Wednesday Morning Note: Models Conflicted In Long Range

Good morning. I wanted to drop a quick note this morning regarding the long range. Over the next 10 days we have a cold and stormier pattern developing along the east as I have been discussing. It will likely snow in interior New England during this time frame with colder than normal conditions for all other areas (starting this weekend). There still is the outside chance we see a bigger coastal storm by the end of next week but it is still pure speculation for now and I am not willing to go out on any limbs at this time. 

I believe that this pattern stays in tact for December. With that being said the models are starting to become very conflicted in the longer range. Below are the GFS, Canadian, and Euro ensembles for the long range period ending 1st week of Dec...

You can see how diluted the images are in terms of the intensity of the colors. This is because ensembles are an average of many different members of the model. By looking above we can see that the overall theme here is that the models can not figure out the exact location of the trough (blue) off the west coast. This results in many different scenarios for where the ridging (red) ends up being in the country. If the trough is more on the west coast it results in a warmer overall pattern, if it is off the west coast then its the pattern I expect.

The one similarity is the high pressure over Greenland in all three. This is a good sign. At the end of the day I am still in the camp that this pattern does deliver as we enter December and the models trend towards my analogs (historical years with similar factors)which look like this...

Only time will tell now. Regardless, we have a very active period about to get underway this weekend through Thanksgiving. Lets keep our eye on for any mischief. 

Thanks for reading.