WINTER OUTLOOK 2023 IS NOW LIVE
Thursday: Hunting for Next Storm
Good morning. Snow has been in no shortage this November. Our region got the first significant snowfall two weeks back and the Mountains of New England got up to two feet in some areas over last two days.
So whats next? When is the next shot at snow for our area? I got my eyes on two periods, December 4/5 and December 9th/10th. The main target is the 9th/10th.
November so far is shaping up very similar to what my Forecast maps projected...
Actual temps...
My Forecast based on analogs...
In case anyone is wondering here is my December forecast....
We will see how this plays out. My forecast calls for a very active storm track from the gulf to the Northeast.
Moving on, lets take a look at storm threats....
Starting off, things warm up this weekend as rain moves through the Northeast Saturday...
Cold air will then return in this storms wake for early next week. Models have been hinting at a wave of energy that can develop by mid week...
If this sharpens up more than shown, it will cause a low pressure center to move through the region causing light to moderate snow. Something to watch for the Wednesday time frame.
Moving on, cold air stays in place for the rest of the week ahead of what might be a bigger storm threat for later next weekend...
The map above shows the setup for 10 days from now. Keep in mind this is the long range but there are some variables taking shape. What you are seeing in a lot of energy entering the pattern and tapping into gulf moisture. Given the fact there is blocking in place, cold air could stay locked in ahead of this moisture causing a big storm to develop for late next weekend/early next week.
Right now models are hinting this can happen at the surface...
Something to keep an eye on for sure! I will be away in Hawaii so that will increase the chances of this happening.
Stay tuned. We have a lot of active weather the next two weeks.
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