Monday, August 13, 2018

Monday Weather Summary: More Wet and Unsettled Weather, Winter Tease

Good morning. Rainfall, thats been the story of this month so far as multiple storm systems have dropped heavy rain over the region. In my backyard, I have measured over 8" just this month alone. Pretty impressive and destructive for some as the rain has caused flooding.

Unfortunately, this week a stalled frontal boundary means more rounds of rain for the area.  Starting today, we will see some showers move in...

By tomorrow, it will not be as widespread, but more scattered showers can be expected..

We then should see a break Wed and Thurs before a more organized system arrives for Friday and Saturday. Indications are a low pressure system can develop  along the frontal system...

This would mean showers Friday and the chance at more consistent rain Saturday morning. We will have to wait and see what happens here. Regardless, the pattern of wet weather will continue.

Sunday looks to be a decent day overall. 

Winter Outlook Teaser:

We are  two months out from my winter outlook 2019, but of course I have begun to research the topic.

I always take long range models with a grain of salt for seasonal forecasting. Many times they are wrong. Regardless, just for fun here is the CANSIPS model for winter. I show this because it looks like the European Seasonal model which I do not have access too...

You can see a pattern of high pressure over the top with a pocket of storminess underneath in the east (blue). This would be quite the pattern for the Mid Atlantic into New England as a lot of energy would get caught up over the east and there would be cold air available. 

Can this occur? Stay tuned.

Monday, July 30, 2018

Tuesday Weekly Weather Summery: Typical Summer Week

 Good morning. As we progress into the heart of the week, humidity will return along with the chance of some showers and storms to hit the region. A frontal boundary is currently settled just south of our area and this boundary will meander all week Overall it will feel like a typical summer week.

Today will feature the slight chance of unsettled weather as a warm front moves towards our area from off the coast.

This will be more noticeable Wednesday as humidity increases and showers overspread the area...

This pattern then continues into the weekend. There are no washouts on the horizon just the chance of showers everyday of the week mostly. The weekend will see these showers less frequent as the air mass should stabilize some.  Nothing I am too concerned about.

As far as temperatures are concerned, expect mid 80's all week.

In terms of the long range outlook, August should start on the warmer side but then moderate as we get to mid month. I do not see any heatwaves on the horizon for the northeast. This is a pretty tame pattern we are dealing with heat wise.

Believe it or not, we are almost at that time of year when we can start looking at Winter 2019! I already have a few idea but will wait to later in Aug to start discussing.

Friday, July 20, 2018

Weekend Update: Rainstorm on Tap

Good evening. I wanted to update blog due to a pending rainstorm that will hit the area Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. In its wake, expect unstable conditions for at least the first half of next week with multiple chances at showers. This is all due to an unsettled pattern involving tropical moisture being sent into the area over a period of days.

Starting with tomorrow rain will move in by mid afternoon as a coastal low develops. This is pretty interesting because this is usually something we would see in the fall not mid July...

By the evening, it is raining stead in many areas with gusty winds...

The storm clears in the early hours of Sunday morning...

We are then left with mostly cloudy skies Sunday with the chance of a few showers. This is a big wildcard day as models are a little variable with how much rain they show. There is a chance the day can be salvageable.

Moving on , more rain comes on Monday as waves of tropical moisture cause showers over the area...

The next image below shows the moisture in green...notice the flow off the Atlantic right into our region as seen by the green shades...

This will cause this pattern to persist for a few days, pretty remarkable.

Moving back to Saturday, the upper level pattern intrigues me as it looks like an impressive winter storm with an upper level low to the west  over Ohio valley and a surface low on the coast...

IF only this was January.....

The next image shows how our trough of low pressure (blue) is squeezed between two ridges of high pressure out in the Atlantic and to the west. This is what is allowing the onshore flow of tropical moisture and days of unsettled weather...

Thats all for now, more to come on Monday. 

Tuesday, July 17, 2018

Weekly Weather Update: Storms Tonight Break Humidity, Nice Weather to Follow

Good morning. We are currently under an intense humidity regime across the region. It is downright sticky and miserable out.  This high moisture content in the air will aid in producing very heavy downpours later this afternoon as a cold front finally crosses the area. Some of these storms also can be severe..

This will cross through by later tonight. In its wake we then will have a stretch of beautiful weather through Saturday as high pressure build in and humidity values drop as seen by dew points below...

Expect temperatures in the low to mid 80s with a very comfortable summer feel to the air.

Things can get unsettled again on Sunday as tropical moisture approaches from the south...

There will be potential for some more widespread rain but we need to see how this evolves over the next few days.

Looking at the long range, it now appears the rest of July into Aug will be on the cooler side of things. Long term models along with other climate signals I look at such as the MJO indicate a trough over the east in the long range...

It will still feel like summer, we just should not see any heatwaves in a pattern like this. To me thats good news!

Thats all for now. As we enter August I will start to comment on the winter season. It may still be early but we can still start to discuss factors!

Tuesday, July 10, 2018

Weekly Weather Update: Normal Summer Week

Good morning. Not anything too exciting to discuss for this week. We will see some warmer temperatures today (Tuesday) followed by a little bit of a cool down as we head towards the weekend. Offshore, a tropical system will be out in the Atlantic.

Highs today will be in the upper 80's to low 90s. A weak cold front then moves into the area tonight..

Expect a few scattered showers and storms but nothing too widespread.

Things then stay mostly sunny with temperatures in the low to mid 80's through the weekend as high pressure maintains control of the region. There is a shot at another frontal passage later on Saturday that can bring a little unsettled weather but nothing too widespread expected at this time.

Out in the Atlantic, we have a tropical system that will stay out to sea. Nothing major here but it is worth noting..

Thats all for now, enjoy the week.

Tuesday, July 3, 2018

Tuesday 4th of July Outlook: More Brutal Heat, Awesome Weekend

Good morning. As we all sizzle in the brutal heat this week, the natural question is how much longer does this heat last?

Well, we got a few more days to go guys with relief finally coming this weekend as a strong cold front will approach.

Today (Tuesday) will be another very hot and humid day with temperatures in the mid to upper 90's and heat index over 100. A very weak cold front will move into the area this afternoon which will cause some storms to pop up...

I do not expect anything severe, just a few heavy downpours possible due to the high moisture in the air.

As we enter the 4th the heat does not break as this stubborn impressive upper level ridge of high pressure lingers over the area....

The temperatures should peak early this week but we are only talking a few degrees less for Wednesday and Thursday so still very hot (90s) and no many chances at any rain/storms.

The relief finally comes starting Friday as a stronger cold front will move in with showers and storms ahead of it Friday morning...

Temperatures will break and highs will be in the mid 80s which will be welcomed.

We then hit a gorgeous weekend as humidity crashes and an upper level trough sits near our area bringing with it cool summer weather...

Temperatures will be in the high 70's to mid 80's with low humidity. Just picture perfect for 4th of July weekend! Notice how our big ridge that caused the warm weather is pulled back to the west.

So there you go. If we can survive the next few days of heat, we will be rewarded with a perfect weekend.

Happy 4th!

Monday, June 25, 2018

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: A Nice Week Ahead, Major Heat to Follow

Good morning. It looks like we will have a nice week of summer weather on tap with moderate temperatures and mostly clear conditions.

The only shot for rain appears to be some showers and storms Wednesday night and Thursday as a frontal system will be moving through the area...

As we enter the weekend the headline will the heat. Starting Saturday, a larger upper level ridge starts to form over the area...

This ridge continues to build into early next week..

Now this has the chance to be record breaking. There are some crazy model projections out there right now for how hot it can get early next week..

Keep in mind  this can be overdone. Regardless, you can see triple digit heat is possible next week through the 4th of July.

I will have  a follow up post on this later this week.

Friday, June 22, 2018

Weekend Update: Some Unsettled Weather

Good morning. It looks like we will now how to deal with some rain Saturday as a storm system moves through the area. I am unable to upload pictures this morning due to website issues but here is what to expect.

Showers will move into tomorrow morning with mostly cloudy skies. By the afternoon the sun can poke out a little but there will still be the threat for showers and storms as we enter the evening hours.  Temperatures will stay in the 70's.

On Sunday another upper level disturbance can cause some more showers and storms but I expect a little more sunshine with warmer temperatures in the 80s.

So overall not the worst weekend but we definitely will have some rain to deal with.  Saturday afternoon can be ok in spots with Sunday the better day overall.

Tuesday, June 19, 2018

Tuesday Weekly Weather Summary: Heat Breaks

Good morning. Yesterday (Monday) was the hottest day of the year for many and the humidity really cranked up too. I think it reminded us all to be careful what we wish for. It may have been a cooler spring but once that humidity cranks up it isn't so pleasant.

Today will feature temperatures in the mid to upper 80's but relief comes in later as a cold front enters the area taking the humidity out of the air as seen by the lower dew points...

By Wednesday and Thursday temperatures will drop to lower 80's and things will become quite pleasant. 

There is the shot that a disturbance moves along a frontal boundary Wednesday night into possibly Thursday morning causing some showers and storms...

A cool Canadian high pressure system then moves in Friday and will result in a very pleasant and cooler weekend. Expect temperatures in the upper 70's Friday and lower 70's Saturday....

We then may see another system effect the area Sunday morning with some showers, but things do look to clear for Sunday afternoon...

From here we then should enter a typical summer pattern with a mix of warmer than normal and average temperature days. 

Enjoy the week.

Tuesday, June 12, 2018

Tuesday Weekly Weather Summary: Calm and Pleasant

Good morning. Not much to say for this week. Temperatures have been on the tame side all spring/early summer and that will continue next several days.

The only chance for some showers at this time is Wednesday afternoon as a weak front moves into the area...

High pressure then returns to the region for the weekend...

This means pleasant temperatures in the high 70s to low 80s with very little humidity.

Some heat will try to build by early next week as a ridge moves into the area...

However, as the theme has been going all season this does not look to last and cooler air returns for the end of next week and beyond. You can see this by a ridge of HP over the west and trough of low pressure/cooler air in the east...

Considering I hate hot and humid weather I am not complaining.  So far I have not used my AC all summer. Lets see how long the streak continues.

Monday, June 4, 2018

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: Cooler But Ok Overall

Good morning. As we now have entered June, many have been wondering where is summer? The last several weeks have featured a lot of unsettled weather along with frequent rain. As we head into this week, it will be a little more of the same but not as wet.

The highlight of this week will be the cooler than normal temperatures. Temperatures will be in the 70's and maybe even high 60's on Wednesday. This is due to cold Canadian air flowing into the region.

Today will clear up nicely with temperatures in the 70's.

Tuesday also looks to be a decent day with partly cloudy skies and a chance a an isolated shower or storm later in the day..

As we enter Wednesday, a cool Canadian high pressure system moves in which will clear up the skies but cause temperatures to drop below normal..

This is where many areas, especially up in New England will see highs in the 60's.

The rest of the week then stays tame with temperatures climbing slightly but still staying in the 70's with mostly sunny skies.

For the weekend, we need to watch out for showers and storms as a warm front will try to move up into the area. The question then becomes will a low pressure system try to form along this front causing rain issues for Sunday.

Right now the models are showing something can happen later on Sunday...

Before that however, it does look like the weekend can be spared with maybe just the chance at some afternoon showers and storms Saturday afternoon.

Overall not a bad week just cooler than normal. As the next few weeks progress, it looks like a continuation of this cooler than normal and unsettled pattern continues. As we enter late June and July, a normal summer pattern should take hold which should eliminate the chances of any rainstorms. Instead, we will see the normal pattern of afternoon showers and storms at times. Regardless, I do not see any big heatwaves on the horizon.

Thursday, May 24, 2018

Memorial Day Weekend Forecast: Mixed Bag

Good morning. As promised, I wanted to give everyone a holiday weekend forecast. Overall, it looks to be a mixed bag this weekend. Things start off very summer like tomorrow through Saturday with sunny skies and temperatures in the 80's with some humidity building Saturday. By Sunday however, unsettled weather enters the region causing showers. The weekend then may make a comeback just in time for Memorial Day.

The pleasant stretch of weather for Friday and Saturday comes thanks to some high pressure entering the region...

Friday will truly be the best day with sunny skies and low humidity.

By Saturday, we see mostly clear skies but the humidity increases as we get into the afternoon. With this increase in humidity there is the chance we see a few isolated showers, but nothing to be too concerned about. Temperatures will warm to the upper 80's.

Entering Sunday, things will start to go downhill as moisture from the south runs into a backdoor frontal boundary coming from the northeast...

Expect mostly cloudy skies with showers in the morning then again in the afternoon on and off. You can see this illustrated above.

By the time we get to Monday, there is hope some nicer weather can return. Expect mostly cloudy skies in the morning with the chance the sun breaks out by the afternoon. Temperatures will hover in the mid 70s with the chance at a few showers.

Thats all for now. Lets hope we see more sunshine than rain!

Monday, May 21, 2018

Monday, May 14, 2018

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: Unsettled and Wet

Good morning. After a beautiful week last week this week will feature the opposite. Rounds of showers will effect the area all week and by the weekend we will see the shot at a more consistent rain as tropical moisture moves in.

There is currently a frontal boundary hovering over our area. As the week progresses disturbances will move along the boundary causing showers and storms...

Some sun could break out for a little bit tomorrow, but unsettled conditions will follow.

This pattern continues all week and we then have the tropical moisture enter the mix...

You can see below a tropical system that will be in the Gulf producing alot of rain in that area...

By Thursday this all working it's way up near us...

This will cause quite the rainy scenerio Friday through the weekend.

I will have an update later this week.

Monday, May 7, 2018

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: Pleasant

Good morning. After the rainfall yesterday, we not will embark on a very pleasant stretch of weather. In meteorological terms that means boring, but for most normal folks it is quite the good news.

Expect mostly sunny conditions this week with temperatures in the 70's. The only wrinkle in the equation I see right now are some potential showers Thursday night as a front moves through..

This front will keep temperatures nice for the weekend which also looks to be quite nice at this time. We could see some more showers Sunday but the jury is still out on that.

The next actionable weather item will be severe weather season. As summer like temps and humidity eventually arrive so does that threat. This blog will get more active if anything catches my eye in that regard. Until then, expect weekly weather summaries on Monday's and a weekend update on Fridays.

Enjoy the week. 

Friday, May 4, 2018

Weekend Update: Saturday is a Winner

Good morning. We finally got our dose of summer temps this week. Temperatures rose into the 90s but with low humidity this was quite nice in my opinion. 

For today, things stay on the warm side with temps in the mid to upper 80s.

A cold front then moves in tonight and a few isolated thunderstorms are possible...

The front will bring a cool down for Saturday with sunny skies and beautiful temperatures in the 70s!

As we enter Sunday, a disturbance from the south can cause scattered showers as the day gets underway...

This means mostly cloudy with some breaks of sun possible as afternoon wears on.

Enjoy the weekend!

Monday, April 30, 2018

Monday Weather Summary: The Heat Turns Up

Good morning. The highlight of this week will be our first shot at late spring temps as we get into the core of the week. A ridge of high pressure off the Atlantic ocean will move in over the east coast bringing with it temperatures in the 80s by Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.

Today will be the only cooler day with temperatures in the upper 50's as a upper level low spins out of the area. A few showers are possible...

The ridge then builds in as the week progresses...

Temperaures respond at the surface...

By Friday, there is a chance a front works into the area bringing the chance at showers...

Depending on the timing of this we will have to see impacts and if they end up bleeding into Saturday morning. Regardless, I expect another nice weekend ahead once this front clears with temperatures moderating into the mid 70's.

Enjoy the nice weather!