Friday: Where is Winter?

I am introducing my new Winter Storm Outlook. On the header of this blog in white text. I will update this message on a weekly basis to give an outlook for the chance at future winter storms. The first line will discuss the probability of the threat and the second the time period I am focusing on.

Threat levels will be:

Low
Low to Moderate
Moderate
Moderate to High
High
Imminent 

As a start, first period to watch is middle of the first week of January

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Good morning, brief post today as I will be elaborating on this more on the days to come. 

So far it has been a brutal December for winter weather lovers. We have went from periods of chilly weather to rain back to chilly weather vice versa.

Will the pattern ever flip to cold and snowy?

The models say so...

My  January forecast analogs say so...

The strasophere says so...

But despite all these STRONG factors, we still see rain outside our windows. And will see MORE rain through the New Year.

So whats the verdict? We need to be patient. As crazy as I might sound, if the factors are there the pattern should eventually flip. Thus, I am not throwing in the towel on winter because the data will not let me. 

Now if we get to the end of Jan and nothing has happened then this will be a different conversation.

Thats all for now. Stay tuned!