Monday Pattern Update: Mild then Active End to December

Good morning. What a storm they had down south in NC and VA. I saw some reports close to two feet. That makes this an historic storm for that area. 

We are about to enter a break in the weather as mild conditions will work their way into the area by the end of this week. The mild period should last 1-2 weeks. There is then evidence cold and stormy weather returns in time for Christmas well into the new year. This is supported by the projection that the polar vortex will be weakening over the next few weeks, eventually allowing intrusions of arctic air to move into our area.

Things stay on the colder side for most of this week then the start our our mild period will get kicked off by a rainstorm on Saturday...

The mild air is being caused by unfavorable convection or thunderstorm placement in the Indian ocean. The placement of this convection currently promotes this type of pattern based on the Madden Julian Oscillation...

Current models show similar for the period starting the 14th to 20th...

The issue is the trough over the gulf of Alaska causes warm pacific air to flood the country.

This pattern I believe will be short lived however as cold and stormy conditions should return by around the 20th-24th. The current pressure/stress on the stratosphere supports this forecast...

As a rule of thumb, when the stratosphere warms, its usually a 2 to 3 week lag to when we see the effects on our weather pattern. In this case, the weakening and displacement of the polar vortex would support arctic outbreaks as we get towards the end of December.

Bottom line: 

Do not be fooled by the milder weather that will enter the region towards the end of this week (just in time for my return from Hawaii). It will only last 1-2 weeks and by the time Christmas rolls around I think we see winter come back strong. One can only hope this means we get a shot at a white Christmas. 

Stay tuned.