The 2020 Winter Outlook

Welcome to the 2020 Winter Outlook! It is always a fun time of year when I begin to speculate on what will happen for the winter season ahead. I will be the first to admit, trying to forecast what may happen in a winter can be a fools errand at times, but there are years where my research and ideas have panned out. So lets jump in and take a look at what to expect for this upcoming season.

The outlook is broken into two sections:

• Section 1: Summary of the Forecast
• Simple and easy to read breakdown of what I am expecting this year

• Section 2: Details behind the forecast
• For those who want to see the methodology

Forecast Summary:

The Winter of 2019-2020 should feature activity from coast to coast this year. I expect an active track of storm systems that will vary from the impacting the Rockies and Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This means very good ski seasons up in New England and out west. However, due to the nature of the storm tracks, I think areas like the Mid-Atlantic run into frequent situations this year with mixed precipitation as storms redevelop from the interior to off the coast. This means snowfall totals in those areas will range from below average from the southern Mid-Atlantic (Baltimore areas) to slightly above average for the northern Mid-Atlantic (NYC areas). Further to the north I expect an excellent season in terms of snowfall (Boston metro, Burlington).

In terms of temperatures, expect a wide area of average winter temps from the central west into the Mid-Atlantic. I do think the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic battles warmer than normal temps for at least a part of this winter season. This is a theme that has been frequent all year and I think it is here to stay through January. For the northern plains and New England, I expect below normal winter temperatures with the core of the cold over the northern plains. There will be some impressive cold shots this year that will rival years past. At times these cold shots will work into the Mid-Atlantic and even Southeast. 

It is hard to nail down when winter will really kick in this year. I am thinking that December is a slow month overall and winter really kicks in by the time January comes along. We may see a few impressive cold shots again in November like last year, but my research is suggesting things may back off again by December. This is the most uncertain part of the forecast.

Impact Maps (click to make bigger):

To help everyone know what average vs above average snowfall for your area, see map below (click to make bigger):

Forecast Details:

For this year I used a combination of analogs (past years that had similar atmospheric setups), long range models and observations to make the forecast. I looked at each piece independently then blended the ideas together to develop the forecast.

Analogs:

The current state of sea surface temperature anomalies in some ways is unique to only recent years. This is due to large areas of above normal ocean surface temperatures especially in the pacific.

See current ocean temperature breakdown...

 

Years in the past that I have found to a similar blend of these sea surface temperatures are below...

It is not perfect, but it hits the overall theme decently well especially in the tropical pacific.

These years blend out to this projection of winter 500mb Heights and 850mb temps...

Which is not too different for years that have ENSO neutral conditions overall...

I even took a look at the top 3 analogs and that resulted in this at 500mb...

As you can see these finding suggest an active winter with cold focused in the central states bleeding over to the northeast.

Models:

Here are the top models I looked at...

European

UKMET

JMA

CFSv2

As you can see they all differ to a degree. However a common theme (exception of the CFS) is to have a colder pool potentially develop in the central states with a southeast ridge fighting against it. If I compare this to my analogs and bring both components closer to each other (average out) we end up with cold air pressing from west to east this winter with a storm track along a fluctuating southeast ridge. Now I think as winter matures this southeast ridge can die this year but for first half of the season I think it takes its toll for areas further south in terms of mixed precip and rain as storms approach. 

Observations:

Snow Cover over Eurasia-

Research has suggested that in years where snow cover is above normal over Eurasia it can lead to a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation due to disruptions of the polar vortex (Dr. Judah Cohen research). This idea has played out decently well historically.

This year snow cover is above normal to an impressive degree...

QBO-

The QBO is a wind pattern in the upper atmosphere near the equator. The winds vary from propagating downward eastward and westward. We currently are in a western phase with easterly winds trying to work down (blue)...

When we see easterly winds (blue) develop and make it down to 50-30mb it can aid in blocking during the winter( high pressure over Greenland). This year it going to be a close call. 

Current Weather Pattern-

There is no denying that over the last 8-12 months the country has seen a persistent southeast ridge of high pressure. This has resulted in record heatwaves for the southern states into south Mid-Atlantic...

Although I do this this can be cut down this winter at times as the season matures, it is hard to ignore what has been so persistent and is right in front of us. I think turning a blind eye to this variable this winter would be a big mistake. 

In addition to this, I have been watching storm tracks develop this fall. So far we have seen a big storms in the west central states and will see a big coastal storm develop in the Northeast this week. Sign of things to come? Maybe.

So there you have it, my 2020 outlook. Hope everyone enjoyed the read and I look forward to reporting to you all this winter season!