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The 2023 Winter Outlook

Monday, October 28, 2019

Monday: The First Real Fall Cool Down Comes after Halloween

Good morning. As we put October almost behind us, we now will start looking at what the weather pattern will look like as we start November. 

Starting with Halloween, temps will warm up this week as we approach the holiday and unfortunately a storm system will be cutting to our west on Halloween...

This means a rainy day for trick or treaters. 

In the wake of this storm the first real cold shot of the season come in for the 1st week of November...


The brunt of it will be centered on the central states, but it does bleed east this time.

This means by next weekend/early next week high temps will be in the 50s and lows in the 30s for most areas. It will be colder in New England.

There is the chance that we even see high temps in the 40s with an air mass like this so it bears watching. I also expect some snowfall in the New England mountains and lake effect regions with this air mass next week. 

I still question how long the cooler pattern stays in place after the 1st week of October. Long range models are showing some consistency with a vortex of low pressure trying to sit over central/eastern Canada which does usher in a winter type pattern. However, the pacific needs to behave and we need to see where the ridging and trough relationship sets up...


We will have to monitor this closely. I am not sold yet and honestly do not want too much winter type potential this early as in the past its meant low snowfall winters. Lets save it for December. 


Stay tuned. 

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