Monday Morning Storm Update: Some Details Still Unclear

Good morning everyone. As we are now closer to the biggest travel day of the year, there are still some details that need to be sorted our for this storm. Here is my original forecast from yesterday morning and it has not changed..

This forecast is based on the fact that the storm tracks closer to the coast and some warmer air works its way into central and southern zones. That is why the accumulations are lower in those areas as things may not stay frozen the whole event. This is supported by the European, British and Canadian models. In this scenario, as I discussed last night, the travel headaches only increase the more north and west you go. Now no forecast is ever easy and there are always going to be variables going against you. In this case, the American models are colder with this storm. This would mean that the accumulations are more than what I have for central and southern areas, but not by a huge degree.

As an example below is the difference between the American, European, and British model on temps at 5,000ft which is a critical level for snow..Anything is blue is cold enough for snow, green and yellow is warm enough for rain

British Model..Supports my forecast of snow north and west of green zone

European Model..Supports my forecast

American Model...Does not support my forecast and is colder  as seen by the blue zone over all of NJ and low further off the coast. In this scenario the 4-8" band would have to be adjusted at least 50 miles to the south and east on my map. 

Bottom line I said it before and I'll say it again. I think you blend this to be 65% European model and 35% American model and you have your forecast.

I advise anyone who has travel plans Wednesday to be prepared for delays in all areas especially north and west. This storm starts in the morning and will only strengthen as the day goes on. By the time we get to the wee hours of Thanksgiving morning we are in the clear.

I will be updating on twitter all day and have another big update tonight at 8pm. If I have to change or tweek my snowfall map that will take place by tomorrow. The key today is going to be if the European model starts to trend east and colder to agree with the American model or vice versa. 

Stay tuned for the verdict!