactly this snow band sets up today. There are scenarios where the NYC metro actually sees the heaviest snow and to the west sees less. We are going to have to just monitor this in real time. Exciting stuff.
When it is all said and done, I really like the idea of 4-8 inches from CNJ north per my map below. As I just mentioned, areas in NE NJ including NYC in the light blue zone have a shot to get into the 4-8 inch band based on latest trends..
Looking at the latest observations, our low is currently sitting off the NJ coast at 994mb with scattered precipitation...
The precipitation/snow will really start to fill in later this morning (any sleet changes to snow) as the upper level low currently over PA catches up to the low sitting off NJ as seen below (5am to 12pm shown)...
Crazy enough, models still differ on where the heaviest banding sets up, ranging from western to eastern NJ. NYC even has a chance to get in on the heavy stuff if this is more east. In fact, in that scenario eastern NJ sees more snow than western NJ. Its all on the table today!
I currently favor the evolution of the European model for today. Below is from 7am today to 1am tomorrow. Notice where the heavy band sets up. Also notice the big band in eastern New England at the end of the storm. That will be interesting...
In terms of snowfall rates, the best tool I have is the rapid refresh short range model that shows rates can hit over 1" per hour in some spots by early afternoon...
Stay tuned, I will have updates on Twitter and at 12 pm update on the blog.
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