Thursday Update: Storm Threat Stays South Next Week, Major Snows for NC/VA

Good morning. The storm threat that has been discussed for early next week will stay south. It appeared there was room for the upper air pattern to change enough for this to nudge north but I am confident that will not occur at this time. Parts of NC and VA will potentially see an historic snowstorm with this.

 We will then be left with chilly December weather through early next week. Followed by milder weather towards the end of next week through the weekend. Our next period for winter weather looks to be from December 17th onward. 

Here is the latest for Monday's storm threat...

Way south as you can see. Why is this projection occurring? It comes down to the upper atmosphere and what dictates how high pressure forms at the surface....

Looking above you can see the jet streams of the atmosphere. The area I circled shows two jet streams coming together over the Northeast known as a confluence zone. When this occurs, it tends to mean sinking air or high pressure down at the surface. Given the fact that this confluence zone is too far south, it means the HP is too far south and acts to squash the storm as seen below...

Notice the high pressure center in PA squashing the storm. Earlier in the week I thought the confluence zone could shift more north meaning that same high pressure would be up in southern Canada thus allowing a more northern movement of the storm. That now will not occur.

This is a great example of how hard it is to get a big snowstorm. The ingredients needs to be in place perfectly.

However, in parts of NC and southern VA, this will be a major and possibly historic snowstorm....

This is very interesting and I will be keeping an eye on this for my friends down in the Charlotte area.


December will deliver for snow lovers in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in my opinion. Just be patient, the pattern will be developing. More to come.