Now compare that to Maria which is a real problem right now as it barrels towards Puerto Rico as a cat 5 storm...
I haven't seen any images yet, but it ravaged the islands of Dominica last night with a direct blow and now has Puerto Rico in its cross hairs.
Here is the updated cone from the NHC...
This storm is expected to turn due north then the question is will it become an east coast threat. At this time I do not think so. It will be a close call but most major model guidance have it curving out to sea due to an approaching trough from it west...
Below shows the trough coming in and kicking it out...
Regardless, we will have to still keep an eye on this as it is way too close for comfort. Lets also hope this doesn't hit Puerto Rico as bad as it is expected to.
More to come.
I personally have not been a huge fan of polar jet dips that cause big Canadian troughs which get down as far as Memphis or even Atlanta (I know that you snow people tend to like them!). BUT IN THIS CASE, whoa, if a negative Arctic Osc trend (as shown in today's AO forecasts) can kick a Cat 3 to 5 hurricane (Maria) out to sea and away from my neighborhood, then bring it on! I'll get out the sweaters and light coats, no problem! I guess it's time for some real autumn weather here in NJ anyway. But wow, the Atlantic hurricane season really isn't much past the half-way mark yet, but a lot has happened so far. Gonna be interesting to see how October pans out. Autumn foliage, baseball playoffs, World Series and hurricanes . . . and then November, get ready for the holidays and the various Winter 17-18 forecasts !! Willy, you definitely help "make the season" -- IIRC, you put out one of the earlier forecasts, in late October. PS, I see there's already some snow in northern and central Siberia. Jim G
ReplyDeleteUs snow people love them! I love this time of the year, nothing better than a chill in the air and some football. As far as this hurricane season is concerned, we are making up for lost time here fast. I am amazed at what the tropics can do when the conditions are ripe. I bet we see decent activity in October as well.
DeleteStay tuned for the Winter Forecast! Although, this developing La Nina has me concerned about a high snowfall winter for the Mid-Atlantic. We will have to monitor how strong it gets along with other factors of course.