Sunday Note: Aloha From Hawaii, Tracking a Winter Threat

Just arrived in Hawaii for my Honeymoon. Its currently 1030pm here and 330am east coast time. I wanted to drop a quick note to wet the appetite for what is on tap weather wise the next 10 days.

In Summary:

• Colder weather returns this week

• The snow threat for the 4th I mentioned looks like it will not amplify enough to impact the area

• The 9th/10th threat is still very alive for a larger winter storm with the main target potentially being the Mid-Atlantic from Balt/Wash to Southern New England

• The talk of a mid December warm up is overdone in my opinion
• My forecast calls for a very quick pause around mid month followed by an active end to December

Starting off, cold air moves in this week...

By next weekend the atmospheric setup favors potential winter storm development along the Mid-Atlantic coast...

Looking above I like what I see with placement of western ridge, low pressure area near eastern Canada and the active southern jet.

Models are going back and forth on how far north/south this storm gets. Below is latest GFS model. If I had to speculate I think this isn't a bad placement for this storm. Some models are keeping it more south..

At this time a storm will form its just a matter of the track. If things pan out like I think they might we will have a signifigant storm on our hands. I of course will still be in Hawaii

From here we move to what can potentially be a little bit of a mild period for mid month. This I believe will be short lived however. 

My December forecast calls for an active east coast storm track as seen below...

If that storm on the 9th/10th pans out it would be a great start to backup this forecast. 

More on Monday.