Tuesday Morning Note: Big Ticket December on The Table

Good morning. As I have been looking at model data over the last several weeks there comes a time where you have seen enough to take a stance on a idea.. In this instance, the case is building for a cold and active December.

The images below show the Canadian, GFS and European ensemble models for the first week of December. I drew out the pattern then show and how it would mean big time cold can enter the weather pattern...

At first glance some might say well it looks warm in some of those models. Not so fast, the key consistency in all three images is a building ridge or rise in the jet stream over western Canada and Eastern Alaska. As I show above this blocks the mild pacific air from hitting the country and instead allows cold arctic air to funnel into the pattern. Trust me if that verifies we will have some big time cold entering the lower 48 this December.. Likely the coldest since 2013. 

In terms of storms, well we can't iron that down this far out but it should be active. Maybe just maybe tis will be the season.