Wednesday Update: More Unsettled Weather, Some Flakes?

Good morning. We will have a short break from the rain today and Thursday, but the unsettled weather then returns on Friday as a coastal low develops...

This will produce rain for most Friday with the Mountain snow to start up in New England. Expect a few inches possible at the highest peaks before it changes over.

Then the big cold shot comes for the weekend...

It will feel very cold and winter like this weekend with temperatures ranging in upper 30s to mid 40's for highs with many locations below freezing for lows  (including parts of NJ). This will be a news making outbreak. Here are Saturday's highs...

Then things get interesting as a storm will try to develop on the tail of this cold air for early next week. This is a period I have been watching closely over the last several days. At this time it appears to me there is a shot at an interior (mountain favored) snowstorm Tuesday into Wednesday of next week.

There is a big spread of model solutions for this. The GFS shows best what I think may occur...

The European is a warm washout...

The canadian is too aggressive with the cold air holding too strong in my opinion...don't get too excited here snow lovers...

Why such the spread? It all comes down to how the jet stream is being handled.

The coldest solution the Canadian gets the cold northern jet more involved and keeps the  southern energy from amplifying too early...

The Euro couldn't be more opposite with the northern jet being cut off to the north (blue separated in Canada) allowing the southern jet to amplify early and draw in warm air (red creeping in on east coast)...

We couldn't have more opposite solutions here. It is likely that both are overdoing their solutions here. 

At this time I would favor the Ski areas to see an accumulating snow early next week with other locations in the interior seeing some snowfall to start. For areas closer to the coast I can not rule out seeing your first snowflakes but I am leaning more towards the interior solution at this time.

More to come.