Monday Long Range Outlook: Winter Pattern Emerging?

Good morning. As we now enter the colder months of the year, we will start to speculate on what the long range weather pattern has in store. Per my winter outlook (see tap on top of page) last week, I discussed how I thought this would be a very active winter for the country overall but we would see an influence by the southeast ridge which can keep things a little tamer in the Mid-Atlantic states for at least the first half of winter. 

As we enter late October into early November the pattern developing isn't too far off from what I am expecting. Granted, we are not in winter yet and a lot can change but it is interesting to observe.

By next week, we will see a pattern that involves impressing blocking over Greenland and off the West coast...

This will drive very cold air from Canada into the central United states and bleed east for late October. Notice the warmer than normal over the southeast...

Kinda looks like my temperature outlook...

Again, this is not winter so this comparison doesn't really mean much. My only point is that sometimes we see flashes in autumn what the winter pattern may look like. 

So in summary, for those of us in the NYC areas into New England expect some nice shots of cool air filtering through the region next several weeks. As you go further south expect things to stay on the warmer side for this time of year with a few autumn chills in between.

It is going to be very interesting to see if and when this stubborn Southeast ridge breaks down this year. If it does then areas further south see more winter action. If it does not then its more of a winter for the interior northern mid-Atlantic into New England per my forecast.