The storm is really not weakening at all and maintains a scary structure as seen above. Current winds are at 160mph+. I do not see too much of a weakening trend in its future here. The water is too warm and the upper atmosphere is favorable.
I have made adjustments to my track. Here is my new map...
Notice the shift I made west. Although we have data indicating this can still be on the eastern side (edge of my red cone) the observations I am seeing back up the western models. The National Hurricane center is similar...
This was more in line with my original track but I think it is now wrong. The next image shows the storm positions vs the american models projections over the last few days....
Notice all the lines are basically north of the actual storm positions. This is showing us that the American model has been too far north with its projections so far. The result of this was an earlier turn in the Hurricane hence the more eastern track. If this trend continues it is a warning sign that the American model is making an error.
The European and British models have been more west and have held their ground. The next image shows the European models ensemble system track...
Taking a closer look at impacts, here are projected sustained wind speeds at landfall. I warn we need to still wait 24 hrs to know the exact magnitude of strength but regardless it will be a powerful blow...
Image below shows landfall early Sunday morning with sustained winds of around 130 mph for the Keys into Southern FL. Just a devastating scenario.
The storm will weaken as it travels up Florida but not fast enough for the whole central and southern part of the state. Below shows the wind field as storm moves up coast...
I can not stress enough how impact this Hurricane will be. Today is critical for watching things evolve and lock in on the exact impact zones. I am interested to see how strong this gets once it starts its right turn towards Florida.
Special video breakdown tonight at 830 pm. Stay tuned.
Willy, I find it interesting how much wiggle there still is between models and between model runs at this late stage of Irma's Florida approach. I mean, we're now within 96 hours of the most critical period, but there are still track shifts of 50 miles or so, and we're still not clear if the storm goes inland into central Georgia or threatens the Georgia and South Carolina coast. Just from a rough sense of physics, I suspect that part of this higher level of uncertainty stems from the fact that Irma is such a high-energy phenomenon. I wonder if any physicists have estimated just how many joules (or whatever energy measure would apply) are contained in Irma, versus your garden variety Cat 1 or 2 storm (or a big snowstorm for that matter -- even if thermal temps are relatively low in a blizzard, there's still a lot of energy involved). Or versus an atomic bomb -- I know that sounds pretty weird, but after looking at the photos of St. Martins after Irma, maybe it isn't. Hoping for the best for everyone in Florida and Georgia and SC (and those still recovering from Harvey in Texas and Louisiana). This is going to be a year for the books, in terms of Atlantic hurricanes. Jim G
ReplyDeleteInteresting points made Jim.
DeleteI sometimes wonder what life was like when we had zero ability to predict major weather events like this. Hopefully the south Floridians evacuate or hunker down in safe infrastructures.
I was actually thinking the same thing yesterday Jim. These storms or this one in particular is so powerful. We already know it creates its own atmosphere, so whos to say how the models will really handle this properly, especially as it makes it final turn into Florida. And there are studies with the amount of energy these storms produce. I saw a post earlier that said IRMA has the power of 112 terajoules! The energy trumps one atomic bomb. This is going to be a rough storm to say the least. A weekend of tracking ahead!
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