Sunday Morning: Winter Storm to Effect Thanksgiving Eve Travel Wednesday

Good morning everyone. I now have enough evidence to support the prediction of a possible significant storm to effect the entire area on Wednesday into early Thursday. Snow will fall in many areas away from the coast and potentially several inches of accumulation are possible by the time Thursday morning arrives. Most areas should start off as rain before the changeover to snow, especially areas north and west of I-95. The good news is since we are very early in the season ground temperatures will be marginal at best for many areas which should help hold down accumulations. 

By nature this blog is always going to be a little more aggressive in making a forecast ahead of time. This means that there is always bust potential as public outlets will generally wait an additional 24-48 hours before releasing a real forecast. Since anyone can go to weather.com or weather.gov to watch those forecasts change everyday, the goal here is to study the factors take a stance and see how it plays out. That is the purpose of this blog. If my forecast turns out wrong which in some cases this winter they will, I will be the first to admit it. 

With that being said, here is my preliminary forecast map for the storm to effect the area Wednesday-Thursday early morning..

I think we might get lucky where this storm is mostly liquid for the day light hours on Wednesday giving folks a chance to get to their destinations. The further north and west you go the more chances at travel disruptions as a changeover should occur more rapidly. By the time Thanksgiving morning arrives I expect most areas to be in the clear.

In terms of model guidance the European model continues to be consistent and suggest this is a storm that hugs the coast. The GFS has corrected west but not as far west as the European. What you end up with is a warmer storm with more liquid on the European and a colder storm with less liquid on the GFS. I still like the 65% euro 35% gfs blend.  

I will break down the models later tonight and have a special video that breaks this storm down so be sure to check in 

Stay tuned to this evolving weather situation!