The GFS ensemble has been the most aggressive by bringing the cold shot to the east...
The European Ensemble has been consistent in saying the east stays out of the core of the cold and has things quite mild with that southeast ridge.
The Canadian ensemble is a similar to the GFS...
So whats the verdict? An impressive cold surge will enter the central US next week as that massive ridge (red area) over Alaska (quite impressive by the way) blocks any pacific air from entering the pattern. However, I do believe given the seasonal trends the cold air stalls as it heads east due to influence from our stubborn southeast ridge. This means I expect seasonable conditions for the east for Halloween with impressive cold for the central United States.
As we enter the longer range I expect we do see our first impressive shot of cold air the 1st week of November. This could mean mountain snows in New England. However, that southeast ridge will continue to fight back so cold shots will not be very sustainable. This process will continue into the winter but I think starts to breakdown by mid-winter were more sustainable cold shots are likely.
More to come.
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