Monday, May 21, 2018

Monday, May 14, 2018

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: Unsettled and Wet

Good morning. After a beautiful week last week this week will feature the opposite. Rounds of showers will effect the area all week and by the weekend we will see the shot at a more consistent rain as tropical moisture moves in.

There is currently a frontal boundary hovering over our area. As the week progresses disturbances will move along the boundary causing showers and storms...


Some sun could break out for a little bit tomorrow, but unsettled conditions will follow.

This pattern continues all week and we then have the tropical moisture enter the mix...

You can see below a tropical system that will be in the Gulf producing alot of rain in that area...


By Thursday this all working it's way up near us...


This will cause quite the rainy scenerio Friday through the weekend.

I will have an update later this week.

Monday, May 7, 2018

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: Pleasant

Good morning. After the rainfall yesterday, we not will embark on a very pleasant stretch of weather. In meteorological terms that means boring, but for most normal folks it is quite the good news.

Expect mostly sunny conditions this week with temperatures in the 70's. The only wrinkle in the equation I see right now are some potential showers Thursday night as a front moves through..


This front will keep temperatures nice for the weekend which also looks to be quite nice at this time. We could see some more showers Sunday but the jury is still out on that.

The next actionable weather item will be severe weather season. As summer like temps and humidity eventually arrive so does that threat. This blog will get more active if anything catches my eye in that regard. Until then, expect weekly weather summaries on Monday's and a weekend update on Fridays.

Enjoy the week. 

Friday, May 4, 2018

Weekend Update: Saturday is a Winner

Good morning. We finally got our dose of summer temps this week. Temperatures rose into the 90s but with low humidity this was quite nice in my opinion. 

For today, things stay on the warm side with temps in the mid to upper 80s.

A cold front then moves in tonight and a few isolated thunderstorms are possible...



The front will bring a cool down for Saturday with sunny skies and beautiful temperatures in the 70s!



As we enter Sunday, a disturbance from the south can cause scattered showers as the day gets underway...


This means mostly cloudy with some breaks of sun possible as afternoon wears on.

Enjoy the weekend!

Monday, April 30, 2018

Monday Weather Summary: The Heat Turns Up

Good morning. The highlight of this week will be our first shot at late spring temps as we get into the core of the week. A ridge of high pressure off the Atlantic ocean will move in over the east coast bringing with it temperatures in the 80s by Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.

Today will be the only cooler day with temperatures in the upper 50's as a upper level low spins out of the area. A few showers are possible...

The ridge then builds in as the week progresses...

Temperaures respond at the surface...

By Friday, there is a chance a front works into the area bringing the chance at showers...

Depending on the timing of this we will have to see impacts and if they end up bleeding into Saturday morning. Regardless, I expect another nice weekend ahead once this front clears with temperatures moderating into the mid 70's.

Enjoy the nice weather!

Monday, April 23, 2018

Monday Weather Summary: Not A Bad Week Ahead

Good morning. As spring wears on even cooler than normal temperatures still feel pleasant. This regime will continue over the next week with highs in the low to mid 60s. With a late April sun however this will feel quite nice.

By the time we get to Wednesday a low pressure system does bring rounds of rain into the area...


Rain should end by later on Wednesday paving the way for nicer weather Thursday and Friday.

We then have to watch the potential for another low pressure system to develop on Saturday. If this occurs we could see some more rain, but the jury is still out...

As if now Sunday looks to be ok making for a decent weekend.

I do not see any prolonged warm ups in sight yet. Next week maybe see a few days above normal but then again the 60s with sun this time of year feel quite good imo.

Will update again around mid week.

Wednesday, April 18, 2018

Wednesday Note: No Big Warmups Yet

After looking at this weather pattern last few days, it is apparent that colder than normal temps will persist at least the next two weeks. From there, there is evidence that noticeably warmer temps could arrive by mid May.

You can see the chilly pattern next 5 days...

This means alot of 50s and 60s for temps.

Not horrible but certainly not summer like. As May gets underway strengthening polar vortex can mean warm air will work its way back north. Let's see what happens.

Friday, April 13, 2018

Friday Update: Major Snowstorm for Northern Plains, Warm in Mid Atlantic

Good morning. As temperatures begin to heat up over our region today and tomorrow (70s and 80s!), a major snowstorm will unfold in the northern plains...

This is very impressive and many areas will see ober a foot if not 2 feet of snow with this. To the south severe weather will break out.

As we enter this weekend the warm up will be confined to the Mid Atlantic and a back door cold front keeps it cool up in New England. Pretty crazy temperature gradient...

70s and 80s to the south and 20s to the north.

As the big storm system works it's way east, northern New England will see winter mix of precip later this weekend and our region sees showers and thunderstorms come Monday...


Not the best day to start the work week.

Here are projected snow totals when this is all said and done...



That's all for now, enjoy the beautiful weekend.

Tuesday, April 10, 2018

Tuesday Weather Update : Some Warmer Temps This Weekend, Storm in Plains

Good morning. Although the snow threats may be over for the most part, things have still been on the chilly side this month. Overall the chill will try to hold on but we will get some breaks into spring weather starting this weekend. Below you can see temps will finally go above normal..

Temperatures will climb into the 60s and 70s finally for most areas in the red this weekend! Notice the sharp cutoff to the north due to a backdoor cold front.

As we warm up in the east, a big storm in the plains reeks havoc with severe weather to the south and a blizzard in the northern plains...


This storm makes it into our region on Monday. Expect showers, heavy at times and thunderstorms as it moves through. Notice the snow still raging to the way north.

This is a very powerful and impressive system that is projected!

Take a look at the big upper level low! You will see impacts from this thing in the news...


That's all for now, i will comment more later this week. 

Friday, April 6, 2018

Friday Update: Dogged A Bullet

Good Morning. Sorry for no update yesterday, had a very busy day. In any event, the good news is our snow threat for Saturday has fizzled out. The storm will not amplify as originally projected and pass to our south...

Some snow will fall in VA, southern MD, DE, and extreme southern NJ. I do not expect major impacts down there however unless it's a higher elevation. Expect a few inches.

For the rest of us, this will just be a cold weekend for this time of year.

As we enter next week, another storm system is now projected to move to our south. We still need to also watch this closely however as if it amplifies more than expected it could result in a storm closer to the coast. Regardless, from the set up I see that scenerio would be rain unless it's in interior New England.

The Canadian model is the only one showing that scenerio...


From there things do stay chilly but that will do it for snow threats this year. Give it 2 more weeks and spring should be here in full swing. Until then, more colder than normal with a few spring days mixed in.

Will have more updates this weekend.

Wednesday, April 4, 2018

Wednesday Update: Snowstorm Potential for Saturrday

Good morning. This is no April fools joke, the current weather pattern we are in is impressive and potentially will deliver more winter weather on Saturday! I know this is bad news for most, but for a weather nut like me I can never get enough.

So lets talk about whats going on and how I think this evolves.

As I have been discussing we have very cold air in Canada that will be getting delivered into the eastern 1/3 of the country as we approach this weekend...


Also notice the pattern of a ridge in the west, some blocking over Greeland and an impressive vortex over eastern Canada. All these factors help lock in this cold air...


This air mass will feel more like March than April and is the first ingredient in our potential winter storm.

As this cold air mass establishes itself, a low pressure system will try to spin up on the boundary between warm and cold air Saturday...


Now as it stands I think the models are still too far south with this. I think it is likely this warm/cold boundary is a little more north and as a result we have the storm track about 50-75 miles more north than what you see above. That would make the threat map look like this...


Too early to talk accumulation as that is really depending on timing. If the storm hits peak during Saturday afternoon totals will be reduced due to the Sun. If it hits peak earlier then we have higher totals to discuss. Regardless, the potential for 4+ inches is easily on the table here.


More to come daily on this.

Monday, April 2, 2018

Monday Morning: April Snow Day

Good morning. As of 7am snow is falling regionwide and accumulations are starting to pile up. Many areas have a few inches on the ground with higher elevations of NW NJ already with 5" of snow. It seems the roads are somewhat snow covered in many areas.

The snow will end soon as the back edge is approaching. By 9 to 10am this is over...

When it's all said and done looks like this will go down as a nice early spring moderate snowfall. As short as this storm is, it packed a little punch.

Just wait till the sun comes out this afternoon and you will see how quick this melts. 

We still need to watch next weekend until we are out of the woods this winter season.

More to come.

Sunday, April 1, 2018

Snow Tomorrow Morning: What to Expect

A wave of low pressure moves into the region early tomorrow morning expect snow to accumulate north of I78 1 to 3 inches on grassy surfaces. The pavement should for the most part stay in decent shape.

For areas above 800ft in PA and NW NJ expect enhanced amounts of 3 to 5 inches. The roads should hold some snow.

Snow is over by mid morning. This should not be a concern for metro areas.

Next weekend we have one more shot at a winter type storm. Will narrow out details this week.

Happy Easter!

Saturday, March 31, 2018

Snow Monday

Will comment more tomorrow but there will be a wave of snow moving through the region Monday morning. For metro areas I expect accumulations mostly on non pavement surfaces  2 to 3 inches.

There should be some enhanced amounts in the interior especially at high elevations. 3 to 5 might be possible there but again that is not widespread.

Overall from CNJ to southern New England a 2 to 4 inch snowfall on non pavement mostly with the travels impacts more focused on higher elevations of NW NJ, PA etc.

More to come on this. My post from yesterday has some further details.

Friday, March 30, 2018

Friday Update: Winter Just Doesn't Want to Quit

Good evening and Happy Easter weekend! It may be spring and it may be Easter, but winter just does not want to quit this year. The mild temperatures today will give way to a chill in the air by this weekend and then things start to get very interesting.

Over the next 10 days or so the area will be hit with waves of cold Canadian air as it gets released from central Canada. As this occurs there is the chance for snow in many areas starting with Monday morning. As we then approach the end of next week as crazy as it sounds, there could be the threat for an even bigger storm. Of course given its spring you can seek some comfort that snow is fairly rare but when the pattern fits, you need to keep an eye out.

It all starts with the colder than normal air currently pooled in Canada...

The purple shows below normal temperatures and provides a source region for cold intrusions into the eastern United States.

As we get to the end of the weekend some of this cold starts to move in...

You will notice a chill in the air arrive and on its approach a wave a low pressure could develop Monday morning causing snow...

The pattern certainty supports this but not to worry, the impacts shouldn't be too bad if this happens. Maybe some slick roads in the morning and all melted by the afternoon. 1-4 inches possible with this. I will comment more this weekend.

As we then move on towards the end of next week the next big and possibly more impressive shot of cold air arrives....

I would look to interior New England at the higher elevation to potentially see snow as this cold front moves in Wednesday...

We now enter the period of concern. In the wake of this front moving through there is a chance the cold air becomes locked in ahead of the next approaching storm system...


Looking above you are seeing the upper air setup as we head into next weekend. Few things to notice here:


  • Cold air is established and potentially locked in by block and vortex near eastern Canada
  • We have two sources of energy one diving through the northern plains and the other coming potentially from the south (two red X's)
  • Potential aid in this coming together due to a ridge flexing on the west coast
We do not know exactly how this will play but this is as good as a set up as you will ever see to produce a winter event in April come next weekend.

Right now the models are flirting with the idea...

GFS...

European...

Lets see what happens the potential is there.

Monday, March 26, 2018

Monday Note: Some Warmth, One Last Cold Shot Possible

Good morning. A quick note today. As we are now in spring, we start the climb up to pleasant temperatures and nice weather. However, with the atmospheric setup think year there will be a few bumps along the way. There is still alot of cold air up in Canada that needs to be watched.

In the short term, temps will warm up nicely towards the end of this week...


As we move past the Easter holiday however the cold air in Canada may try to spill south next week at one point...

It's an impressive pool of cold and given the pattern I see we would have to keep an eye out for one last winter type event by the end of the 1st week of April. History is on our side and the chances are still low, but the pattern could support it.

That's all for now.

Thursday, March 22, 2018

Thursday: The Aftermath

Well that was interesting yesterday. We did not see the widespread 8 to 16 inch totals as my final forecast had but this storm sure didn't want to quit last night. It was still snowing here in Morristown at 3am! We ended  up with 6 or 7 inches here which was low compared to others.

Looking at all the snow reports below (click to enlarge), my 6 to 12 would have been more appropriate with local amounts over  a foot...


Regardless, this storm was no spring chicken. It just did not live up to the hype of my final update Tuesday night. I don't want to pull a trick and cherry pick a few high totals and act like I was on point.

I appreachiate all the nice comments and all the folks who enjoy following. This is just a hobby of mine but the blog and interaction with followers makes it much more fun.

Winter is now on its last leg but we are not in the clear until April this year.

Stay tuned.

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

6PM Update: Yup, Its a Bust...@weatherwilly takes it on the chin

As many of you prob assumed already this storm is a big bust for most but not all areas......


I blew it on this one folks. After looking at the latest observations this thing will not throw much heavy precip back onto land tonight for most areas. What we will get is just a light to moderate non eventful snowfall with maybe a few more inches of accumulation. I wanted to be cautious with this storm but went against my instinct and folded to the impressive snow printouts the models had last night. Lesson learned!

There are areas that are seeing 8+ inches of snow (PA did very well with this) and you will see reports of 12 inches maybe even a little more but localized reports do not justify a forecast. We are not seeing widespread impressive accumulations.

Despise the fact every major model was showing an impactful storm, the reality was this storm just did not tighten up enough on a large scale. What I mean by that is the energy transfer from the low out in the ohio valley to the low off the coast was way too stretched out and not compact. This means the best dynamics for heavy snow stayed off shore.

Snow will continue through midnight for many areas but as I said it will not too heavy. Expect a few more inches before this is all said and done.


I hate to end the year with a big swing and a miss but you live and you learn. I really took the bait last night.

Things will stay on the chilly side into April this year and yes it could snow again but we are really testing the extreme of climatology this late in the season. Lets see how things go.

I appreciate everyone who has been following and i'll do better for you next time!


4pm Update: This Has a While to Go

I have seen many reports ranging from 2-8 inches so far region wide.

Current radar shows our coastal low taking over...


As this coastal low intensifies over next few hours heavy precip gets thrown onshore. The model below shows this valid 8pm...


I highlighted potential heavy snow bands. The observations to me right now support to double current amounts for areas  within the vicinity of these highlighted regions. This means what ever you have on the ground now expect more of the same next 8 hours. 

Eventually this all slides east and the storms ends around midnight...

Long island may get blasted on the departure of this storm along with CT if a big band develops.


Stay tuned I will have one more update a little later. 

Noon Update: Storm Gets Going As Afternoon Wears On, Some Changes

The storm is now well underway for some and for others it has been sparse. The snow will pick up in all areas as the afternoon wears on and continue into this evening. However, this storm will not be as impact as feared last night. What that means is my final forecast issued yesterday morning (6-12") was more appropriate than my update last night (8-16").The result is many areas see between 6-12 inches not 8-16 inches of snow. Yes, there will be local amounts that still do go over 12".

So what happened? Despite the aggressive outputs from almost every model last night, the reality of the situation is the low pressure system is not going to wind up as tight as originally thought. We have a broad elongated trough. Below you can see the closed circulation at 18000 ft in the atmosphere (upper low) trend to be more off the coast...


This small change as projected and now as being observed will cause the heavier snow bands to be more east and even off shore. 

The current radar shows snow forming and this will fill in to moderate snow by the middle of this afternoon...


Again, this still will be a moderate to heavy snowstorm and the snow will not stop till late tonight.

So I jumped the gun last night and should have stuck with my original ideas on this storm. The models got way too over amped last night. 

Its March 21st and this still will be one of the more impressive late season storm but not anywhere close to storms like in March of 1958. 

I will have another update by mid afternoon to see how things are going. 

7am Update: Storm Starting Up

Good morning. No changes to my forecast with a range of 8 to 16 inches for many areas...

Snow is now starting to spread into the region, but this really does not get going toll later this morning...

By late morning, accumulations start to become noticible as the low starts to crank off the coast...

By mid afternoon I expect snow to really start piling up...

By this late tonight we are still snowing...


Get your stuff done this morning. Things will not be in good shape come afternoon. Eveything seems on track at this point. Remember 8 to 16 means 8 to 16. It doesn't mean 14 to 16. I expect a range with this and locailized higher amounts.


Will have update late this morning