Wednesday: Storm Should Stay Out to Sea, Winters a Dud

Good morning. The latest data is in and unless we see some pretty dramatic changes over next 24 hours this storm should stay out to sea this weekend. I can support this solution because when I look at the atmospheric pattern I see too much of a progressive flow. 

This means an output to what the GFS has is likely correct. At best maybe this can trend a little west to scrape New England with some snow...

So I cannot say I am surprised. You all know I was against this storm from the start.

The long range looks like more of the same. This winter is on life support from all the long range signals I am looking at.  Our best bet is to hope for some winter weather as we head towards March when the seasonal transition starts which can shake up the pattern a little.

I know, it is only January 29th but I really do not like what I see. This has been one of the worst winters in recent memory. Up there with some of the all time snowless so far. It snows where it wants to snow and it is crystal clear snow is not in the cards for this region this winter. 

Stay tuned. It really can not get any worse.

Tuesday: Looking the Same

I recommend reading my post yesterday. I explain why I am not bullish on big snow for the coastal cities this weekend despite some models showing a big storm in some cases. In summary it has to do with a combination of no cold air and the wrong upper air setup. Best case scenario for areas near coast is a offshore storm that just scrapes the area with light snow. Anything strong will mean interior snow.

Latest models are currently favored to the more out to sea track...

Given the setup, this storm can range form what you see above to an inland storm that hits New England. The middle ground of coastal snow needs to be a perfectly threaded needle.

You can see how model ensembles (main models inputs varied and rerun multiple times to test for possible error) show a spread of solutions. Notice how coastal snow is few and far between ..

This is basically like a roulette wheel for the coasts. Its possible but you need to hit your number.

I am not sure if I am on the out to sea or inland train at this time. Tomorrow morning I will likely give my first idea of what I think happens. 

Looking into the long range, there are some silver linings. Models have been trying to show some stress inflicted onto the polar vortex...

If and when this happens it potentially could finally allow sustainable cold air to come into the pattern by Mid Feb into March. The problem is we do not know if this will verify. The polar vortex has been very resilient this winter so far. This is the single most important factor to watch at this time. Usually, what happens way up there in the stratosphere works its way down to the main levels of the atmosphere 2-3 weeks later.


The polar vortex currently looks very strong like this locking all the cold air up north...

Stay tuned. 

Monday Update: More of the Same, Very Low Weekend Storm Chance

Good morning. This is tuning out to be one of the more snowless winters for many. For the snow lover like me, it is very frustrating but its all part of the game. There are many times where we have streaks of many below average snow winters in a row. Part of the cycle. 

As for our current weather pattern, there is really nothing that is exciting me right now. Over the past several days models have been showing a massive winter storm for this upcoming weekend but I have not bought it.

For example, we went from seeing this epic blizzard...

To this...

I expect this still goes back and forth but the reason I am not expecting much is due to the upper air pattern. We simply do not have the major features I look for to support a snowstorm near coastal areas. What we are left with is a "thread the needle" situation where the timing of upper air disturbances has to be just right for it to snow here. I would not be betting on that.

Looking above we have a few things to note. For one there is no high pressure over Greenland. This means the flow of the jet stream will be quite fast and it all comes down to the timing of the two red circles to come together at the perfect moment to create a storm. The only thing that can help slow this down is that ridge out in the Atlantic but it needs to be sitting in the perfect spot. IF its too strong the storm cuts inland. If its too weak, it goes out to sea.

So as you can see this is a low probability to see a snowstorm this weekend. Yes it can happen but without atmospheric blocking in place I would bet against it.

For the long range there is SOME evidence the polar vortex will start to weaken and there is a chance for some winter to occur by mid February but the jury is still out.

I need to call it as I see it. I hope i am wrong. 

Stay tuned. 

Thursday Update: Weekends a Wash

Not much to say. The storm has trended very warm where even interior New England can now see rain. We will see next 48 hours how this irons out but not a good trend. Winter is having a hard time this year. Pattern stays active next several weeks but question is do any of these storm have cold air to work with. Time will tell. All it takes is one good one to salvage a season. I will keep you guys in the loop.

In case anyone was wondering this is what current model projections look like for this weekend...

We got several waves of storms to follow including next weekend but again is there cold air locked in? Stay tuned.

Wednesday: First General Idea on the Weekend Storm

Good morning. We are about 72 hours away from the weekend storm so its time to start drawing maps and honing in on what I think happens. As usual my first map will be more general in nature and then I will start to show more details by tomorrow. There will be more shifts with this storm so i want to leave a broad stroke for now.

Overall, this is a New England special. Ski areas will be very happy with this storm system. The snow does have a chance to make it down to southern New England and maybe NW NJ into NE PA but that is still an outside chance at this point.

My map below sums this up...

The dark blue areas are were I am very confident there is accumulating snow. I am being conservative with snow amounts as there is a chance the mountains can see over a foot with this system. 

The light blue area is left open due to the chance we see any southern shifts next few days which would be some snow and not all rain. I do not expect any shifts to go further south than this light blue zone. That is why the other areas are all rain.  I am very confident in the green zone. 

Latest model trends have had a bias towards the northern areas...

You can see above the mountains are getting hit hard including the Catskills. This is likely to be close to the final solution.

We will see over next 24 hours if there are any  hints of a shift south.

Stay tuned. 

Tuesday: Starting to Get Clarity, Snowstorm on Tap for Some This Weekend

A  potential winter storm can impact New England and areas of the extreme northern Mid-Atlantic (central and northern PA, NW NJ) and southern New England off the coasts Saturday into Sunday this weekend. 

Good morning. I discussed in good detail yesterday the scenarios for this weekends storm system. I  mentioned how this would either end up pulling north too early causing widespread rain or stay south and roll across the east causing more winter weather. At this time scenario two is becoming more likely but New England is the main target for a snowstorm. 

I am very confident interior New England sees a snowstorm this weekend with the chance that southern New England the the extreme northern Mid-Atlantic states (off the coasts) see a chance to get in on the action.  I will discuss below

Latest models are rolling an upper level low (18000ft low pressure system) directly over the region. The key is where this upper level low is positioned. Heavy snow tends to breakout within 50 miles north of an upper level low. Looking below you can see what that would mean based on the GFS ensemble model...

I highlighted the area in yellow that would likely see a snowstorm in this scenario. Now here is the key, if that upper low shifts more north or south so does that area of heavy snow.

Consequently at the surface things are currently projected to look like this on Saturday night into Sunday...

Notice heavy snow over New England with extreme NW NJ and parts of Southern New England getting in on the action off the coasts as the storm allows cold air to be pulled around the storm system. 

The margin of error of this is prob about 50 miles from my experience. That means this can all shift 50 miles north or south. 

At this time my best estimate of how this evolves is represented good by an average of historical setups similar to this one...

I drew a black line where I think the snow cutoff can be. Notice NW NJ, PA and most of Southern New England off the coasts is in play for Snow. I will emphasize this is not a setup for snow in the coastal areas/cities. Only exception can be Boston but I am not going to make that call at this time. 

My favorite historical case that COULD be similar to this storm is the Christmas day 2002 snowstorm. Here was what that produced. Notice again that sharp cutoff. Do not take these maps verbatim as no two storms are the same. 

That's all for now. More to come tomorrow morning where I will start to hone in. 

Monday: Watching This Weekend for a Storm

Good morning. Cold arctic air has settled into the region and will be here to stay through mid-week. 

We then turn our attention to a storm system that will impact the area this weekend. At this time there is a chance this can be wintery in nature for the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England. I will explain below what will make the difference between seeing rain or an old fashioned snowstorm Saturday. 

First off, we have a nice cold arctic high settled in over our region currently. Temperatures will be in the 20's today then start to climb back to average by Wednesday...

By Wednesday night this cold air moves to the north. Notice even though it warms up a little  over our region, there is a lot of cold air to "tap" sitting up in Canada as seen by the blue and purple colors...

Here lies our key to next weekends storm system. A low pressure system is going to develop over the mid-west and start to roll east...

Now once this storm starts to develop in the mid-west the critical part of this forecast arrives. Does this storm simply move directly east due to strong high pressure to the north blocking its northern advancement, or does some of that high pressure weaken and its allowed to pull north a little? If the latter happens we have a chance at a snowstorm if the former happens its rain.

Lets show both examples...

Example One: High pressure is strong to the north and low is forced to slide east under it.

As the storm slides east it begins to "pull down" that cold air sitting in Canada over our area, also aided by the high pressure to the north...

This means snow can breakout causing a quite signifigant storm Saturday...

Example Two: the high pressure weakens allowing the storm to move more north...

In this scenario because the storm can move more north it does not "tap" the cold air and bring it as far south...

This would mean rain for many with  snow to the north...

So what is influencing weather the high pressure stays strong enough you ask?

All comes down to the arrangement of the atmosphere at 18000 feet...

In the rain scenario, the high pressure weakens due to the energy from our storm interacting with energy in Canada seen below (two circles). This weakens the high pressure and pulls the storm north and also the warm air up to the east coast (red line)...

In the snowstorm scenario the opposite happens. The two pieces of energy do not interact and we have a strong confluent flow providing cold air for the storm to tap as it slides east...

If this occurs everyone from northern New Jersey into New England see a major snowstorm Saturday.


I will end off with the historical analogs showing this is possible as seen by median snowfall based on past similar atmospheric setups...

I will be tracking this all week and have updates daily. Too early to speculate on what i think happens. 

Sunday Morning: Results are In

Overall yesterday worked out well.  A nice light to moderate storm that coating everything and made it feel like winter again. Things get cold next few days helping the snow to stick around. As we head towards the weekend we have another storm system that can be rain or winter precip. I will dive into that tomorrow.

Here was the evolution of my forecast from Monday and actual results (last image)...

Saturday: On Track

No changes to my forecast this morning. That initial batch of snow is now knocking on our doorstep...

I discussed in last nights video that initial wave/thump you see below that was modeled out. 


This is a quick hitter and should be done by 7pm. Most areas do not see much if any rain. Just a light mist after the storm is basically over ex south jersey and the coast. 

Windy and cold tomorrow through early next week.

Stay tuned for updates as snow is underway.

Friday: Final Forecast for Tomorrow

Evening play by play video update: I discuss timing and impacts of tomorrows snowfall...

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Good morning. Below is my final forecast for tomorrow's winter storm. I made just a very small tweak over CT and RI. Everything else has not changed. The storm starts tomorrow by mid to late morning and ends tomorrow night. There will be a 6 hour period of decent accumulating snow. I will have a 7pm video breakdown out on the storm tonight. 

Very cold air rushes in after with gusty winds Sunday and temps very cold for most of next week. We then still have to watch for another winter storm by next weekend. Winter is back!

The air ahead of this storm is very cold as you are all witnessing this morning with temps in the teens and low 20's. I expect due to the cold dry nature of the air mass, it will take some time Saturday morning for the atmosphere to saturate. This could delay start times a little.

Check out this big arctic high pressure that is over the area currently funneling in cold...

When the storm moves in Saturday, warm moist air will move over this cold air causing it to snow...

Warm air will penetrate too far down into the atmosphere for areas in PA, CNJ, SNJ and the coasts causing the snow to change to sleet and maybe some rain by Saturday later in the afternoon...

However despite this, I still expect a decent front end thump of accumulating snow for those areas. That is why I have 1-2 inches.

Very gusty winds and cold temps then move in for Sunday into next week. Below is wind gusts Sunday morning. 

More tonight at 7pm.

Thursday: Updated Snowfall Forecast

Good morning. I am starting to hone in on the storm system for Saturday. Below is my updated map. You can see that although snow should fall even down to the south, accumulations are light in that region. I do not anticipate I will need to lower these anymore. Some models have more than what is shown others have less. I think this is our best bet for this storm system based on my analysis of its evolution...

Regardless of what happens on Saturday. The best chance of winter weather and cold in the east all season will occur in the following two weeks. I still have my eye on a potential storm system towards next weekend.

Lets move back to Saturday....

Storm system approaches from the west late Saturday morning...

By early Saturday evening the storm is still over the region...

Storm ends by Saturday night. 

I will have a video out around 7pm tonight breaking things down more.

Wednesday: Initial Forecast for Saturday's Winter Event

Good morning. Below is my initial snowfall map for Saturday's winter event. I will be updating this map daily if necessary. This will not be a major storm but more of a light to moderate event depending on where you live. The snow arrives for many by late morning Saturday. I expect a quick burst of accumulations then a changeover to some ice and rain for areas to the south. This should be over for most by late Saturday night...

We will have a very cold air mass ahead of this storm due to cold high pressure...

The storm is going to move warmer air into the area but not before it snow for the first several hours of the event. You can not just push cold air away like this too easy...

This then changes over to ice and rain to the south but the initial burst of precipitation i think is most of the storms liquid content...

We then settle into a winter pattern for next week. Although nothing really on the maps yet, i would watch for a storm to develop by the end of next week...

Stay tuned. 

Tuesday Update: No Changes for Weekend Storm

Good morning. I am making no changes to my initial impact map for Saturday's winter storm. Since we are still 4 days out I want to play this conservative for one more day till I start putting specific accumulation amounts. Overall, I believe most areas do see snow. However, any notable accumulations will be NW of I-95. I think CNJ and the surrounding area do see some accumulation just not as much as to the NW...

The light blue zone is where those light accumulations should occur before a change to mixed precip and a little rain. To the NW over NNJ into New England is where I think this storm is more impactful with moderate accumulations. 

The timing of this is Saturday late morning to Saturday night/Sunday morning. 

The period to follow will stay very cold and active and I think we still can see a storm pop up that can impact the region sometime next week.

The biggest feature to watch with this storm is a very strong 1040mb cold high pressure system out ahead of the approaching storm. Even though this high will slide east allowing warm air to win in areas, the strength of this high is impressive. This means there will be dense cold air over the region ahead of the storm that will put up a fight. If the strength of this high verifies I think it means the atmosphere will have no choice but to stay mostly snow for areas to the NW especially before any warmer air wins out.

Stay tuned, will be updating daily.

Monday: Winter Returns, Snow This Weekend

Good morning. We have a week of transition on tap. Temperatures will be around average all week with a few impulses of snow moving through the mountains of New England Wednesday and Thursday. We then turn our attention to a winter storm that looks to hit the region on Saturday. At first glance this is a front end burst of snow changing over to mixed precip for most of the Mid-Atlantic and mostly all snow for New England. The weather pattern then stays cold and active through next week with the chance for another storm to develop the week of MLK day.

Our period of mild weather is over and the pattern is changing. Temperatures will return to normal and then really start to cool down ahead of an approaching storm system on Friday. Below you can see a big area of high pressure moves into the region on Friday....

This drills very dry dense cold air into the region Friday as seen by dew points in the low to negative digits. Dew points are the temperature the air needs to be for water to condensate. The lower they are the colder and drier the air is. You can see below we have a cold dry air mass in place over the Northeast Friday...

This is critical as we have an approaching storm system from the west moving into the region during this same period (Saturday)...

Because the air is so cold and dry out ahead of this approaching storm, the atmosphere will have no choice but to let it snow for most areas Saturday morning even across MD and southern NJ. You can see this in the image above.

However, as the storm gets closer warm air will win for areas to the south and near the coasts, changing a quick burst of snow to a mix and rain by Saturday afternoon. All snow remains to the north...

I drew an initial impact map below that shows what I think will happen with this...

This is subject to change and I will hone in as we get closer.

After this weekend the pattern then looks to stick around with cold air pooled in the east for MLK week...

I am still keeping my eye on the potential for a storm to develop sometime towards the middle of next week which can feature snow further south than our storm on Saturday.

A lot of winter ahead of us. Stay tuned!