Monday Weather Update: Winter Moves in Fast This Year

Good morning. I spoke in detail last week how I was gaining confidence that this weather pattern would really get active for the end of November into December. This would mean a quicker start to winter this year compared to recent years. There are no changes to those thoughts and everything looks to be on track. The mountain peaks of New England will start to see accumulating snows by the end of this week. We are still a few weeks away for any real snow threats for the I-95 but the frequent shots of arctic air next few weeks will remind us winter is not  far away.

For the most part, this week will feel very seasonable with temperatures in the 40's for highs. As we approach the weekend, a storm system will move through the Great Lakes into New England...

This will cause rain for many areas but i do think we see some snow on top of the mountains of New England Saturday. In the wake of this storm system very cold air returns to the east again by Sunday...

The arrival of this arctic front should result in the lake effect snow engine cranking. The model is trying to show this. Expect heavy lake effects snows for certain regions by Sunday with very cold conditions elsewhere.


This colder pattern then sticks around for the most part due to our jet stream configuration though the end of November....

As I mentioned last week, above is a text book pattern for colder and stormy conditions. We have a big area of high pressure (red) over Greenland which buckles the jet stream in the east causing cold air to funnel south and energy to get clog up. The ridge of high pressure out west enhances this.

To put my speculation hat on, I think we need to watch for a coastal storm just before the Thanksgiving time frame. Certain signals are starting to show up for that period. If that panned out, then we could see a white thanksgiving for interior areas of the Northeast. Of course that is pure speculation for now!

More to come.