Notice how the Leeward Islands, Bahamas, and potentially parts of Cuba are within this track. In the long range you can see the spread of solutions over Florida.
Below is one models spread on potential tracks. I drew what my thoughts are as of now with a yellow arrow. I am favoring a track just north of Cuba into the Bahamas and major impacts on FL and the SE US coast. Again, this is just my thoughts as of now and it can change and is not based on expert opinion. Take it with a grain of salt...
The steering to this storm is fairly complex and does in involve the timing of a few features as the storm approaches the US mainland. At this time however, all of FL needs to be prepared for impacts from a major hurricane along with the eastern Gulf SE coast. One consistent thing on all models has been the strength of this storm as it approaches the US...
The GFS for example is extremely strong due to little land interaction with Cuba with a sub 900mb low...
The European model does interact the storm more with the Island of Cuba and Hispaniola which weakens it as seen by a higher pressure of 962 seen below. Both of these outputs would have Cat 3 to Cat 4 winds which means easily over 100 mph in hardest hit areas...
I am showing this because the difference between this storm tracking just a little more to the south has big implications on track and strength. If the GFS is correct, the storm stays over more water and is stronger before potential US landfall. If the European is correct, the storm is allowed to weaken over land a little before potentially hitting the US more directly in Fl or the eastern Gulf. It is extremely hard to predict at this time what exactly occurs but the chances of this storm not hitting US land are diminishing. Two more days of consistent model runs I think we can take the curve out to sea option off the table. For now I would say its still an outside option.
Remember the complexity of where this storm tracks depends on the steering components in the atmosphere as seen below...
As I discussed yesterday we have an Atlantic high pressure system that is steering this due west for now. As the storm gets closer to the US, a leftover piece of energy over the Southeast US (due to a ridge breaking over the top) should help the storm turn north to northeast. The key is when does this all occur based on the placement and timing of these key features. My track is based on the SE energy feature being a little more aggressive causing a quicker turn on the storm.
Conclusion for now: everyone from the eastern Gulf to the east coast should be on alert for potential impacts this weekend into early next week with the key areas being the SE, Fl, and the eastern Gulf.
More to come on this daily.
I thought category 5 is 157MPH, no?
ReplyDeleteTechnically correct yes...im about to update the winds to 175mph actually but I wanted to wait to verify the report...its a monster
ReplyDeleteThanks. I read it might strengthen and got confused when I read your post about 150MPH. But youre right NHC latest 8am update is 175. Great blog!
ReplyDeleteThanks!
DeleteWilly, what's also interesting is how the models handle the 94L/Jose storm behind Irma. Looks like the trough that's now about to cool things down in our area goes out to sea and halts Jose's westward progress near the Lesser Antilles, luring it northward. Then the remains of Irma come over us and head east, and Jose starts to feel split between the two dying troughs, so it just stops in mid-ocean. And maybe another trough now over western Canada gets involved in the dance (although the Euro now puts a ridge between Jose and Irma's remains and keeps the Canada trough up around Hudson Bay). Of course, only us weather-geeks are going to notice, as the public contends with what could be a second major hurricane disaster in the mainland US. Still, quite an interesting exercise in upper-atmosphere dynamics. Jim G
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