Friday Night Video Discussion: Irma Making a Beeline Towards Florida
My latest video discussion breaks down what to expect for this historical and massively destructive Hurricane. The power of this storm truly is remarkable.
Willy, looks like your prediction of an Irma track just out to sea from the east coast didn't hold up, the consensus track now looks just inside the west coast. BUT, you don't lose any forecasting points with this one, all bets were called off. As you said, this one is an incredibly big and powerful storm, something that the models have hardly seen before, one that starts creating some of its own unique dynamics. E.g., the GFS problem in coming in too low on pressure. Gonna need to write a check or do a PayPal to one of the domestic relief agencies, about all I can do.
I see that the GFS currently has Jose staying alive and threatening Cape Cod and New England! The Euro also seems to hint at that. But yea, I know, that situation is past the 7 day window, well into wx fantasy land. Still, given how Irma is forecast to dissipate inland and not curve east as in earlier runs, maybe the upper air dynamics will keep Jose in the vicinity for a while. The question is whether the ocean and lower-level conditions can sustain a tropical storm at the higher latitudes. It might be another thing to keep an eye on, as if Harvey and Irma weren't enough! Jim G
Jim- just noticed you left a note here. Im thinking Jose stays out to sea due to a shortwave trough working its way into the flow from the polar jet.It def will linger however for a long time which leaves room for models to trend strong with ridging which could tuck this into the coast. The water near the eastern seaboard is warm enough to not allow it to weaken much and if that ridge builds in overhead there may not be much sheer in its vicinity. We will see, will be interesting to track for sure.
Willy, looks like your prediction of an Irma track just out to sea from the east coast didn't hold up, the consensus track now looks just inside the west coast. BUT, you don't lose any forecasting points with this one, all bets were called off. As you said, this one is an incredibly big and powerful storm, something that the models have hardly seen before, one that starts creating some of its own unique dynamics. E.g., the GFS problem in coming in too low on pressure. Gonna need to write a check or do a PayPal to one of the domestic relief agencies, about all I can do.
ReplyDeleteI see that the GFS currently has Jose staying alive and threatening Cape Cod and New England! The Euro also seems to hint at that. But yea, I know, that situation is past the 7 day window, well into wx fantasy land. Still, given how Irma is forecast to dissipate inland and not curve east as in earlier runs, maybe the upper air dynamics will keep Jose in the vicinity for a while. The question is whether the ocean and lower-level conditions can sustain a tropical storm at the higher latitudes. It might be another thing to keep an eye on, as if Harvey and Irma weren't enough! Jim G
Jim- just noticed you left a note here. Im thinking Jose stays out to sea due to a shortwave trough working its way into the flow from the polar jet.It def will linger however for a long time which leaves room for models to trend strong with ridging which could tuck this into the coast. The water near the eastern seaboard is warm enough to not allow it to weaken much and if that ridge builds in overhead there may not be much sheer in its vicinity. We will see, will be interesting to track for sure.
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