Friday Update: This Ain't Last Year

Good morning. As I continuously monitor and break down this pattern the more I realize this is nothing like last year at this time. Of course that does not mean we hit an epic period of cold and snow but it does mean the atmosphere should behave differently where an old fashioned December is on the table. 

The models as I have mentioned have been very conflicted in recent days trying to sort out the long range. I expect this to continue as there are many factors that are trying to be processed. Also, this is a critical time of year where the winter pattern and drivers of the winter pattern start to take shape. It is normal to see some model volatility. So far the trend has been for the models to over estimate warmth in the long range and correct back to cold across the east. 

So what does this mean in English? The next coupe of weeks will feature bouts of colder than normal weather mixed with seasonal conditions. As we enter the 1st two weeks of December most areas in the Northeast should see their first taste of winter weather. For interior New England, the ski areas should get a nice head start on a snow pack during this time. 

In terms of any potential storms, we have a very powerful storm that will move through the great lakes this weekend...

Gusty winds and rain for most areas Saturday night into Sunday with back end lake effect and mountain snows....

This paves the way for a chiller week heading into Thanksgiving.

In the long range we need to watch the end of next weekend for a bigger storm...

We will have blocking high pressure over western Greenland (-NAO) pattern, a ridge of high pressure out west that will try to amplify, and potential energy consolidating along the eastern seaboard. If this pans out it will likely mean a larger coastal storm and inland snow. Lets see how it trends.


Thats all for now.