Snow Monday

Will comment more tomorrow but there will be a wave of snow moving through the region Monday morning. For metro areas I expect accumulations mostly on non pavement surfaces  2 to 3 inches.

There should be some enhanced amounts in the interior especially at high elevations. 3 to 5 might be possible there but again that is not widespread.

Overall from CNJ to southern New England a 2 to 4 inch snowfall on non pavement mostly with the travels impacts more focused on higher elevations of NW NJ, PA etc.

More to come on this. My post from yesterday has some further details.

Friday Update: Winter Just Doesn't Want to Quit

Good evening and Happy Easter weekend! It may be spring and it may be Easter, but winter just does not want to quit this year. The mild temperatures today will give way to a chill in the air by this weekend and then things start to get very interesting.

Over the next 10 days or so the area will be hit with waves of cold Canadian air as it gets released from central Canada. As this occurs there is the chance for snow in many areas starting with Monday morning. As we then approach the end of next week as crazy as it sounds, there could be the threat for an even bigger storm. Of course given its spring you can seek some comfort that snow is fairly rare but when the pattern fits, you need to keep an eye out.

It all starts with the colder than normal air currently pooled in Canada...

The purple shows below normal temperatures and provides a source region for cold intrusions into the eastern United States.

As we get to the end of the weekend some of this cold starts to move in...

You will notice a chill in the air arrive and on its approach a wave a low pressure could develop Monday morning causing snow...

The pattern certainty supports this but not to worry, the impacts shouldn't be too bad if this happens. Maybe some slick roads in the morning and all melted by the afternoon. 1-4 inches possible with this. I will comment more this weekend.

As we then move on towards the end of next week the next big and possibly more impressive shot of cold air arrives....

I would look to interior New England at the higher elevation to potentially see snow as this cold front moves in Wednesday...

We now enter the period of concern. In the wake of this front moving through there is a chance the cold air becomes locked in ahead of the next approaching storm system...

Looking above you are seeing the upper air setup as we head into next weekend. Few things to notice here:

• Cold air is established and potentially locked in by block and vortex near eastern Canada
• We have two sources of energy one diving through the northern plains and the other coming potentially from the south (two red X's)
• Potential aid in this coming together due to a ridge flexing on the west coast

We do not know exactly how this will play but this is as good as a set up as you will ever see to produce a winter event in April come next weekend.

Right now the models are flirting with the idea...

GFS...

European...

Lets see what happens the potential is there.

Monday Note: Some Warmth, One Last Cold Shot Possible

Good morning. A quick note today. As we are now in spring, we start the climb up to pleasant temperatures and nice weather. However, with the atmospheric setup think year there will be a few bumps along the way. There is still alot of cold air up in Canada that needs to be watched.

In the short term, temps will warm up nicely towards the end of this week...

As we move past the Easter holiday however the cold air in Canada may try to spill south next week at one point...

It's an impressive pool of cold and given the pattern I see we would have to keep an eye out for one last winter type event by the end of the 1st week of April. History is on our side and the chances are still low, but the pattern could support it.

That's all for now.

Thursday: The Aftermath

Well that was interesting yesterday. We did not see the widespread 8 to 16 inch totals as my final forecast had but this storm sure didn't want to quit last night. It was still snowing here in Morristown at 3am! We ended  up with 6 or 7 inches here which was low compared to others.

Looking at all the snow reports below (click to enlarge), my 6 to 12 would have been more appropriate with local amounts over  a foot...

Regardless, this storm was no spring chicken. It just did not live up to the hype of my final update Tuesday night. I don't want to pull a trick and cherry pick a few high totals and act like I was on point.

I appreachiate all the nice comments and all the folks who enjoy following. This is just a hobby of mine but the blog and interaction with followers makes it much more fun.

Winter is now on its last leg but we are not in the clear until April this year.

Stay tuned.

6PM Update: Yup, Its a Bust...@weatherwilly takes it on the chin

As many of you prob assumed already this storm is a big bust for most but not all areas......

I blew it on this one folks. After looking at the latest observations this thing will not throw much heavy precip back onto land tonight for most areas. What we will get is just a light to moderate non eventful snowfall with maybe a few more inches of accumulation. I wanted to be cautious with this storm but went against my instinct and folded to the impressive snow printouts the models had last night. Lesson learned!

There are areas that are seeing 8+ inches of snow (PA did very well with this) and you will see reports of 12 inches maybe even a little more but localized reports do not justify a forecast. We are not seeing widespread impressive accumulations.

Despise the fact every major model was showing an impactful storm, the reality was this storm just did not tighten up enough on a large scale. What I mean by that is the energy transfer from the low out in the ohio valley to the low off the coast was way too stretched out and not compact. This means the best dynamics for heavy snow stayed off shore.

Snow will continue through midnight for many areas but as I said it will not too heavy. Expect a few more inches before this is all said and done.


I hate to end the year with a big swing and a miss but you live and you learn. I really took the bait last night.

Things will stay on the chilly side into April this year and yes it could snow again but we are really testing the extreme of climatology this late in the season. Lets see how things go.

I appreciate everyone who has been following and i'll do better for you next time!

4pm Update: This Has a While to Go

I have seen many reports ranging from 2-8 inches so far region wide.

Current radar shows our coastal low taking over...

As this coastal low intensifies over next few hours heavy precip gets thrown onshore. The model below shows this valid 8pm...

I highlighted potential heavy snow bands. The observations to me right now support to double current amounts for areas  within the vicinity of these highlighted regions. This means what ever you have on the ground now expect more of the same next 8 hours. 

Eventually this all slides east and the storms ends around midnight...

Long island may get blasted on the departure of this storm along with CT if a big band develops.


Stay tuned I will have one more update a little later. 

Noon Update: Storm Gets Going As Afternoon Wears On, Some Changes

The storm is now well underway for some and for others it has been sparse. The snow will pick up in all areas as the afternoon wears on and continue into this evening. However, this storm will not be as impact as feared last night. What that means is my final forecast issued yesterday morning (6-12") was more appropriate than my update last night (8-16").The result is many areas see between 6-12 inches not 8-16 inches of snow. Yes, there will be local amounts that still do go over 12".

So what happened? Despite the aggressive outputs from almost every model last night, the reality of the situation is the low pressure system is not going to wind up as tight as originally thought. We have a broad elongated trough. Below you can see the closed circulation at 18000 ft in the atmosphere (upper low) trend to be more off the coast...

This small change as projected and now as being observed will cause the heavier snow bands to be more east and even off shore. 

The current radar shows snow forming and this will fill in to moderate snow by the middle of this afternoon...

Again, this still will be a moderate to heavy snowstorm and the snow will not stop till late tonight.

So I jumped the gun last night and should have stuck with my original ideas on this storm. The models got way too over amped last night. 

Its March 21st and this still will be one of the more impressive late season storm but not anywhere close to storms like in March of 1958. 

I will have another update by mid afternoon to see how things are going.