Been taking some time off. The mild weather pattern will give way to colder conditions by new years weekend. Then we will see if we can get a storm to develop.
Stay tuned!
Monday, December 30, 2019
Wednesday, December 25, 2019
Monday, December 23, 2019
Monday Summary: Tame Christmas Week, Some Action Possible After
Good morning. As we approach Christmas week the weather is going to stay quite tame. Temperatures will moderate and be mild overall this week. Christmas Eve and Day look to be very calm. Expect widespread 40's for highs. As we approach the New Year and beyond there are some signs the weather pattern activity picks back up again with a return to cold and potentially unsettled weather.
As we go through this week, you can see how the jet stream is allowing warmer air from the Pacific to enter the eastern United States...
Not a complete blow torch but warmer than normal.
The pattern then turns a little more favorable towards the New Year...
This looks OK to me. We have a lot of cold air focused in Alaska (record breaking actually) which is usually not a great pattern for cold in the United states. However, there appears to be potentially be enough of a connection to bring some colder and stormier weather to the eastern United States as we hit the 1st week of the year.
A storm should impact interior New England just before the New Year with mixed precipitation and potential mountain snow later this weekend...
From there is the period that is very uncertain. Things do cool down again but I do not have the confidence to take a stand yet on if I think its sustainable or if things just stay neutral for the 1st two weeks of January. I will have to hone in on this over the next few days. I will say I will not like to see a tame weather pattern continue through 1st half of January. That is not a good sign for a great winter.
Stay tuned.
As we go through this week, you can see how the jet stream is allowing warmer air from the Pacific to enter the eastern United States...
Not a complete blow torch but warmer than normal.
The pattern then turns a little more favorable towards the New Year...
This looks OK to me. We have a lot of cold air focused in Alaska (record breaking actually) which is usually not a great pattern for cold in the United states. However, there appears to be potentially be enough of a connection to bring some colder and stormier weather to the eastern United States as we hit the 1st week of the year.
A storm should impact interior New England just before the New Year with mixed precipitation and potential mountain snow later this weekend...
From there is the period that is very uncertain. Things do cool down again but I do not have the confidence to take a stand yet on if I think its sustainable or if things just stay neutral for the 1st two weeks of January. I will have to hone in on this over the next few days. I will say I will not like to see a tame weather pattern continue through 1st half of January. That is not a good sign for a great winter.
Stay tuned.
Wednesday, December 18, 2019
Wednesday Update: Focusing on This Arctic Front and Snow Squalls
Good morning. Please see my post from yesterday if you live in the higher elevations of NW NJ as I do think the wind later today will cause issues with these ice covered trees and power lines.
The other and related focus on today is this very impressive arctic front moving in this afternoon...
Watch temps crash into the lower teens and single digits tonight...
On the leading edge of this front there is good support for snow squalls (breif heavy bursts of snow, kind of like a winter thunderstorm) to move into the area this afternoon. These pop up quick and if you are caught in one it can be a brief whiteout. The reason this happens is due to the big contrast in the air mass approaching being so cold and dry causing instability...
Then the winds gusts come this evening too....
For those NW higher elevation areas stay safe.
Temps stay very cold through Thursday with highs only reaching the 20s for many areas.
The other and related focus on today is this very impressive arctic front moving in this afternoon...
Watch temps crash into the lower teens and single digits tonight...
On the leading edge of this front there is good support for snow squalls (breif heavy bursts of snow, kind of like a winter thunderstorm) to move into the area this afternoon. These pop up quick and if you are caught in one it can be a brief whiteout. The reason this happens is due to the big contrast in the air mass approaching being so cold and dry causing instability...
Then the winds gusts come this evening too....
For those NW higher elevation areas stay safe.
Temps stay very cold through Thursday with highs only reaching the 20s for many areas.
Tuesday, December 17, 2019
5pm: Power Outages Likely as Arctic Blast Arrives Tomorrow With Gusty Winds
5pm Update: Power Outages likely across NNJ as winds will pick up tomorrow and power lines and trees have 0.25 to 0.5" of ice on them. I am particularity concerned with NW NJ above 800ft. Temps really did not go above freezing today and ice really accumulated. The snow part of my forecast may have busted but this ice is living up to the hype and was always my biggest concern if you have been following last few days.
Here are some pics taken this evening from the Morristown area. Add some gusty winds tomorrow with bitter cold temps and snow squalls moving in from an approaching arctic front and you get my point...
Temps stay below freezing tonight and tomorrow and really plummet by tomorrow night. We can also see snow squalls tomorrow afternoon as front moves through. Temps drop to low to mid teens tomorow night and low 20s for highs Thursday.
7am Update: Ice on All Elevated Surfaces, Freezing Rain Continues
Morning. The snow piece of this forecast did not work out but we sure have ice out there. I have seen reports of around a quarter inch of freezing rain accumulation in Sussex NJ and Somerset NJ so far.
This was taken in Morristown at 630am...
Temperatures are currently below freezing for most of NNJ PA and CT with moderate freezing rain still falling...
I haven't gotten any reports but I would assume the ice is pretty bad up in the NW counties of NJ.
The roads may seem fine but there are def slick spots and black ice out there. Remember it is below freezing with freezing rain still falling. This will last till about mid afternoon.
I am then concerned about power outages tonight as temps plummet and winds pick up with 0.25" ice on trees and power lines.
We will wrap this up later tonight and look at upcoming pattern for Christmas.
This was taken in Morristown at 630am...
Temperatures are currently below freezing for most of NNJ PA and CT with moderate freezing rain still falling...
I haven't gotten any reports but I would assume the ice is pretty bad up in the NW counties of NJ.
The roads may seem fine but there are def slick spots and black ice out there. Remember it is below freezing with freezing rain still falling. This will last till about mid afternoon.
I am then concerned about power outages tonight as temps plummet and winds pick up with 0.25" ice on trees and power lines.
We will wrap this up later tonight and look at upcoming pattern for Christmas.
Monday, December 16, 2019
6pm Video Update: Major Ice Storm Tonight for areas to the NW
Good evening. My forecast is on track. The video below gives the play by play. I really expect a high impact freezing rain event for areas in Morris,Sussex,Warren counties in NJ and across NE PA and CT. This is a major winter storm for those areas. For other areas in NJ and near the city you will see some ice tonight but temperatures will go above freezing by tomorrow morning so that should help damper impacts. Snow and ice will begin to break out soon over the Tri-State. A few quick inches can pile up across Northern NNJ before it changes to ice after midnight.
My map sums it up well. The red zone is my biggest area of concern:
Here is my play by play video (3 min long):
My map sums it up well. The red zone is my biggest area of concern:
Here is my play by play video (3 min long):
Monday Morning: Storm Update
Good morning. A signifigant winter/ice storm is on tap for many areas tonight through tomorrow morning. I am making no changes to my forecast issued last night. Please see the region by region summary below the map. My biggest concern is for areas in NW NJ, NE PA and CT, and especially anyone above 800ft. I really think there are going to be some bigger impacts than advertised with ice accumulations. For areas closer to NYC it shouldn't be AS bad but still can get ugly tonight. I will have a 7pm video update tonight
- Green Zone: All Rain
- Pink Zone: Period of snow and mixed precipitation Monday eve gives way to freezing rain Monday night turning to all rain by Tuesday morning. Up to 2 inches of snowfall can fall and 0.15" of ice. Some travel impacts to be expected. Areas include, Hunderton, Essex, Union, Hudson, Bergan counties in NJ
- Red Zone: Ice storm zone. Burst of snow late Monday eve changes to all sleet then freezing rain by Monday night into Tuesday morning. I expect high impacts in this region. 2-4" of snow Monday evening starting around 6pm followed by up to 0.4" of freezing rain in localized areas. I expect travel to be disrupted in this region Monday night and Tuesday morning. Areas in include Morris,Sussex and Warren counties in NJ
- Orange Zone: Snow changes to sleet by Tuesday morning 2-4"
- Dark Blue Zone: All Snow 3-6"
The National Weather Service is being overly conservative with this storm in my opinion and only has winter weather advisories out...
This boggles my mind for areas to the northwest (Morris County, Sussex, Warren, Northeast PA) as there should be winter storm warnings in my opinion. To the east near the city impacts are not as big a deal.
In terms of timing here is the evolution of the storm...
By 7-9 pm snow and ice mix begins to work its way into the area...
By midnight I expect all snow to breakout in areas to the northwest with freezing rain and sleet to the east...
By 3am a all out ice storm with heavy freezing rain and sleet is underway in the northwestern regions with a changeover to rain for many near the city...
By 7am ice storm is still on going in areas to the northwest at higher elevations with rain in other areas. For CT, ice storm is still in full force with freezing rain near the coast.
Storm ends by mid morning for many areas. I fear this can be worse than what public outlets are advertising right now, especially to the northwest. Although models are very bad at perdicting this, the freezing rain outputs are very concerning with up to 0.5" of accumulated ice...
If this verifies it will be no bueno for areas to the northwest and expect downed tree limbs and power outages, especially if winds pick up on Wednesday with ice on the trees.
I will have a video update out by 7pm tonight. Stay tuned!
Sunday, December 15, 2019
Sunday Eve: The Updated Winter Storm Forecast
Below is my updated forecast. More details will be live tomorrow first thing in the morning. Ice storms are EXTREMELY hard to nail down as the freezing rain usually always falls in a narrow band. I will have to keep honing in on this next 24 hours. I do not expect any Major travel impacts tomorrow except out in PA. The main period for most is Monday night into Tuesday morning.
For now, here is a summary:
For now, here is a summary:
- Green Zone: All Rain
- Pink Zone: Period of snow and mixed precipitation Monday eve gives way to freezing rain Monday night turning to all rain by Tuesday morning. Up to 2 inches of snowfall can fall and 0.15" of ice
- Red Zone: Ice storm zone. Burst of snow late Monday eve changes to all sleet then freezing rain by Monday night into Tuesday morning. I expect high impacts in this region. 2-4" of snow with up to 0.4" of freezing rain in localized areas.
- Orange Zone: Snow changes to sleet by Tuesday morning 2-4"
- Dark Blue Zone: All Snow
More first thing in the morning.
Saturday, December 14, 2019
Saturday Night: Preliminary Storm Forecast for Monday Afternoon-Tuesday Morning
A winter storm will impact the region Monday late afternoon into Tuesday morning. This will be a mixed bag of precipitation with potential signifigant ice impacts for areas to the NW of I-95. A lot can still change with this system but below is how I see things playing out.
Here is my impact map. I will update this daily up to the event:
We have a complicated situation where cold air will hold at the surface but warm air will work in aloft. This means we will have an initial burst of snow late Monday afternoon which will change over to rain and all freezing rain for the red zone.
Here is how I see it playing out:
Here is my impact map. I will update this daily up to the event:
We have a complicated situation where cold air will hold at the surface but warm air will work in aloft. This means we will have an initial burst of snow late Monday afternoon which will change over to rain and all freezing rain for the red zone.
Here is how I see it playing out:
- Blue Zone: Mostly snow Monday night several inches possible
- Red Zone: Significant icing event possible with a few inches of snow Monday late afternoon changing to all freezing rain Monday night. We may see up to 0.5" of ice in the worst case scenario.
- Pink Zone: Some snow and mixed precipitation to start Monday late afternoon changing to some freezing rain but then all rain by early Tuesday. Some ice accumulations are possible
- Green Zone: Mostly Rain
Here is the situation. All images are from European model because it has the best handle on this imo.
A cold high pressure will be to the north of our area on Monday funneling in very cold air at the surface...
A cold high pressure will be to the north of our area on Monday funneling in very cold air at the surface...
The storm system then approaches from the southwest. It will initially be cold enough in all levels of the atmosphere for snow to breakout for a few hours in northern zones late Monday afternoon...
Sleet and some freezing rain will move into areas more south.
Then things can get very hazardous as warm air moves in aloft but cold air hangs tight at the surface for areas to the NW of I-95 by late Monday night .This is due to that cold high still supporting winds from the northeast at the surface...
Surface temps at the same time...
This can cause heavy freezing rain to breakout and really impact the dark red zone from my impact map. I expect areas near coasts, central NJ and the Big cities to not see much impacts from this however.
The historical analogs support freezing rain as seen by orange colors....
Stay tuned, a lot can change. Next update tomorrow morning.
Saturday: No Changes, Maps Out This Weekend With Impacts
Will have snow and ice issues Monday night into Tuesday. Blog yesterday sums it up. Will have more details by tonight or tomorrow morning.
Friday, December 13, 2019
Friday: Next Week's Storm Mixed Bag, Pattern Ripe Through Christmas
Good morning. We got a rain storm on tap Saturday followed by a storm with front end snow and ice Monday night changing to rain on Tuesday. All snow will fall over interior northern New England. In the wake of all this the weather pattern then becomes very supportive for winter weather through Christmas.
Starting off, heavy rains move in tonight through tomorrow...
Much colder winter air then arrives for Sunday through early next week.
A storm system approaches from the west on Monday night into Tuesday. An initial burst of snow could break out followed by a period of ice and freezing rain then plain rain from NNJ northward...
My concern with this system is that low level cold air holds on longer than modeled causing issues with ice for NW NJ into PA and southern New England. The European is the coldest model seen above and that is why I am showing it. There are other models that are warmer. For any areas near coasts or central and southern NJ this is all rain.
These types of scenarios can surprise with more front end precipitation which can fall more frozen than projected. I do not expect a snowstorm but as I said the icing for northern areas is a concern. I will be following this closely next few days. For northern New England ski areas this is all snow.
Then the pattern really looks promising through Christmas. We have high latitude blocking that is expected to develop over Greenland. Anytime this happens it forces energy to slow down and consolidate in the eastern 1/3 of the country. Cold air is usually available as well. This means we have a shot to see a storm system around Christmas this year!
For winter weather lovers this is the pattern you want to see with all that red or high pressure over Greenland.
Stay tuned, things may get active.
Starting off, heavy rains move in tonight through tomorrow...
Much colder winter air then arrives for Sunday through early next week.
A storm system approaches from the west on Monday night into Tuesday. An initial burst of snow could break out followed by a period of ice and freezing rain then plain rain from NNJ northward...
My concern with this system is that low level cold air holds on longer than modeled causing issues with ice for NW NJ into PA and southern New England. The European is the coldest model seen above and that is why I am showing it. There are other models that are warmer. For any areas near coasts or central and southern NJ this is all rain.
These types of scenarios can surprise with more front end precipitation which can fall more frozen than projected. I do not expect a snowstorm but as I said the icing for northern areas is a concern. I will be following this closely next few days. For northern New England ski areas this is all snow.
Then the pattern really looks promising through Christmas. We have high latitude blocking that is expected to develop over Greenland. Anytime this happens it forces energy to slow down and consolidate in the eastern 1/3 of the country. Cold air is usually available as well. This means we have a shot to see a storm system around Christmas this year!
For winter weather lovers this is the pattern you want to see with all that red or high pressure over Greenland.
Stay tuned, things may get active.
Thursday, December 12, 2019
Thursday: Snow, Ice, or Rain Next Week?
The storm for next week is still up in the air. Overall I think anyone I95 or south is rain or maybe some ice and rain. For areas to NW of I95 my bigger concern is ice right now as models do want to track this storm on a track that allows warm air to work in aloft.
Over the next 24 hrs I should get a better idea if this will be a winter threat or not. All rain is on the table as well. Thus, I am not confident to make any calls at this time.
Stay tuned.
Over the next 24 hrs I should get a better idea if this will be a winter threat or not. All rain is on the table as well. Thus, I am not confident to make any calls at this time.
Stay tuned.
Wednesday, December 11, 2019
Wednesday Morning: Snow Winding Down, Storm Next Week
Forecast worked out well. We got 1" in Morristown and 2.5" above 800ft as of 7am. We will look at final totals later today.
My attention then turns to a potential winter storm for Tuesday of next week. This threat will be a NW of I-95 winter event and the jury is still out on how far west this storm goes. Ice may be an issue.
I am going to be taking a close look at this the next two days and try to hone in on what I think will happen.
The winter storm banner has been updated.
My attention then turns to a potential winter storm for Tuesday of next week. This threat will be a NW of I-95 winter event and the jury is still out on how far west this storm goes. Ice may be an issue.
I am going to be taking a close look at this the next two days and try to hone in on what I think will happen.
The winter storm banner has been updated.
Tuesday, December 10, 2019
Tuesday: Forecast for Tonight-Tomorrow Morning
Good morning. A light snowfall will move through the region after an initial round of rain later tonight. We then have more rain on tap this weekend. As we head into the middle of next week, I have my eye on a potential bigger storm that could be wintery in nature. Stay tuned on that one.
Here is my forecast. This will be nothing major and really just a nuance event. I do not expect much with road impacts unless you are in the CT region or higher elevations of NW NJ or NE PA. Otherwise any accumulations are on grassy surfaces.
Snow moves in very early Wednesday morning on the front...
Its done by mid morning to early afternoon for eastern New England...
More rain in its wake this weekend then we turn to the middle of next week for a potential winter storm. I will discuss this more as the week progresses.
Here is my forecast. This will be nothing major and really just a nuance event. I do not expect much with road impacts unless you are in the CT region or higher elevations of NW NJ or NE PA. Otherwise any accumulations are on grassy surfaces.
Snow moves in very early Wednesday morning on the front...
Its done by mid morning to early afternoon for eastern New England...
More rain in its wake this weekend then we turn to the middle of next week for a potential winter storm. I will discuss this more as the week progresses.
Sunday, December 8, 2019
Sunday Night Note: Light Snowfall Wednesday Morning
Good evening. I will go into more detail tomorrow, but a light snowfall is looking likely for the area on early Wednesday morning. A frontal system moves through tomorrow afternoon into Tuesday bringing with it some heavy rain. In the wake of the front a wave with snow will develop Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. I expect 1-2 inches over the forecast area with 3-4" in the higher elevations of NW NJ.
Rain comes through tomorrow night...
Arctic air then moves in behind the rain and a wave develops along the frontal boundary by late Tuesday night...
Snow breaks out and ends before noon for most areas Wednesday.
Accumulations shown by the European model make sense to me...
Id expect some higher amounts in areas of NW PA and NW NJ above 800ft.
In the wake of this we will the have some more wet weather to potential deal with but the jury is still out. I will go more into this over the week and speculate on what Christmas may look like this year.
More tomorrow.
Rain comes through tomorrow night...
Arctic air then moves in behind the rain and a wave develops along the frontal boundary by late Tuesday night...
Snow breaks out and ends before noon for most areas Wednesday.
Accumulations shown by the European model make sense to me...
In the wake of this we will the have some more wet weather to potential deal with but the jury is still out. I will go more into this over the week and speculate on what Christmas may look like this year.
More tomorrow.
Saturday, December 7, 2019
Sat: Could See Some Snow This Week
Update out at 7pm Sunday night. Wednesday Is the target day.
Jury still out...more details by tomorrow.
Jury still out...more details by tomorrow.
Wednesday, December 4, 2019
Wednesday: Final Totals Are In
Here are final totals
Vs my final forecast from Sat Night
And here was initial Forecast put out friday morning...
That's all for now.
Vs my final forecast from Sat Night
And here was initial Forecast put out friday morning...
That's all for now.
Tuesday, December 3, 2019
Monday Morning: Snowfall Verification
Here are latest snowfall totals from the storm. Note it is still snowing in eastern New England and Mane and will pile up several more inches...
vs. my Final Forecast....
As you can see forecast did ok up in New England and even down to the coast of CT. Where I didn't get it right was for Central NJ and Western PA around Allentown into western NJ where totals were too high. We will wait for the snow to end later today to grade eastern New England. This actually didn't turn out as bad as I thought yesterday given how difficult this forecast was.
Let me know your thoughts.
Here was the evolution of my forecasts from Thursday to Saturday night...
Stay tuned I will be discussing the upcoming December weather pattern over the next few days.
vs. my Final Forecast....
As you can see forecast did ok up in New England and even down to the coast of CT. Where I didn't get it right was for Central NJ and Western PA around Allentown into western NJ where totals were too high. We will wait for the snow to end later today to grade eastern New England. This actually didn't turn out as bad as I thought yesterday given how difficult this forecast was.
Let me know your thoughts.
Here was the evolution of my forecasts from Thursday to Saturday night...
Stay tuned I will be discussing the upcoming December weather pattern over the next few days.
Monday, December 2, 2019
6pm Update: It Was Boom or Bust Today
Good evening and thanks for all the follows today. Makes this hobby much more fun when there is a following behind me. So overall the forecast worked out really well in some areas and not so good in other (mainly western NJ near I-78). I am hearing reports of at least a foot of snow in areas of Sussex county and we have about 5 inches here in Morristown, NJ. Tomorrow morning we will see the final totals and compare to the forecast.
To be honest, this was hardest storm I ever had to predict (really) due to the fact all the snowfall for our area depended on a very small scale but intense band of snow that was projected to develop. Our models just are not good enough yet to nail down exact placement. So due to this, I had to try to use experience and historical analogs.
Tomorrow we will see how the entire forecast did when the totals are tallied up. I would say right now I am tracking to get a C on this. There is no such thing as an A for effort.
So as of 6 pm we have snow in many areas still...
These smaller bands will rotate down into the forecast area through at least 11pm. Some areas can pick up another 1-3 inches from these. Currently the most impressive banding is over Sussex NJ and near New Brunswick.
Short term models show the storm over the next 5 hours moving those bands through. Notice by tomorrow morning eastern New England is getting hit with impressive snowfall. Another 3-6 will pile up there...
The storm will speed up once our upper low moves just offshore allowing surface low to jump towards Maine in a few hours. Currently it is almost there...
Until then periods of snow will still be in the region.
Stay tuned guys, hope you all got some good info over the past few days.
To be honest, this was hardest storm I ever had to predict (really) due to the fact all the snowfall for our area depended on a very small scale but intense band of snow that was projected to develop. Our models just are not good enough yet to nail down exact placement. So due to this, I had to try to use experience and historical analogs.
Tomorrow we will see how the entire forecast did when the totals are tallied up. I would say right now I am tracking to get a C on this. There is no such thing as an A for effort.
So as of 6 pm we have snow in many areas still...
These smaller bands will rotate down into the forecast area through at least 11pm. Some areas can pick up another 1-3 inches from these. Currently the most impressive banding is over Sussex NJ and near New Brunswick.
Short term models show the storm over the next 5 hours moving those bands through. Notice by tomorrow morning eastern New England is getting hit with impressive snowfall. Another 3-6 will pile up there...
The storm will speed up once our upper low moves just offshore allowing surface low to jump towards Maine in a few hours. Currently it is almost there...
Until then periods of snow will still be in the region.
Stay tuned guys, hope you all got some good info over the past few days.
12pm Update: On Track, Heavy Snow Incoming
1PM Note: Need to get off the roads very soon in NNJ. Heavy snowfall has engulfed the entire area and temps have dropped. This is 100% on schedule.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Storm is on track. Our band of moderate to heavy snow has just developed on schedule and travel conditions will significantly deteriorate through the afternoon. I am impressed with the moisture fetch coming in off the Atlantic.
The storm lasts till tonight and the biggest surprise can be higher totals across NE NJ this afternoon. Areas near Phili are in the clear this is pretty much Princeton north for impacts today. I will check in again around 6pm with updates.
The video below gives a 1 min summary:
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Storm is on track. Our band of moderate to heavy snow has just developed on schedule and travel conditions will significantly deteriorate through the afternoon. I am impressed with the moisture fetch coming in off the Atlantic.
The storm lasts till tonight and the biggest surprise can be higher totals across NE NJ this afternoon. Areas near Phili are in the clear this is pretty much Princeton north for impacts today. I will check in again around 6pm with updates.
The video below gives a 1 min summary:
Updated radar below as of 12:20 pm shows very heavy snow approaching due to a moisture fetch off the Atlantic ocean...
Monday Morning 6am Update: No Changes
Good morning. I have made no adjustments to my forecast from last night. I will have a 12pm update to discuss how things are evolving in real time.
Our storm currently is sitting off the NJ Coast and snow will start to develop over the region in the next several hours. By the early afternoon conditions should really start deteriorating and snowfall rates can be over 1" per hour. The snow then ends by later tonight. I highly recommend to not be traveling on the roads this afternoon.
As I expected, models still differ on where exactly this snow band sets up today. There are scenarios where the NYC metro actually sees the heaviest snow and to the west sees less. We are going to have to just monitor this in real time. Exciting stuff.
When it is all said and done, I really like the idea of 4-8 inches from CNJ north per my map below. As I just mentioned, areas in NE NJ including NYC in the light blue zone have a shot to get into the 4-8 inch band based on latest trends..
Looking at the latest observations, our low is currently sitting off the NJ coast at 994mb with scattered precipitation...
The precipitation/snow will really start to fill in later this morning (any sleet changes to snow) as the upper level low currently over PA catches up to the low sitting off NJ as seen below (5am to 12pm shown)...
Crazy enough, models still differ on where the heaviest banding sets up, ranging from western to eastern NJ. NYC even has a chance to get in on the heavy stuff if this is more east. In fact, in that scenario eastern NJ sees more snow than western NJ. Its all on the table today!
I currently favor the evolution of the European model for today. Below is from 7am today to 1am tomorrow. Notice where the heavy band sets up. Also notice the big band in eastern New England at the end of the storm. That will be interesting...
In terms of snowfall rates, the best tool I have is the rapid refresh short range model that shows rates can hit over 1" per hour in some spots by early afternoon...
Stay tuned, I will have updates on Twitter and at 12 pm update on the blog.
Our storm currently is sitting off the NJ Coast and snow will start to develop over the region in the next several hours. By the early afternoon conditions should really start deteriorating and snowfall rates can be over 1" per hour. The snow then ends by later tonight. I highly recommend to not be traveling on the roads this afternoon.
As I expected, models still differ on where exactly this snow band sets up today. There are scenarios where the NYC metro actually sees the heaviest snow and to the west sees less. We are going to have to just monitor this in real time. Exciting stuff.
When it is all said and done, I really like the idea of 4-8 inches from CNJ north per my map below. As I just mentioned, areas in NE NJ including NYC in the light blue zone have a shot to get into the 4-8 inch band based on latest trends..
Looking at the latest observations, our low is currently sitting off the NJ coast at 994mb with scattered precipitation...
The precipitation/snow will really start to fill in later this morning (any sleet changes to snow) as the upper level low currently over PA catches up to the low sitting off NJ as seen below (5am to 12pm shown)...
Crazy enough, models still differ on where the heaviest banding sets up, ranging from western to eastern NJ. NYC even has a chance to get in on the heavy stuff if this is more east. In fact, in that scenario eastern NJ sees more snow than western NJ. Its all on the table today!
I currently favor the evolution of the European model for today. Below is from 7am today to 1am tomorrow. Notice where the heavy band sets up. Also notice the big band in eastern New England at the end of the storm. That will be interesting...
In terms of snowfall rates, the best tool I have is the rapid refresh short range model that shows rates can hit over 1" per hour in some spots by early afternoon...
Stay tuned, I will have updates on Twitter and at 12 pm update on the blog.
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